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Thundery wintry showers

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  1. Thundery wintry showers
    Here's an exploration of various possibilities on issues relating to religions and spirituality. I have some clear-cut beliefs on this, but as you will see, plenty of areas where I believe that the truth could be anything across a wide range of possibilities.

    First of all, I don't think there is a god of the kind that the Bible described, that created the world in six days, Adam and Eve etc. There are far too many contradictions, far too many scientific discoveries re. evolution that cannot be realistically challenged while maintaining a literal interpretation of the Bible, etc. For those who are interested in this disproof, check out this link which inspired this blog entry: [url="http://alphacoursereview.wordpress.com/"]http://alphacoursereview.wordpress.com/[/url]
    This blog entry is remarkably similar to the experiences I've had with fundamentalist Christian types in the past, which in turn caused me to reject the religion.

    But does the above prove that there is no greater power of any kind, a generic "god" of some kind? I don't think so. Yes, many people like to believe in life after death, that there is a "guardian angel" or god or something watching over them and helping them, and that supernatural things exist. It is a comforting way of thinking, and from experience, I also think this is why many children are fond of the concept of Santa Claus. But that doesn't mean that nothing of the sort exists. There might be some kind of extra spirituality that we can't see or hear. People could be using these comforting thoughts to try and assemble these percieved paranormal experiences into something comforting, and perhaps that's where a lot of the religions originally came from. But maybe, just maybe, there might be something real behind at least some of it.

    An alternative possibility, which understandably gets up many people's backsides as it attacks comfort zones (I know this, as it attacks quite a few of mine!) but shouldn't be discounted, is that there really is no life after death, no existence beyond what we know. That said, one major reason why I often get defensive when people preach this view isn't that it attacks comfort zones, but rather that many atheists tend to preach with a lot of the same narrow-mindedness and arroagance that many fundamentalist Christians do.

    And another alternative that few consider- it may be that there is indeed an afterlife, and/or extra "beings" of greater existence that we don't know about- but that the reality is a lot more mundane than the religions suggest. "God" could be to humans as humans are to ants, in terms of intellectual understanding of things that our brains are too limited to grasp. Getting confused? Well, it serves to illustrate that when you start thinking about this sort of thing with an open mind... well, the possibilities are near-endless!
  2. Thundery wintry showers
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/8553629.stm

    As someone posted in the Comments section, the main arguments against any kind of technology seem to be:
    [quote]1) it slows the game down
    2) controversy is part of the beauty of the game[/quote]

    I'll give my twopenny's worth:
    1. too much "black and white" thinking and slippery slope fallacies I reckon. It's important that we don't implement technology to such an extreme that it will seriously disrupt the flow of the game, but there is such a thing as "striking a balance" that seems to pass over quite a number of the nay-sayers.

    2. I do think football needs a bit of controversy, but there is a big difference between controversy over contentious issues (which is often good for a sport) and controversy over obvious injustices which annoy a lot of those involved. No amount of technology would remove the need for referees, at times, to make decisions that are open to considerable debate. Of course there's also the usual "maintaining the status quo" arguments to defend point 2, e.g. "the traditional approach to the injustices associated with officiating always used to be 'that's life', so why change that?"- without the dominance of arguments like those I reckon the world as a whole would be a fairer place.

    I don't just look at this from the players' and supporters' point of view, I also think of it from a referees' perspective (as presumably does Graham Poll as an ex-referee). The "respect" campaign is always at risk of being one-sided if there isn't an onus on referees to do a good job as well as players/managers, but referees are only human like the rest of us and it would help if it was made easier for them to do a good job.
  3. Thundery wintry showers
    So, onto another of my pet rants, the idea that we should be of a two-season persuasion, one being "winter mode" where we're interested only in cold and snow, and another being "summer mode" where we're only interested in heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. So once a certain time arrives in spring, you're supposed to "move on" from "winter mode" to "summer mode", and if you show any desire for cold/snow, you are clinging onto the past instead of moving on.
    I've never agreed with the idea that moving on is about cutting old things out of one's life (for instance, the old family values saying that you need to periodically cut out old friends to make way for new ones). But this is something else, because spring is a time of year when traditionally, it can still snow, indeed in many regions snow is no less likely on Easter Day than it is on Christmas Day. So, basically, the argument runs that we should be cutting out all desire for something that still exists in the present, in order to "move on" to circumstances that don't apply for another two-three months. What part of 'living in the present' does this come under?
    Let's be fair here, people are entitled to not want cold weather or snow in spring, or indeed any time of the year. But I can't stand views like this:
    1. I don't want cold weather in spring.
    2. Therefore, all spring cold must bring miserable weather.
    3. Therefore I hope that any spring cold snap brings miserable weather, to show the stupid snow lovers who are clinging onto the past instead of moving on, that I am right, and cold weather in spring is useless. I don't care that it would ruin my ability to go outside more than sunshine and scattered wintry showers would, the most important thing is for me to be right and people who cling onto winter to realise that I'm right, and move on.
    Rant over.
  4. Thundery wintry showers
    Jan '84 was an exceptionally snowy month from the Midlands northwards, but quite mild with relatively little snow south of the Midlands. Certainly an interesting-sounding month.
    But I think January 1958 was even more interesting. It began with a rather chilly NE'ly:
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119580102.gif
    Then the Atlantic came pouring in for about ten days, with some cooler NW'lys interspersed with mild SW'lys and some rough winds:
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119580107.gif
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119580109.gif
    Then an anticyclonic spell in the third week:
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119580116.gif
    Then a remarkable northerly, assisted by a strong Greenland/Atlantic block, that persisted for a week and brought severe cold and heavy snowfalls from polar lows over much of the country:
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119580121.gif
    Then an exceptional mild end:
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119580127.gif
    We hear a lot about Januarys 1984 and 1987, and rightly so- those months featured some remarkable weather. But for me, the Holy Grail has to be January 1958, as it was the month that had everything.
  5. Thundery wintry showers
    I don't have the time (or will) to put in complete summaries for Jan, Feb and Mar, but here is a brief outline.
    January 2006: Max 6.6, min 1.4, mean 4.1, precip 30mm, sleet/snow falling 2, snow lying 0.
    It was a benign, and rather uninteresting month, and very dull until the final third, which was relatively sunny. The least warm January since 2001.
    February 2006: Max 7.1, min 2.0, mean 4.5, precip 22, sleet/snow falling 3, snow lying 1.
    Quite similar to January, with an easterly non-event during the last week- temperatures were no lower than average for the time of year! The only cold snap of note occurred on the last day, with a northerly bringing some snow flurries and a dusting of lying snow at 0900. The month was slightly duller than average. It was the least warm February since 2003, and the driest since 2003.
    (Note: I say "least warm" because temperatures were, if anything, slightly above the long-term normal)
    March 2006: Max 7.2, min 1.4, mean 4.3, precip 57, sleet/snow falling 11, snow lying 5.
    It was the snowiest March for snow falling since I started taking records, beating the previous record of 10 days in March 1995; for snow lying it was equal snowiest since 2001. A cold, bright snowy first week was followed by a brief mild interlude. Then after a classic mild vs cold battleground around the 12th, with the coldest day maximum in March since 1996, it was generally cold and cloudy. The sun re-emerged around the 22nd/23rd, then the last week was very mild and unsettled, but not mild enough to offset the cold weather of the first three weeks.
    Overall, it was the coldest and wettest March since 2001, but the average maximum was the lowest since 1996. It was slightly duller than the long-term normal, but less so than last year, sunshine totals certainly boosted by the exceptional first week.
  6. Thundery wintry showers
    July 2005 began with me taking a fortnight's holiday in France. The first three days were sunny and quite hot with a 32C on the 3rd, the day when I went to see the French Grand Prix (and subsequently suffered heat-stroke)
    The weather turned rather cloudy during the following few days. I remember one day with a little sunshine and a few convective showers, but most of the time it was dull.
    In the second week- which I spent near Strasbourg- the weather was hot and sunny with occasional thundery showers, particularly during the first half of the week. Temperatures reached highs of 27-30C, which I would find uncomfortably hot in this country, but over there the air was much cleaner and fresher and the humidity lower, and in any case the showers and thunderstorms were spectacular.
    Meanwhile, Britain (well at least most of Britain) was very sunny and dry, and hot too with 27-30C reported also, even in the north.
    The second half was spent in Tyne & Wear- and it was excessively dull, with cool days and warm nights.
    On my rating system, the month averaged 55%, but the final third averaged only 25%, offsetting a high-scoring first half. The last July to average a sixties score was back in 1999!
  7. Thundery wintry showers
    Here's a recap on my month-ahead forecast for July:
    [quote]With pressure often high in the Arctic and low pressure systems taking a relatively southerly track, it will be another cool cloudy wet month, though probably not as cloudy or wet as June was.

    July has commenced cloudy and wet, but as we head through the first week the emphasis will shift towards sunny intervals mixed with slow-moving thundery downpours. The 3rd July will have an area of cloud and persistent rain moving through Wales and most of the southern half of England, while northern England, Ireland and Scotland will be bright with showers. Between the 4th and 7th July slow-moving showers will be heavy and thundery, particularly in north-east England on the 4th, though not quite as severe as some places experienced back on the 28th June. South-eastern Britain will see relatively few showers and a fair amount of sunshine in between. Another exception will be northern Scotland which will be rather grey and cool with rain at times. Temperatures will range between 18 and 22C for most parts of the country, not far from the seasonal norm. Sunshine amounts for the first week will probably be close to or just below average, while rainfall will vary widely, though mostly above normal away from south-east England.

    During the second week of July the low pressure area will drift out into the North Sea, allowing a chilly north to north-easterly airflow to dominate over the British Isles, with temperatures below normal everywhere. Under the influence of the low, most of central and southern England will see further showers and an increasing chance of longer spells of rain, and the period will thus be considerably wetter and cloudier than average in those areas. Northern and western areas, closer to the high pressure, will turn drier during the second week, with sunshine and rainfall amounts consequently close to normal in the west (perhaps above normal in western Scotland), but much below normal in the east.

    There are signs that towards the third week, the low pressure to the south-east will weaken and this will allow highest pressure to transfer southwards towards the Azores. As a result, we will start to see a north-south split across the UK; most of Scotland and northern England will be cloudy and quite cool with some rain at times, particularly in the west, but southern areas will see some drier, brighter and warmer interludes due to being close to a ridging Azores High. Temperatures and sunshine amounts will probably only be close to average though.

    Any particularly warm, sunny weather is likely to be reserved for the last third of July. The general emphasis is likely to remain on changeable conditions with low pressure systems tracking across at intervals, but one or two interludes of warm, drier and possibly sunnier weather are likely, most especially over southern parts of the British Isles. On the whole, the last third of July is likely to be statistically near-average for temperatures, rainfall and sunshine, though with the east drier and sunnier relative to normal than the west.

    July 2012 is likely to be another fairly cool summer month, with a Central England Temperature of 16.0C. Temperatures are likely to range from 1.0-1.5C below the 1981-2010 average in northern Scotland, to around 0.5C below in most other parts of the British Isles.

    It will be another wet month; the first half will be particularly wet in north-east England, while the second half will be wet in the north-west, but not generally as wet as June. Rainfall is expected to range from 40-80% above normal over much of Scotland and north-east England to just 0-20% above in south-east England.

    Sunshine will range from near normal in southern England to 30-40% below in north-east Scotland, while other regions will generally have a small shortage of around 10-20%.
    [/quote]

    I feel that this was certainly one of my better forecasts, with most of the right weather patterns correctly identified- in particular the suggestion of one or two warm dry sunny interludes towards the south in the last third of the month did indeed materialise. However, I somewhat overestimated sunshine amounts during the first week- the low pressure ended up further south than I expected and as a result the weather ended up exceptionally cloudy in most regions rather than just the northern half of Scotland as predicted.
  8. Thundery wintry showers
    These stats are copied from my June 2006 weather summary in the thread. I could sue myself for infringing my own copyright and make myself put up with Starforce 3.0 Professional copy protection just to read my discussion (only kidding; been uninstalling a computer game because of above issue)
    Statistics for June 2006, relative to estimated 1971-2000 averages for the location:
    Mean max: 18.8C (+2.2)
    Mean min: 11.2C (+2.0)
    Mean: 15.0C (+2.1)
    Difficulties with rainfall recorder- only 2mm, which I don't trust at all, though it was certainly a very dry month.
    Warmest: 24.8C (12th)
    Lowest max: 12.6C (25th)
    Highest min: 15.4C (17th)
    Lowest min: 7.6C (27th)
    The first 12 days of June in Cleadon were dry and very sunny in general, though cooling sea breezes ensured that the maxima weren't particularly high during the first 10 days; as the wind changed to a southerly the 11th and 12th were very warm.
    From the 13th onwards the weather was rather cloudy and dry with a fair amount of anticyclonic gloom, though the month ended with a couple of sunny days. It continued rather warm, primarily by night,
    It was the warmest June since 2003 at Cleadon. The average minimum was actually 0.1C higher than 2003 (although given inhomogeneities in my records, not statistically significant) but the average maximum was 0.6C lower. The sunshine excess of 1-12 June was largely negated by the mainly cloudy weather thereafter, with an excess of around 10% according to the Met Office sunshine maps. This means that June 2005 was actually sunnier than June 2006, while the last significantly sunnier June occurred as recently as 2003.
    Leeds did rather better sunshine wise, with an excess in the 20-30% region.
  9. Thundery wintry showers
    So, how late does spring normally arrive in this country? And what do we mean by "spring"? Personally I am happy to accept and follow the meteorological definition (1st March to 31st May) and think in terms of spring as meaning increasing daylight and sunshine hours and plant growth. I can certainly see a case for arguing that wintry weather persisting largely without a break well into March (as per 1996, 2001 and 2006) might be realistically considered as a "late spring".

    But no, let's try the Net-Weather Definition. For it to be "spring" it must meet the following criteria:
    [list]
    [*]it must be warm and settled, with temperatures regularly in the teens,
    [*]there must be no more snow or frost for the rest of the season.
    [/list]

    By this definition, when did Spring arrive across the UK as a whole since 1990? Answers below:

    1990- 29th April
    1991- early May
    1992- mid May
    1993- we didn't have a spring that year
    1994- 28th April
    1995- 20th May (or, if the period around 20 May wasn't settled enough, perhaps we didn't have a spring that year either)
    1996- 30th May (OK, no real spring that year either!)
    1997- 24th May (yes, a 1-week spring- now what were March & April 1997 like again? Doesn't matter, it snowed in May!)
    1998- 30th April
    1999- 25th April
    2000- 30th April
    2001- 30th April
    2002- 25th March
    2003- 14th April
    2004- 30th March
    2005- we didn't have a spring that year
    2006- 15th April (or if you count late May 2006 as "wintry", maybe this year also failed to feature Spring?)
    2007- 1st April
    2008- 5th May
    2009- 12th March

    So by this measure many people are probably going to have to wait quite some time for "Spring"!
  10. Thundery wintry showers
    In some ways this spell is starting to remind me of the sense I had during July 2006. Until that month, I'd thought that I had a limited tolerance of prolonged heat and sunshine- but I soon found that if it's generally on the low side of 30C, and interspersed with the odd showery/thundery outbreak for variety, I can easily "tolerate" it for upwards of an entire month (more like "find it very enjoyable").

    The same is happening here with the cold snowy spell. Having had a fair dumping up in Tyneside (12cm on New Year's Day) I am now finding myself willing Norwich to catch up with the Tyneside snow depths. It's a tall order, but with a dumping likely tomorrow, not out of the question.

    It hasn't changed my stance on what I would like to see for February and the spring either- a February of alternating cold snowy and milder spells, and then a spring with frequent warm sunny weather but interspersed with switch-arounds and northerly outbreaks. As far as January is concerned, we're locked into this cold spell and Norwich only has about 3-4cm so far, so it may as well continue through to at least the middle of the month, as I don't see myself tiring of it before then.
  11. Thundery wintry showers
    In recent years Philip Eden has repeatedly voiced a concern that as a society, our reactions towards normal wintry weather have become more and more intolerant, and it could get very ugly if we were to get a severe wintry spell. The latest wintry episode has shown that it isn't the general public who are intolerant, it is the media, which makes an enemy of the weather and wants us all to do the same.

    News broadcasts around 4-8 January were full of stories of the misery and inconvenience that the snow causes, footage of people telling the reporters how disgraceful the snow is, and how lovely it would be to enjoy two weeks of drizzle, 3-5C and hardly a glimmer of sunshine. They clearly chose their cross-sections carefully. Had they gone to UEA they'd have had a much harder time getting their message across, amidst the hundreds of people sledging, chucking snowballs, building snowmen and laughing their heads off.

    Meanwhile, there are far more than just a few childish weather enthusiasts getting sick and tired of the current dull drizzly spell and wishing that we could have the bright snowy weather back. The news and tabloids and weather forecasts seem blissfully unaware that those people actually exist. But they do.

    The bright, snowy weather was perfect for alleviating symptoms of SAD, with the combination of sunlight and reflective snow cover. It helped gather communities together, playing out in it, appreciating the impact it had on our surroundings, and helping out the less fortunate among us that were heavily inconvenienced by it. For many weather enthusiasts, in the meantime, there was a lot to discuss and a lot to appreciate.

    In our world of market economics and Health & Safety we are becoming too disconnected from the physical world around us, and losing sight of the social factors which contribute to making people happier. Weather enthusiasts are doing society a service by illustrating that there is value in appreciating the asthetic and pleasurable things in life, things that economics alone cannot measure, things like the awe of an electrical storm, the beauty of a double rainbow, the eerieness of a misty, hazy, bright red sunset shining onto layers of illuminated cloud. They should not be made to feel guilty for appreciating unusual or dramatic weather out of "respect" for those who suffer from it- this is otherwise known as martyrdom. Why are those who love mild dull drizzly weather not required to feel guilty because of the misery it causes to snow lovers, sun lovers and SAD sufferers alike? Because mild dull drizzly weather doesn't damage the economy, that's why.

    So, by all means, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Not just because it keeps snow enthusiasts happy, but because it continually highlights the fact that our world is too focused upon money, and that we should really start taking more notice of the other things that help to make the world tick over.
  12. Thundery wintry showers
    We are increasingly looking like being locked into a prolonged cold spell, which may be snowy in the east and south- similar to January 1985. February looks at this stage like being somewhat milder, but whether it will be mild throughout, or a mix of mild and cold spells, remains to be seen.

    I reached 12cm snow on New Year's Day and had 2 large snowmen built in the front garden- 12cm is the deepest snow at Cleadon, alongside February 2004, since February 1991. There is more chance of snow on every day through to the 5th, when I head back to Norwich, as long as there isn't too much disruption on the trains (oo-er!). The 4th looks quite marginal, but less so than the 1st/2nd.

    There probably won't be much snow in Norwich before I get there, but after I get there, with a pronounced easterly or north-easterly flow likely to set in for a week, that is likely to change. I may miss out on the largest snow depths in Cleadon, as there will be more accumulating snow there after I leave, but similar depths may well be reached in Norwich by around the 10th January as prolonged ENE'lys are ideal for snow streamers in the Norwich area.

    The question is, when does the point come when I get sick of all of this cold and snow? I had initially assumed it would be about a week or two, but in practice it is proving to be a lot longer than I'd expected. I'm becoming less averse to the idea of a pattern change to milder weather as time goes on, but it isn't approaching the stage where I start actively hoping for one. Perhaps the fact that we've had such a long run of mild winters, the sense that this could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to witness an 80s style cold spell, and the fact that the snow depths haven't been extortionate, are contributing to this.

    As John Holmes has often indicated, in a cold spell like this people need to take care of elderly and fragile people they know of, as many of these will suffer, particularly in areas hit by heavy energy bills. Cold/snow lovers should not feel guilty for enjoying this cold snowy weather, or for wishing for more of it, especially as the weather is something that we can't control, and making an enemy of snow or suppressing one's desire for it doesn't achieve anything positive (contrary to what the media seems to think!). But the health of those who struggle to cope in these situations is something that many of us can and should help.
  13. Thundery wintry showers
    One week further on, and somewhat surprisingly, I finished the Doom 3 level episode- today! The penultimate level took three months to create (although I spent a lot of that time doing things other than level editing), then the last level took just one week.
    Thus I should even get some tinkering done with the earlier levels before I go to Norwich.
    Otherwise have enjoyed two nice sunny days, after the persistent cloud cover of the past week. Yesterday had a nice meal at an Italian restaurant and got pretty stuffed. The Bank Holiday weekend looks like a 'sunny intervals' fest, on the eastern periphery of our high.
  14. Thundery wintry showers
    Okay, after a few rants, I thought it was worth redressing the balance with updates on my own life.
    PhD still continuing at a steady rate, while in the meantime I had another reunion with old schoolfriends back in March- a very satisfying experience. Then I enjoyed the storms and convection during the first half of April (I forgot to upload my subsequent photos of cumulonimbus cells and lightning- will do soon). I like to pop down to the Grad Bar on some evenings and get a game of pool in- the recent snooker championships have spurred me into a desire to play more cue-based games. (I'm particularly proud that I can play snooker/pool with both hands, though obviously not as well as Ronnie O'Sullivan).
    The current weather is quite amazing for the time of year, not exceptional in itself, but if current model runs are near the mark, its persistence will be unusual- temperatures widely into the 20s and mostly unbroken sunshine rarely lasts for more than a few days in May. I didn't feel as enthusiastic about this kind of weather in April 2007, after the abnormal warmth of the preceding half-year, but this feels different- we've had quite a varied spring so far with plenty of cold synoptics and wintry, showery weather, so a notably warm, sunny May would provide a suitable contrast with the frequent average to cool weather of March and April.
    Indeed, as I started taking weather records in 1993 (just after the remarkable May 1992), the only really summer-like May that I can vividly remember was that of 2001, although 2004 was also pretty good in Lancaster. But I really do think that May 2008 is likely to be every bit as exceptional as those of 1989 and 1992, maybe even more so.
  15. Thundery wintry showers
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/science/news/article.cfm?c_id=82&objectid=10565358

    I see that according to this link, there's a project to make the world's weather records freely available on the internet. I can see a lot of advantages behind this, including the points made on the site. It may make it easier to get access to all climate data for use in climate change analysis (such as for the IPCC reports) and studying of local climates to help identify hazards and recurrence of extreme events.

    The points about curiosity about past weather events should not be overlooked. I'm always on the lookout for North East weather data from the period 1993 onwards to see how other nearby sites' observations differed from my own observations for Cleadon, plus it would be interesting to finally see what the weather was doing on June 22nd 1984 for example.

    In addition it would help clear up all of the arguments surrounding availablility of the climate data that is used by various climate scientists, as I quite often see the scientists getting flak for hiding data when really it's more of a copyright issue.

    Talking of copyright, that's the one disadvantage of making these records freely available. Do weather companies make much in the way of money by making them available only commercially, and does this help the weather community as a whole? I'm not knowledgeable enough on the rights and wrongs of this to know the true answers to that- plus I have vested (mainly curiosity-based) interests in it, but it's clear that this will be the main barrier to making records freely available.

    One feasible middle ground for those worried about copyrights and revenues could be to make records freely available for non-commercial use only, or Philip Eden's method of restricting the use of long quotations without permission, or quotation without acknowledging the source.

    On a related note, I'm currently doing a major redesign of the "Cleadon Weather Records" section of my website, where I will soon be uploading a new revised version which will hopefully look more professional and user-friendly and contain a bit more information on the observational side (a section on "significant events" for each month). This approach is inspired partly by an article of Philip Eden's in "Weather" where he correctly points out that the recent move towards automated weather stations is coming at the expense of traditional observational diaries. I'm aware that one day, these records could potentially be of use to people, and I am happy to employ a similar approach to what Philip himself does with making his weather records available.
  16. Thundery wintry showers
    In Cleadon, Tyne & Wear, the statistics were as follows:
    Mean Max 14.8
    Mean Min 7.2
    Mean Temp 11.0
    Warmest: 20.9C (5th)
    Coldest max: 9.3C (13th)
    Coldest: 1.7C (14th)
    Warmest min: 11.8C (18th)
    Precip: 39mm (I think my rain gauge might have under-recorded slightly!)
    Air frosts: 0
    Fog 1, Hail 0, Thunder 0, Sleet/snow 0.
    In Cleadon the first half was warm, though less so than in many other regions of the country, with the wind off the sea helping keep maximum temperatures down. The second half was cooler than the first half, for the first time in May since 2000. The second half was unsettled and windy with westerly winds.
    The month as a whole was about 0.8C up on the local long-term average, but was the warmest May only since 2004. The 13th featured the first single-digit maximum in May since 1997, but occurred due to extensive cloud cover, whereas the 1997 single-digit maximum was associated with a day of sunshine and snow showers.
    Spring 2006 as a whole was the coldest spring since 2001, but also the sunniest in the area since 2003. However, this hides the fact that March was quite dull, and May near average, with April having sunshine about 40% above the local average.
    Leeds
    In Leeds the month had a rather different character, with an exceptional warm and sunny first half (23-24C reached on a couple of occasions) and a cool unsettled second half. Convective storms were a regular feature of the month in Leeds with three thunderdays, all of which featured quite impressive thunderstorms. All in all, I was happy to be here rather than in Cleadon.
  17. Thundery wintry showers
    On cold-related deaths, I argue that they should not be cited as a reason why people should prefer mild.

    Cold-related deaths reduce when, in isolation, we have a winter that is mild relative to the average for recent years. But when we have a succession of mild winters, people get used to a milder average, and less prepared for a given degree of cold than before. Thus, in the short term milder winters mean less deaths, but in the long term they do not.

    Interestingly it's similar with snow- snow causes a lot more disruption in London and Paris than it does in Moscow, simply because it is much rarer in those cities and so the residents are less prepared for it.

    This doesn't just have relevance to weather type preferences. It is also a strong counter to the argument that we should welcome global warming because it will reduce cold-related deaths in winter. In practice the evidence just doesn't bear this out.
  18. Thundery wintry showers
    Some may have wondered what on Earth I was blithering on about in the monogamy thread and some other related ones.

    I don't have a problem with the demand for [i]sexual[/i] monogamy (except when it's thrust upon people who consent to having "open" relationships). My opinion on polygamous/polymorous relationships has changed a fair bit since posting in the "Monogamy" thread, as there is strong evidence that they are eminently workable in cultures that don't frown upon them. However, at the same time, I think especially in the current cultural climate it's fair to call violating an agreement on sexual monogamy "cheating".

    Where I have a problem is with the demand for [i]emotional[/i] monogamy- expressed in simple terms, "I don't want you loving anyone but me". Emotional monogamy isn't actually as simple as that, because it normally excludes love for family members (because "family is different") and often excludes female-on-female friendships ("best girlfriends" etc). The effect of "emotional monogamy" is to forbid heterosexual men from bonding emotionally with anyone other than family, prohibiting opposite-sex friendships and also prohibiting male-on-male friendships that aren't restricted to purely social bonding. The main basis behind this is the stereotype "heterosexual men don't show emotion unless there's a sexual motive" as well as a legacy of the fear of homosexuality that prevailed in the early 20th century. (It's ironic, as it's usually women and homosexuals who get a raw deal with these traditional values of patriarchal origin- but heterosexual men get a raw deal too if they choose to deviate from the archetypal, macho, emotionally-stunted male gender role).

    I have particularly serious concerns over the concept of "emotional cheating", defined as feeling closer to an opposite-sex friend than to one's partner, or confiding in an opposite-sex friend about problems that are occurring within one's partnership. (Maybe it's primarily a US thing?) Yes, sometimes people do use emotional manipulation to break apart partnerships, but by no means is this confined to opposite-sex friends (family members are just as capable) and what happens when a partnership becomes unstable or abusive? By those definitions of "emotional cheating" any platonic opposite-sex friend becomes a sitting duck waiting to be scapegoated for the problems within the partnership.

    I may have been unlucky with friendships over the years, but there's surely other men out there who would love to be able to express emotion freely with others, in the way that women can, but are frightened to because of the risk of getting in serious trouble for "emotionally cheating" on someone or, worse still, having their affection misinterpreted as attempted molestation. In my opinion we should all be allowed to love and care for one another. By all means people should continue to have partnerships and deal with genuine third-party attempts to undermine them, but society would be a lot better off if people (especially men) felt able to care generally for others rather than just members of their families.
  19. Thundery wintry showers
    So, following on from my latest blog on transport, I came across an article relating to Top Gear on the internet.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/blog/2009/aug/03/clarkson-hints-top-gear-over?commentpage=1

    Some very, er, revealing comments here!

    [quote]If only it could be removed this programme has probably caused more deaths on our roads than any other with its glamourisation of fast cars and speed over everything else.Why not introduce a weekly crash analysis slot into the show if it must continue to explain how the most recent deaths and serious injuries occured with police and road safety professionals to give their comments.[/quote]

    [quote]The BBC should replace top gear with cycling gear a new show looking at all aspects of cycling club road ,commuter and touring this would be a much more sustainable and socially responsible approach to broadcasting,yes it is probably only a dream but if only it could happen...............[/quote]

    [quote]
    Beauty of the car? An ugly metal and glass box that pollutes the planet, clutters up every inch of our streets, makes us fat and lazy and gives our kids asthma? Where's the beauty? The sooner this programme finishes the better - it's a product of the past, rather like the Black & White Minstrals in the late 70s.[/quote]

    [quote]At first glance this story seems cause for celebration. Top Gear ending, some good news amidst the depressing headlines. But think about it, with the current BBC commissioning policies TG would probably be scrapped to make way for an even less intelligent, dumbed down petrol head's fantasy show. If such a thing is possible.[/quote]

    [quote]

    *Warning to simple people*
    Don't say "if you don't like it, don't watch it."
    It doesn't matter whether we watch it or not: attitudes towards speed and responsibility leak out into wider society.
    [/quote]

    [quote] [quote]Many people are into cars because of something that comes naturally to humans. its called FUN. People drive these because they are fun to drive. It is easy to get attached to something, not just it goes fast and looks cool, you have a genuinely good time in it. That is why Clarkson and many others, including myself, dread the day when we have to say goodbye to our cars, our fun.[/quote]
    And when you die horribly in a gruesome car smash, I shall dance merrily on your freshly dug grave and dance a merry jig as your no doubt tea-soaked relatives blub tunelessly into kitchen roll. And for an encore, I will squat down and parp out the brownest turds of the purest joy, splattering your newly-chiselled headstone mischievously filling the grooves of sorrow.[/quote]

    A perfect illustration of why I defend motorists so much these days. Part of it is simply a backlash against attitudes like the above, which I expect will become more prevalent as time goes by.
  20. Thundery wintry showers
    PhD still going okay, and still enjoying the work for the most part. The fine spell of weather looks like being downgraded, here's hoping that the NE'ly brings my favourite convective "sunshine and showers" stuff and not the usual low cloud.

    I continue to strongly dislike the way the UK is going regarding personal liberty:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8249020.stm
    As an individual measure it might not seem too bad, but the logical end result of incremental steps like these is a society where you cannot go within a few metres of a child unless you can prove that the child is "family" (i.e. related to within a few generations). Meanwhile of course child molestation will continue to occur on an infrequent basis within families, a consequence of families being exempt from these measures.

    I just hope the UK doesn't follow the USA's lead and become similarly hysterical over harassment and sex abuse in general, rather than just against children.

    On a lighter note, I'm liking the look of the upcoming football season. Man Utd haven't got as strong a squad as in the past, and are missing Cristiano Ronaldo rather more than they would like. Chelsea have a formidable team but their current manager is unproven and they are facing a transfer ban- which might not affect them too much, it depends on how many injuries they get. Arsenal are looking quite good. I felt quite gutted at their loss to Man Utd, as they were IMHO the better side for most of the game, but they are showing encouraging signs of being close to their best. Arsenal were, in my view, probably denied a stonewall penalty early in the game because of the memories of Eduardo's blatant dive. I don't think Liverpool will be challenging for top spot this year though.

    And as for England- I always had high hopes that Capello might be able to mould the team into a cohesive unit that plays well. It is looking strongly as if my hopes were not misplaced. I don't expect England to win the Cup but a quarter or semi final spot would still be a success after the depths of the Steve McLaren era.
  21. Thundery wintry showers
    I've been quite a big critic of the F1 penalties for wheel-to-wheel incidents this year, although having recently seen the "Senna" movie, we are still in a much better position than we were a couple of decades ago, when inconsistency was rife, relatively minimal penalties like drive-throughs didn't exist and some drivers got away with a lot while others got banned for multiple races.

    While the introduction of lesser penalties such as drive-throughs and time penalties are a positive thing, I think they've led to the rulemakers feeling compelled to give out penalties for the slightest infringements. I think this fails to acknowledge the fact that, if drivers are racing wheel to wheel and have to make split second decisions, there will always be the occasional misjudgement, and that while dangerous driving is unacceptable, a modest amount of controversial collisions helps to increase interest in the sport by generating talking points. There is also a lot of "penalising by result" going on, i.e. if you try a risky pass that might cause an accident if the other driver doesn't get out of the way, you get a drive-through if the driver refuses to give way, but nothing if he does.

    The latest Hamilton-Massa incident, where Massa got a drive-through because "he could have avoided the collision by giving way", used to be known as a classic example of a "racing incident", even though Massa was primarily responsible for the collision, because traditionally if the other driver isn't fully alongside you, you aren't obliged to give way. The current drive-through regime appears to have led to a subtle change in that code of racing ethics. I wouldn't mind so much if it was just a one-off change, but in reality we are seeing a slow incremental tightening of the rules regarding what racing ethics are and aren't acceptable.

    Thus, my proposals are as follows:

    1. Dangerous and/or deliberate causing of collisions- grid drop for the next race, ranging from 5 place drop to starting from last place, open to stewards' discretion depending on the extent to which the incident was dangerous and/or deliberate.

    2. Inadvertantly causing a collision without mitigating circumstances (e.g. not trying a pass and not slippery conditions)- drive through, plus one "penalty point" against driver's name.

    3. Contributing to collision or inadvertantly causing one while trying a bold pass or during slippery conditions- stewards to take no action, but give one "penalty point" against driver's name.

    4. If accident was not easily avoidable, no action and no penalty points.

    5. More than a certain number of "penalty points" within a season- 5 place grid drop for the next race. I would suggest a total of 3 or 4. After a grid drop the counter is then reset to 0 and the process rinses and repeats to the end of the season.

    The idea of this is to allow "racing incidents" to happen without resulting in a long series of drive-throughs, but to also ensure that drivers who get involved in a disproportionate number of them, in which they are at least partly to blame, face punishment after an accumulation of them. For instance, under my proposals, Lewis Hamilton might well have seen out the 2011 season with just one or two drive-throughs, but he would have amassed enough penalty points for two, maybe even three, 5 place grid drops. Michael Schumacher would probably only have seen one 5 place grid drop while the likes of Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button would probably have seen out the season without any penalties at all.

    I have no objections with the penalties for things like speeding in the pitlane and ignoring flags though.
  22. Thundery wintry showers
    In some discussions on this forum I've often displayed a questioning attitude towards rules and laws, and refused to accept without question that "rules are rules". I think I know where this attitude comes from.
    It's by analogy with being picked on for being "different" (years of experience of it at school, and also at Lancaster University to some extent). If you complain about being picked on for being different, you often end up with a discussion like this:
    I: I'm being bullied.
    A: Well, just fit in then. The peer group make it clear where they draw the line; everyone knows what the rules of the peer group are: you fit in and get accepted, you don't fit in, you are bullied. It's your problem not theirs; fit in, and the problem is solved.
    I: No, the problem is the suppression of my ability to be who I am.
    A: That's life. You've got to fit in to help give a sense of community, and you've got to abide by what is considered socially acceptable; if everyone chose to abide by what was socially acceptable just when they felt it was right, you'd have the equivalent of anarchy. For example, you could say "it's socially unacceptable to beat people up, but I think that's suppression of individuality, so I think I'm entitled to beat people up".
    I: But there's a difference between deviating from social norms in a way that is harmful (e.g. beating people up) and doing things where the only thing "wrong" is its difference (e.g. having unusual interests, such as the weather)
    A: Doesn't matter. The peer group have their rules. Rules are rules- if you don't fit in, you get bullied. That's life. There isn't a problem with the rules of the peer group; we know this because if everyone abided by them there wouldn't be a problem.
    I: But there is a problem- you can't be who you are, you get ostracised for doing harmless things and treated as you would if you'd beaten someone up!
    A: That's life. It is necessary to penalise responsible people because of the actions of irresponsible people, because the minority spoil it for everyone else and that's life.
    I: It doesn't have to be that way- you can differentiate harmful different activities from harmless ones.
    A: (defensively) HOW do you? You can't, because the minority spoiling it is unavoidable; if it wasn't, it wouldn't be a fact of life.
    I think that's the kind of analogy that makes me a bit more questioning of rules and laws than most.
  23. Thundery wintry showers
    In Cleadon, Tyne & Wear, the stats were:
    Mean Max 9.6C
    Mean Min 3.2C
    Warmest: 14.6C (3rd)
    Coldest: -3.7C (19th)
    Lowest max: 2.6C (28th)
    Precipitation: 49mm (62)
    Air frosts: 10
    Days of snow lying: 0 (smattering on 28th)
    Sleet/snow: 3
    Hail: 3
    It was the coldest November since 1998, and the sunniest since at least 1947 (probably for much longer). The first half averaged 10.2C and the second half averaged just 2.5C making it the warmest first half of November since 1994, while the mean minumum of -0.6 in the second half was the lowest since 1993. The month was a few tenths of a degree below the average for 1971-2000.
    Illustrating my approval of the month's weather, in Leeds (where the month was very similar) I awarded the month an average of 65%, which is the highest rating for a November since 1996, and the highest of any month since May 2004.
  24. Thundery wintry showers
    The forecast ran as follows:
    [quote]Changeable, near-average temperatures


    November 2012 will be a changeable month with low pressure set to control the weather for most of the time. The long-range signals point to near-average temperatures and no significant cold spells during the first two-thirds of the month at least.

    Low pressure centred over northern Scotland will bring a rather cool and showery theme during the first five days of the month, with the majority of the showers in western areas, but some will penetrate into eastern areas too, particularly over north-east England. On the 4th and 5th a secondary low will track over southern England and will give a spell of cloudy weather and prolonged rain from the Midlands southwards with snow on high ground. Further north, a mix of sun and showers will continue but as the wind switches around to a northerly or north-easterly direction, showers on the 5th will mostly be concentrated in eastern areas bordering the North Sea.

    Between the 6th and 8th the weather is expected to turn milder and cloudier with a moist west to north-westerly airflow in occupation, and there will be some persistent rain over Scotland, Ireland, Wales and northern and western England on the 6th and 7th although south-eastern England will probably stay dry. Temperatures will generally reach highs of 10 to 13C. The 8th/9th will see low pressure become established again to the north and north-west of the country, so a band of rain will sweep south-eastwards across the country, followed by brighter, showery weather.

    Towards mid-November we can expect a generally showery regime with low pressure sat to the north and north-west of the British Isles. Most of the showers will be concentrated in western areas, while there is also the possibility of some more organised belts of rain at times, particularly over southern and central parts of England. Temperatures will mostly be close to the seasonal average. After midmonth a milder, unsettled regime will take over with more frequent frontal systems and some inputs of warm tropical air, and it will become generally cloudy and wet, particularly in north-western Britain.

    The last third of November is likely to feature a colder, quieter interlude, most likely during the last week of the month, which may feature some snow showers for northern and eastern counties for a time although confidence on this is low. Broadly speaking mild and unsettled weather around the 20th will give way to high pressure heading in from the west. I am not expecting any exceptional cold snowy weather like most of us saw at the end of November 2010- just an ordinary late-November cold snap.

    Overview
    Temperatures during November 2012 will generally be within a degree of the 1981-2010 average, with southern England up to a degree warmer than average and northern Scotland up to a degree colder. A Central England Temperature of around 7.1C is expected.

    Due to the changeable nature of the weather it will generally be another wet month with rainfall excesses of 30-70% in most regions, and western and southern England plus much of Wales will generally be wettest relative to normal. Eastern Scotland will be the main exception, where rainfall will be near or slightly below average.

    Sunshine totals will be well above average over much of eastern Scotland and north-east England with excesses of 20-50%, but sunshine will be near or below average elsewhere, with south Wales and south-west England probably dullest relative to the long-term average (shortages of 20-30% are possible).

    [/quote]

    After a couple of forecasts which were rather wide of the mark, I thought this one went quite well, particularly during the first and last weeks of the month. The showery north-westerly regime that I had predicted leading up to midmonth lasted just a couple of days though, and instead high pressure was the dominant theme around midmonth, though a rather cloudy high for most of us. I managed to pick out the colder interlude towards the end of the month with high pressure advancing from the west, though not the exceptional rainfall events which led to widespread flooding.

    Statistically sunshine, temperature and rainfall anomalies were generally similar to what I predicted, although I won't lie- I got a bit lucky with the rainfall stats as the unsettled periods of the 1st-20th were generally less wet than I had envisaged, while the last third of the month was wetter, and the two cancelled each other out resulting in my monthly rainfall projections being near the mark.
  25. Thundery wintry showers
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1219753/GRAHAM-POLL-Sorry-Fabio-referee-spot-Robert-Greens-red-card-Ukraine.html

    Some comments here highlight a key problem:
    [quote name='Graham Poll']...stated at half-time that he felt that both a dismissal and penalty are too harsh in such instances.
    But given that only 75 per cent of penalties are converted in the Barclays Premier League, you can see that if the penalty was the only sanction then more players would be tempted to bring down opponents as they were about to score.
    It is vital that referees correctly differentiate between a goalkeeper bringing an opponent down with a mistimed tackle and an attacker forcing contact with a prone goalkeeper.
    [/quote]

    [quote]The idea of a penalty being enough punishment always annoys me. It isn't punishment. The attacking player is in a position where he can score. That get's stolen from him by a player breaking the law. The penalty gives it back, but it doesn't mean the other player has been punished for breaking the law.
    If someone steals your car, the police give it back, how is that punishment for the thief?
    Cards and sendings off have to be used to punish the player for cheating. The penalty has to be given to give back to the attacking team what the other side tried to cheat them out of.
    [/quote]

    The main defence of this rule appears to be the automatic assumption that if a defender or keeper commits a foul on someone who is through on goal, it must be a deliberate attempt to cheat by stopping the other person from scoring.
    In reality there's such a thing as a mistimed effort to get the ball, or an accidental collision with a player, and I can't see how this can suddenly cease to be the case just because the person who commits the foul happens to be the last defender.

    The mind boggles at how effective the "the rules are right because the rules say so" approach can be at removing logical thinking from the equation.

    I actually think the idea of making professional fouls a sending off offence is sound, but the implementation of this rule has resulted in the term "professional foul" being defined far too libertally. Imagine if, in Formula One, they brought in a rule to stop moves like Schumacher on Villeneuve in Jerez 1997, where if A tries to overtake B and gets the line into the corner but B doesn't allow enough room and they collide, B must be disqualified for three races for denying an Obvious Overtaking Opportunity... Even the FIA wouldn't be so stupid as to pass a rule like that, but that's what the Obvious Goalscoring Opportunity is like.
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