damianslaw

Mike Poole Yes ECM aligning strongly with GFS, indeed there is strong correlation between both models right out to 10 days, rare we've been able to say that most of the winter so far.

MP-R The way cold prospects have been snatched away this winter wouldn't be surprised. You can make out two eyes and a scary mouth over Iberia. ECM is pulling in a strong westerly 7 days time kicking the high to the SW into touch. Perhaps this is as far as we should go now.. i.e. the very mild south westerly becoming a less mild but still mild westerly.

feb1991blizzard GFS maintains the theme of recent runs as mentioned in previous post i.e. trough heading east, cold polar maritime flow thereafter with temps closer to average as we enter latter end to the month. Such changes still out of the reliable, will wait to see if ECM follows suit. Immediate outlook very mild but rather grey and dull and not very inspiring.

Met4Cast A very good post, any further surmisings on the reason for last week's low pressure to behave why it did after many models were expecting it to go east not north west!

Reading today's updates, feels that its been written by two different organisations, the two don't flow. Also reference to 'warm' in February.. really!, since when can the Feb sunshine be called warm. Such phrases need to be substantiated. The recent updates have been all over the place.

Interesting to note GFS holding firm with pushing the trough east through next week and mid atlantic heights building to the west. A deep trough is shown with a NW- SE aligned jet, certainly a plausible evolution. Thereafter low pressure from the NW phases into the scandi trough. A cold unsettled end to winter would be the end product with snow likely to modest low levels in the north. Remember northerlies and easterlies become statistically more likely as we enter Spring, peaking in April and May..

A similiar day to yesterday so far, benign and cloudy, not much happening so far. Yesterday livened up markedly as the day wore on with heavy squally showers. However, today is set to just bring rain later.

Penrith Snow Not wishing to derail the thread by comparing how synoptics have played out this winter so far against 1997-98 and there are uncanny similiarities, more so both strong El Nino years, albeit 97-98 was super el nino, a very mild December in the main which produced a chilly spell - ditto Dec 23 albeit different timescales, a rather average Jan with a mini cold spell mid month and some dry frosty weather, and now a balmy Feb as was 1998... mmm makes you wonder.

A few showers of hail late this afternoon and the evening so far with the wind picking up has changed the benign feel of earlier half of the day. There was a dusting of snow above about 600m first thing, reminding me it is still only 12 Feb, despite daffodils about to burst open. A rather drab grey wet outlook, not inspiring in the slighest. February can sap all energy after 3 long dark months..

Mmm lots of change in some model output today i.e. ECM, gone are the heights lifting through the UK and instead the strength of the PV to the NW exerts control with a renewed unsettled push from the atlantic. GFS holds steadfast with the very mild south west flow becoming westerly and in time amplified. Just musing but doesn't a SSW result in a flushing out of the westerlies so to speak before its affects imprint fully. Many longer range modelling went for a ridge to the NW and trough to the SE, the recent suggestion of heights building through the UK didn't align with such scenario, whereas an increasingly amplified flow and eventual ridge to the west building north does.. just a few weeks later perhaps! In the meantime the long very mild period in the reliable remains and perhaps not as settled as first thought.

Updates on expected SSW would be greatly received.. conflicting messages at present.

Perhaps this winter will do a summer 2023 on us, bookended by cold instead of warmth i.e. the core summer period late June to late Aug was predominantly cool and unsettled and un summer like though temps were average following the heat at the start of June and back with vengence by September. Can't really compare the cold in late Nov/ very start Dec on same degree of divergence from norm compared to heat of June 2023.. but some synergies but only if first half of March is cold.

danm Yes I would agree for majority of population south of a line Preston to the Humber, but in the north unless the sun is abundant and only a few cms, then a good cover can stick easily for a couple of days.. indeed late March 13 proved this. Its important to draw the difference between north and south half of UK especially in March when there are often marked temp differentials. My location I do have a north half UK perspective in the minority I guess..

danm I guess it depends on what people's expectations are when it comes to cold wintry weather. I agree if after ice days and days of snow cover with mean temps 0 degrees or below, by March such weather is certainly statistically not likely more so further south, unless an exceptional synoptic i.e. 2018. However a few days of maxima in the 0-5 degree mark, run of sub freezing nights and a sprinkle or two of snow is certainly possible first half of March granted more so further north you go. Yes a low bar in context of what many may class as cold and wintry, but many would take it after a snowless winter further south. Last March gave us our most snow of the season, yes the sun went to work on it by lunchtime but we had a few very snowy days.

Sneaky feeling we may be premature with this thread. and winter could bite back hard by months end and into March, certainly not late enough to pack a punch. I sense much dispondency how it has panned put by and large, largely due to promising signals of colder weather perhaps beating off the atlantic more so second half of winter which since 20 Jan has not been the case. We have had many instances of cold wintry very tail ends to winter and starts to spring. Why am I saying all this, namely due to expected SSW affects, and given northerlies and easterlies tend to show there face come late Feb. This is not a forecast for wintry nirvana by months end, just that I feel we shouldn't close the book on winter weather until 2 weeks time if none is on the horizon.

A so-so sort of day so far. Its been dry, but the clouds look like they could threat rain any time. A chilly start and it feels quite cold despite a current temp 7.2 degrees. Its all quite benign stuff for mid Feb.

Penrith Snow Its an observation others have made this winter, the extent of heights to our south positioned at more northerly lattitudes than usual it seems.. the 'iberian high'... the extensive warmth from last summer/autumn a possible reason, but it has thwarted the colder air advecting south. Looking at the week ahead the models yet again show heights to our south being the key force. We may see a change post any SSW should that verify..

Met office still sticking with their prognosis that northerlies and easterlies are possible.. and indeed the longer range outlook feels a revert back to something more likely colder. As we enter spring statistically northerlies and easterlies are more likely than in June to Feb.

cheese Trouble with February is the still short daylight hours and cool sun, the latter does tend to have a tinge of warmth to it in the last week, but it never properly feels like Spring. Its different to the last month of the next season i.e. May which by mid month can feel every bit like the next season i.e. summer, with sunshine levels nearing yearly peak and the long days. August though like February never feels like Autumn.. but November by mid month can often feel like winter, short daylight, weak sun..

North-Easterly Blast There are similiarities to last winter, albeit the early cold not as intense as Dec 22 or long lasting, the Jan cold was a bit colder than last Jan cold.. very mild latter Dec into Jan both years and now what appears to be a very mild latter third Jan through Feb as last year..Last March delivered a cold shot first part of month....

Don Big difference to winter 19-20 and this winter, the PV was much stronger then and sent storm after storm our way. This winter has seen shortlived episodic stormy spells thankfully and at least a couple of shots of cold, unlike 19-20 which was relentlessly mild. I've just re-read and you are comparing to possible expectations for mext winter. No doubt we'll see a brutal cold winter against expected signals! Wouldn't be surprised given how chaotic things feel..

Northern Sky Ive mentioned many a time how quite often reliable timeframe periods can be very short sometimes 72 hrs tops, sometimes 24 hrs, sometimes look outside the window. This winter and indeed last summer has proven the case to expect sudden short term developments scuppering medium range expectations. Always best to be open minded when it comes to the British weather and for sudden changes. The behaviour of the low pressure on Thursday gone and still influencing us now has to be one of the least expected synoptical evolutions I've seen.

Decent light levels until near 5.30pm, definately feeling the change now. On clear afternoons, it will soon be 6pm before we see notable light dimming. I feel a corner has been turned, the move out of mid winter and into late winter and with it the early spring stirrings, despite the weather having a habit of bringing every bit our wintriest weather of the year.

Dark I think the SSW came on the 12th.. hence why the models latched on to high latt blocking from then on. This year the SSW is expected a week late if it happens and therefore will not be until 19 Feb see how it may affect us. and we won't know when.. a quick impact might just about deliver a severe cold spell in early March if synoptics align.. it gived us something interesting to focus on in the week ahead.

Joe Snow Feb 18 was a very good month for sunshine here. The very cold spell came 25th onwards.. the period leading in was cold dry and frosty. The snowiest day was the 28th, we had about 4 inches and drifting. The coldest day was 1 March, a max of -2 degrees and a severe wind chill it was brutal. I went for a walk on the 2nd or 3rd not sure and there was major drifts on local lanes.