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Jan 87

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    Snow Watch: London, Se England & East Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Paul I may be wrong but I suspect the low & subsequent PPN may be on a slightly southerly track & also looking at the surface obs snow MAY be earlier & more widespread than first thought-

    What do you think?

    as for the ensembles- still concerning wrt the operational

    S

    Yes, the higher res operationals are picking up those bloody shortwaves near Iceland. We might get away with it like ECM shows but I'm a bit worried

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It must be a little frustrating in certain areas of the se to see the same places which have had lots of snow have more again with the Channel Low at the moment looking a little too far north. These features are always notoriously difficult to model with the track changing right upto the last minute so don't throw the towel in just yet. Even if the low does go a little too far north theres still a chance that as it clears eastwards there could be some backedge snow. :yahoo:

    Its better to have low expectations, then we wont be disappointed like last thurs and fri.

    This is a nowcast event. The low could easly track 100 miles further south or north.

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Temp 1.9 dp 0.7 Its getting there slowly,i know we run the risk south east of london of the ppn fizzling out but any thing sooner would be rain anyhows,i wonder if the small disturbance east of Scotland holds itself together whether it will come down the North sea? :shok:

    That would only get here by tomorrow morning if at all.

    That stuff to the SW is what we should be looking at now. It might shift east along the south coast or move NE towards London

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well as I see It.

    Precip now still moving North, Some Precip towards the North West of our Region will Pivot back SE'Wards and Fragment and die off, Skies Clearing tonight to leave a Harsh Frost.

    Met Office still warning and expect those to come down as the day wears on.

    That good enough Smurf ?? :):)

    What about that stuff to the SW? Where is that going to go. Some convection seems to be taking place

    Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi stewfox,

    I think I reacted to the Meto updated warning for London/Surrey re. ppn arriving early afternoon, in this area.

    But having looked at GFS pressure charts colder air cant really return south of the Thames until low pressure over France moves east of the Greenwich meridian, which it doesnt seem to do until after 6 p.m and by that time ppn may well start to fizzle out anyway, if not before. Hope I'm wrong, big time.

    Regards,

    Tom.

    Dont give up yet, It might pivot and move back south. Also stuff moving up from the SW which may pivot. Also a polar low east of Scotland which may develop into something tomorrow

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