damianslaw

Summer Sun These are max temps remember, might only achieve them for an hour or two tops, in polar maritime flows at this time of year temps in showers often drop like a stone. A typical day here might dawn at 2-3 degrees, taking until after noon to break 7 degrees, couple of hours at 8 degrees between 1 and 3, then back to 6 degrees by dusk.. in any showers temps drop to 5-6 degrees especially if heavy.

Shillitocettwo No thanks to that!

trickydicky Ah may well be the case, but climate is a complex phenenemon and I'm a believer just when it sets into a groove it throws out wild surprises.. the events of late Feb 18, whilst SSW induced, was very extreme and against the grain. I remember thinking after winter 07-08 we were destined for no overall cold winters, the last notable cold one being some 11 years ago.. alas things changed. We are 11 years on from 12-13, who knows next year might be the surprise one.. always expect the unexpected.

Not that I understand fully the effects of volcanic eruptions other than large events tend to lead to global cooling thanks ti aerosols emitted into stratosphere, however the last big one in 2022 hunga tonga emitted water vapor instead which results in warming instead .. perhaps this has been a key factor. Typical the largest event since Krakatoa over 100 years ago results in warming.. seems everything destined to lead to warmth these days.. probably not as simple as one factor but notable how its affects has correlated with warming.. the lack of volcanic activity in medieval period also cited as a key factor for why it was much milder than rest of period since until recently... and without the greenhouse gas..

Day 10 The third winter in a row when our snowiest spell came very early... in 2021-22 in late Nov courtesy of Storm Arwen, in 2022-23 mid Dec, and this year on 2 Dec. Hoping for a wet mild start to winter 24-25 as early cold has been a bad omen for winter cold in core of season i.e. mid Jan- mid Feb. Its been another trying one for cold snow lovers, more so than most seasons given all the speculation it could deliver notable cold and snow, at least last year the signal was for early cold, and 21-22 signal for cold as a whole very poor.

Metwatch Pleasant to see if you want early spring sun and warmth. Early March I feel may deliver something either cold and settled, mild and settled, cold and wet or mild and wet, frankly it could do anything..

It feels most have left this thread in there droves over past week or so.. perhaps unsurprising given how static the outlook has been.. but we are seeing changes ahead firmly in the reliable.. with the azores/iberian high kicked into touch by the deep atlantic trough set to make a landing over the UK through second half of the week. Very unsettled in a word and feeling alot colder than of late by Thursday thanks to chilly NW winds and rain, on northern high ground perhaps a lot of snow before the week is out. UKMO shows the trough dropping SE with a cold ridge following in behind by this time next week, GFS maintains the unsettled chilly theme with further low pressure systems tracking in from the NW. Those who like calm quiet weather won't be enthralled by the outlook rest of the week, those who want lively bouts of wind/rain and sharp temp drops in showers will be happy as polar maritime air takes over, notable by its absence much of the winter.

The first half of Feb 2012 was very cold, on a par or possibly colder than 1991, and colder than 2009. The second half as the case with 1991 and 2009 was mild, indeed very mild cancelling out the cold first half. Interesting to note cold first halves to Feb followed by mild second halves occured in 91, 09, 12 and 21. Conversely 1994, 2005, 2018 reserved cold for second half, 2013 and 2006 also to an extent. Continuously cold Febs have been scarce, 1986 most famous case, 96 was episodic, 01 also, 2010 closest to a consistently cold Feb since 86 without ever being very cold, I guess 2013 and 2018 were quite cold throughout but as said coldest weather occured late on.

kold weather Spring tends to be the driest season of the year, especially in the west, a wet one doesn't bode well at all. We do appear to be in a wetter phase, after a period since March 2020 we have seen alternating dry and wet spells cancelling each other out, but since July it has been predominantly wet bar the odd brief dry period.

A changing outlook shown by ECM, UKMO, and GFS from Thursday onwards, as we lose the very mild tropical maritime airstream for a polar maritime one. A classic cold front being the trigger with the azores high kicked to the west. A week of two halves ahead, more of the recent same Mon- Wed, Thursday the transitional day, Fri- Sun, feeling much colder thanks to a cold NW wind. Interest lies in how the trough behaves, we may see a secondary low develop on the southern base.. certainly snow looks probable to relative modest levels in the north in the form of showers by the end of the week..The high tops could see a fair amount.

A very pleasant day, making up somewhat for a quite dismal week. Bright, dry and very mild, 12 degrees..A useable day, indeed a few people sitting out. A very unsettled week ahead, very mild to start, temps Thursday and thereafter nearer average as we lose the tropical maritime air for polar maritime air..We might scrape a frost in any clear skies by end of the week.

North-Easterly Blast This factor emphasises the lack of cold Februaries since 1991. 1994 is probably not remembered because there was no severe cold and snowfalls amounts for many were quite small. The period 13th to 25th was preety cold with easterly/south easterlies and probably could have been colder had the continent been colder. Here as I mention we received about a foot of snow on the 23rd, one of those surprise snowfalls, as it was expected the front would clear more quick, alas it stalled over us. A very similiar event to 2 Dec last year, on both occasions north half of Cumbria had nothing.

Moaning about this long fetch murk infested south west airstream.. can it go away now please.

Frigid Last July nearly came in below 61-90 mean and was comfortably below 81-10 mean. I'd rather see the next below 61-90 month occur either March or an Autumn month than Apr- Aug.. we shall see. Back to thoughts on spring, always the most unpredictable season and by far most interesting one on a synoptic level, as the atlantic tends to be less dominant and unusual set ups occur. I suspect it could be a volatile spring with quite sudden changes from cold to mild and back again, more so late March onwards.

Just reflecting on the exceptional warmth brought by current synoptics and what kind of means would they bring in July and August I wonder? Hardly any diurnal difference max and min here, currently 10.4 after a high of 11.1 degrees, what a benign and oh so temperate mild mannered climate we have. This first half of Feb is reminding me of the exceptional warmth of Dec 15. Its caught many out, don't think anyone was expecting it. We seem to be experiencing some notably very mild 2 week spells or so last 12 months.. last Feb, first half June, first 10 days Sept, last half Dec, last 10 days Jan, and now what looks like first 21 days Feb.

Blessed Weather Noting winters 98-99 and 87-88 both mentioned as double SSW years, don't know the timings but neither was conducive to winter cold admittedly the following springs brought some cold in April. The SSW factor is always an unknown, sometimes it brings the wintry good i.e. Feb 09, winter 09-10 and 12-13 and Feb 18, sometimes not so i.e. 18-19 and this year. One factor not in favour this year has been the very warm El Nino perhaps underestimated.

Just a word on snow sticking prospects in March, certainly for north half of UK it can stick easily any point of the day and doesn't require very cold uppers, last year a case in point. We had a few inches on the 9th.. heavy snow fell on the 14th middle of day and stuck. There are lots of other parameters when it comes to snow sticking. Admittedly by March chances of snow sticking reduces in showery set ups especially when the sun comes out. Back to the models. a case of south westerlies becoming alternating westerlies and north westerlies, the latter with some bite....

Thinking of cold Marches, 2006 was on course to be one of the coldest of 20th century, but it turned exceptionally mild in the last week. It featured alot of cold anticyclonic weather, cold northerlies and easterlies with one of our biggest snowfalls last 30 years on the 12th. It was very similiar to 1996 and more so 2001 in many ways. Interesting to note the 3-5 year cold March timescales...96, 01, 06, 10 (not especially so), 13 and 18.. but we skipped in 2023.. perhaps 2024?

Weather-history Summer 94 and 96 were decent but wet at times, notably 1994 with a lot of thunder. We were on the brink of a very hot summer in 1994, Europe experienced one of its hottest. 1996 featured alot of warm dry and sunny weather but coming on the back of 1995 felt underwhelming. To an extent 1990 was overshadowed by 1989 but it contained record heat, without it, it would probably not be rated that high as with 1996.

Not much to add to yesterday's musings. The models firm on a change to a more westerly/north westerly airflow as we move into the latter stages of the month. Heights to our south west will be pulled west thanks to a deepening of the long wave atlantic trough and a switch in the position of the jet gradually becoming more NW-SE aligned. What this means, is a very unsettled outlook in the main, and preety wet for most, becoming windy as well. Temperatures trending down to near normal levels by the 22nd.. risk of wintry precipitation northern high ground, very limited frost though thanks to few clear spells, sadly also a lot of cloud, but probably sunnier once polar air is injected in the mix. As we enter Spring, the chances of 'cold synoptics' increase markedly traditionally, northerly arctic shots often occur and easterly outbreaks and cold cyclonic spells, not saying we are on course for such conditions this spring, but typically the atlantic and the azores high often finds it more of a battle to dominate than in any other season.

As expected a thoroughly dull miserable day weatherwise here. Low cloud down to valley level, persistant dank mizzle (misty rain), everything soaking damp. Looking at the radar a heavy pulse of rain knocking on our door right now. A quick descent into dusk anticipated. Its mild at 11 degrees and no wind, but for a half term Saturday its very poor for anyone planning outdoor activities. A very drab far too non wintry core winter period mid Jan - mid Feb has passed again.. im ready for spring now and no doubt a white easter!

I'm not clued up on this reflection event referenced, but seems sod's law it happened to prevent cold second half of winter. I'm.not sure its as simple as this, but it all shows just how unpredictable our weather is and the reason we keep speculating about what may happen, if it was all clear, this forum wouldn't be the place it is. Last summer caught many out, and this winter has as well it seems. Last summer pleased the chill rain summer lovers, but the heat rain seekers had there pay back this winter instead.

SunSean Paltry amounts of sun for Shap so far, 12 hours. This February fast going in the box 'not to be opened' again. Roll on March.

Seems Cumbria the bright spot in the region today. A very benign day for mid Feb. Tomorrow set to be a wet affair unfortunately for a Saturday.

Where are we heading as we enter latter stage to February.. GFS, ECM and UKMO all in strong agreement of a generally very unsettled outlook, but we lose the very mild south westerly flow in exchange for a westerly becoming north westerly flow. Tropical maritime air then returning polar maritime, and eventually polar maritime air. Alot of dull wet weather ahead. Northern high ground likely to see some snow, temps trending back to near average.