damianslaw

A feature of the winter has been long drawn NE arctic winds into the north atlantic through Iceland, but they seem to only have generated low pressure to our west/sw held in situ by heights to our NE. Quite an unusual anomaly. how the cold was locked to our north but not over the arctic.

Dull, dull, dull..... uninspiring.

SqueakheartLW We experienced something similiar post Jan 97 until winter of 08-09, a long run of winters with episodic brief cold spells and the odd longer spell such as happened in 17-18 and 20-21, but the extent of warmth since winter 13-14 which seems a more obvious turning point than winter 15-16 has been more extreme. Conversely whilst we've had record breaking summer warmth and long dry hot spells in summer 18 and 22, our summers seem to be far more variable with as much in the way of very lengthy wet spells as well.

The PIT Becoming the norm? Question is when will our next below 61-90 month arrive? Sods law a summer month. We came very close last July.. this month will be the 15th above average month in a row, unprecedented I think? We had long runs in 2014-15 06-07 and 16-17.

The odd dandelion is out, by the end of the month they will be much more abundant, and I'm expecting an early season for tree leaf appearance.

Had enough now of nearly 4 and half months of little sun, lots of low cloud and rain. Sunshine and warmth can't come soon enough. This week is reaching a new low in this respect, but as the saying goes 'the darkest hour is just before dawn', 'dawn' being when the clocks go forward.

tricol The bbc forecasts and met office forecasts for here rest of the week show a few hours of sunny spells Saturday only, meaning we might only receive 3 hours or so total sun all week, abysmal and why I detest SW airstreams, even in summer here they just bring cloud or drizzle/rain.

Another drab day's weather, when will the next ray of sun burst through..

A significant rise in the days ahead, likely to be in the 7s going into the last third, but lots of uncertainty how the last third will pan out. Chances of a below average month looking very slim, but something closer to average still not out of the question.

Weather-history Complete reversal to what many long range forecasts suggested. A shocker of a month for cold.

After yesterday's non descriptness, today has produced persistant light drizzle, epitome of tedium. The week as a whole set poor for sunshine, no springlike feeling. Its all very uninspiring.

Frigid Still a long way to go, whilst may not bring notable cold, there are still signals for height rises to the NW and a colder end to the month, just in time for Easter!

Indeed it was a very topsy turvy season. March excellent. April abysmal..May abysmal until the last third which was excellent, bringing the best spell of weather for warmth, sun and dryness all year, June nosedived.. It was an odd year with quite a few marked switcharounds, first half of Feb and second half completely different, likewise December. Late October brought very cold conditions. Quite an interesting year.

In the winter months Nov - March SW airstreams always bring means easily a couple of degrees above norm, quite often 3-5 degrees thanks to very mild minima namely. What has been a theme of last 20 years has been less of the classic Ridge-trough, warm/cold sector with south westerlies then west/ nw airstreams, instead the azores high appears further north and the jet also locking SW flows in place for 1, 2 sometimes 3-4 weeks non stop hence all these super high CET values. Seems some truth in the azores high being displaced further north, can only think its due to warmer SSTs over tropics and warmer arctic ocean meaning less marked deep temp gradients which allows the polar air to kick the tropical air quickly aside. Polar maritime airstreams are much more fleeting features nowadays.

Very quiet in this thread generally recently, but not surprising I guess given how benign the synoptics have been and continue to be forecasted. This week sees heights to the south holding influence meaning very mild but also quite dull and wet for some. ECM keeps heights strong to the south into next week, preventing the trough cleanly moving east, GFS does move it east eventually but its all rather messy, with low pressure and fronts turning in on themselves as heights build strong to the NW a theme it has been playing with for some time now, possibly MJO and SSW induced. Its all just a bit uninteresting.

Derecho That would be a very high rise indeed if it verified, whilst a predominantly mild/ very mild week ahead looks on the cards, I'm not sure the extent of mild will prevail through the last 2 weeks, could be a big switcharound on the cards. Incidentally there has been a 1 degree rise in CET value 61-90 mean and 91-20 mean, depending on which value you measure against, a 8 finish would be 1.3 degrees above 91-20, appreciably above, but I wouldn't class it as exceptionally high, somewhere in the high 8s, yes agree. Long way to go still..

If ever a day be defined as non-descript weatherwise, today is that day. Nothing to comment on, bland and more so...

Metwatch Its a see saw period until the clocks go forward, on days like today, still a late winter feel, on clear days, no winter feel.

Last March was preety un springlike, wintry early on, and very wet. Spring tends to take until the end of the month to bed in, by then the sun has the same strength as it has in early-mid September. Easter and the clocks going forward will mark a significant change in feel..

Ah well my post from earlier in the day was a bust, expecting just dribs and drabs of rain, the afternoon deteriorated quick with a moderate spell of rain, and cold to boot, with temps down to 5-6 degrees and a quick descent into dusk, felt quite wintry and miserable.

In an average year, mid May cut off for frost, but some years May brings little, others early June.

Joe Snow Yes we were in the midst of a cold wintry spell that had set in on the 8th, and lasted through to the 15th. The 9th brought a few inches late on, which thawed quick on the 10th. The weekend 11-12th was chilly. The 13th milder and very wet, further snow on the 14th.

The models are moving away from any scandi height rise having an influence - a theme of the season as a whole. Instead there continues to be a signal for height rises albeit weak to our NW. This has the affect of sharpening the atlantic trough in combination with heights to our SW, again the theme of the season. End result, a return to a milder but wetter flow from between south and west, but no long draw warmer feed as yet. Longer term we may well see the atlantic trough anchor east and with a lot of cold polar air on its flank, we may see some of this spill down into the UK, indeed ECM output very plausible in this respect. GFS as well is playing around with a switch to locking the UK on the colder side of the jet as we move into latter third of March, but all too far away to call at this stage. For the foreseeable its all quite dull model viewing for weather enthuiasts who like something interesting, but March can entrench itself in quite uninteresting terrain for lengthy spells, same as the other shoulder month, September. April is the month for more sudden marked changes and interesting synoptics with the still cold arctic polar air doing battle with the ever increasingly warm tropical/continental air.

Wet damp ground, but not sure how much rain fell earlier in the morning. Its been dry last couple of hours at least. Rain radar shows rain to our east, but expecting only dribs and drabs here. Cloudy and quite cool, current temp 7.7 degrees. Indeed least inspiring day of the week weatherwise, typically coinciding with Mother's Day. Looking back at previous Mother Day's its often a very hit and miss affair, sometimes cold and wintry, sometimes very springlike and pleasant, this one sitting firmly in the average category.

It indeed began very poor, June 2012 one of worse summer months I can recall, relentlessly wet, dull and very cool..July was also quite poor, but warmer at times, lots of thunder. August 2012 was half decent. Summer 07 overall though was consistently very poor, and for this reason rank it lower than 2012, came as a shock on the back of 4 summers that featured appreciable long lasting heat at times, notably in 2003 and 2006. Summer 08 was a slightly better version of 2007. We were dealt a poor run of summers between 2007-12 but also good winters for cold and snow, I do wonder if the weak solar cycle had a role to play.... Since summer 2013 by and large we've been locked in a run of average to very good summers for heat and dryness, with odd exceptions, and poor to very poor winters for cold and snow again with odd brief exceptions. I remember being at this same juncture just before summer 2007..there was a marked shift in the jet south that summer..