damianslaw

In these set ups the rain radar is an excellent lesson in understanding the altitude of the UK, the colours act as a relief contour map. Greens and pinks denote the high ground. Currently green line 200m, pink line 300m.

There is a light snow cover on the fells, roughly 500m plus. Current temp 3.1 degrees. Expecting sleety rain here, if there was a more larger pulse of precipitation perhaps evaporative cooling would have kicked in, but alas a narrow band won't do the trick. Overnight and into tomorrow might bring a few sleety snow showers.

Mark_p Should be a good cover tomorrow which will hold to Monday, same as last weekend, though the cover was thin and at 600m plus mainly.

Its been similiar to 97-98 as well.. the super el nino year. A winter to forget if you are a cold snow lover. Very disappointing, Feb exceptionally so.

Methuselah Depends if the draw is long fetch from Russia, then cold and wintry, but may just be a raw chill cloudy SE flow with near average temps.

Expecting a rather non-descript month overall, quite near average sunshine, rainfall wise. Some lengthy chilly conditions at times, outside chance of more substantive cold should we pull in a cold easterly by mid month. Good chance it will be colder than Feb but not by much, 7.5 degrees my guess. Slow moving trough features at times.

ECM going for a cold easterly, backing the trough far west. UKMO heading in the same direction. GFS going with a similiar evolution but doesn't quite pull in the cold easterly instead heights sink through the UK. A change to something very different on the way, heights building strong to our east. Question is whether low heights disrupt and undercut cleanly to allow a long fetch easterly draw, or hold in situ to our west, enabling a milder SE draw. First half of March with a long draw easterly certainly not late in the season to deliver wintry goods.

Take out the 1-7 Dec and 6-19 Jan, this winter has been a shocker for cold and wintry weather. The heavy snow on 2 Dec was a major event and has helped keep it out of the very poorest ranking winters for snow at least, and the 15-19 Jan was a decent cold spell, tarnished by the snow on the 16th turning to rain. However the rest of the winter consign to the bin really. February a complete write off the sleet on 8 Feb a kick in the teeth, hardly any frost. Also a wet dull winter but thankfully no major flooding events. 3 wintry weeks, cancelled out by 10 very non wintry ones. Winter 24-25 must do better overall.

Odd warning for SW mention of snow.. but nothing for NW where risk of snow is higher, indeed met office states sleet tomorrow afternoon.. Possibly may be a warning in next hour or so.. certainly chance of significant snow modest heights.

A Winter's Tale Winter 03-04 produced a few short sharp northerly snaps, notably around New Year, late Jan, and notably late Feb into March. Admittedly I was in NE England at the time, more exposed to snow showers, further west will have seen less. I would rank it higher than the likes of 19/20, 15/16 - certainly so, 18/19 and 21/22 - they were all shockers for cold and snow.

I'll be looking for a very mild end to Nov, start to Dec with rampant zonal winds and PV, for promise of cold next season. Early cold before christmas since 2019 with exception of 2020 has been a bad omen for cold thereafter. I always feel the synoptics and state of play around christmas gives clues how rest of winter may pan out, cold outbreaks a good omen, locked in mild not so.. case in point late Dec 14, 17 and 20 brought a degree of cold and snow, followed by average or cold rest of winter. All others since 2013, not so..

On clear days, light levels linger after 6pm, whereas days such as today with rain and low cloud mean light levels diminish rapidly by half 5. We are in that transition period, but until the clocks go forward it remains the 'dark' part of the year. I find March very frustrating as someone who tends to finish work by 6pm, there is just not enough light to make use of the early evenings.

Had Worse May be similiar to the event back on a Thursday 8th Feb I think which was a 200m plus affair.. Back to today, a deteriorating day, rain set in at lunchtime becoming heavy late afternoon with an early dark descent into dusk. Also not at all feeling mild, my max was less than 8 degrees, below the 10 forecast.

No met office warnings, high bet it will snow then.. I'm surprised no warning for high ground at least, given we had warnings in more marginal set ups. I wonder if the lack of warning is because they've been burned too many times this season. May still be a warning tomorrow. The Sat 2 Dec event, 24 hrs out had us under no warning.. only 12 inches fell!

We've experienced our greatest single fall of snow believe it or not since March 06, in an otherwise fairly snow starved season. Very akin to the storm arwen event late Nov 21 which brought extreme weather with snow then a snowless winter. Take out the 2 Dec event I'd be ranking it as one of worse winters on snowfall front. Cold wise, 2 decent albeit short spells late Nov- early Dec, and 2 weeks 6-19 Jan, again pushes the winter up the rankings, however, outside these periods the degree of mild weather has been exceptional. Feb 24 will go down as abysmal snow and cold wise.. Overall better than 13-14, 15-16, 16-17, 18-19, 19-20, 21-22 for cold and snow despite the anomalous warmth. My rankings, cold and snow wise, with 1 being snowiest (number of days and depth) and coldest . 1. 20-21 2. 17-18 3. 14-15 4. 22-23 5. 23-24 6. 16-17 7. 18-19 8. 19-20 9. 21-22 10. 15-16 11. 13-14

A rather miserable day weatherwise, moderate rain for a few hours, cleared mid afternoon, rather cold as well. Friday- Saturday has interest for snow lovers, low thicknesses sub 528 dam air..probably a high ground affair, but in any heavy bursts certainly snow could fall to low levels. Cold sleety rain to greet Spring isn't what many want no doubt, March can be a very raw cold month.

Winter 23-24 has been akin to winters 21-22 and 22-23 in many respects.. our snowiest spells came very early in the season this year i.e. 2 Dec, in 2022-23 before christmas and in 2021-22 late Nov! We had a cold spell third week Jan in 2023 ditto this Jan. In all cases Feb has been a write off for snow. What has happened to February! March has often been snowier.

Addicks Fan 1981 Lets hope for no Summer 98 repeat then. May delivered a very good spell of warm dry sunny weather, but the summer was very wet, little warmth and often cloudy. Winter 23-24 has shown similiarity with winter 97-98 mind.

Quite an unusual outlook as we enter March, but, perhaps not given Spring often delivers synoptics that verify far less than in other seasons.. A deep trough anchoring south, but not able to eject cleanly due to rising pressure to our east, instead it is forecast to sit in situ over the UK and advect west and join hands with upstream trough. A rather chilly wet start to the month likely. Into early March further a signal for heights to our east, and trough to our west/ sw. A SE flow but not a cold one most likely outcome, could deliver a spell of dry weather at least, but possibly rather grey and dull, mild but not especially so. All attention of what happens to those heights to our east, will the trough eventually go under, something that eluded us this winter, but quite naturally more likely into spring.

A decent day, bright, sunny spells, dry, chilly wind. A cold evening, frost developing. Out on the fells today. Evidence the sun has bite to it now. No snow on west to south east aspects, a good cover on all other aspects though.

Yesterday the longer range outlook was for a blocked one, what has happened today? It doesn't suggest anything, just reads akin to a text book describing late March climate. Terrible stuff.

Metwatch Opposite to winter it seems, when mild/very mild now seem to easily occur back to back, average/cold winters occuring intermittely every 3-5 years since late 80s with exception of 08-12 period and 95-97. 90-91, 93-94, 95-96/96-97, 00-01, 05-06, 08-09, 09-10, 10-11, 12-13, 17-18, 20-21... 24-25, or 25-26 next?

I think we just escaped a sizzler summer, Europe was very hot. I visited Majorca in July and arrived in an exceptional heatwave 40 degree temps. I remember late July on my return being very humid. A thundery humid often very warm summer. Forgotten because of the superb summer that followed.

raz.org.rain Not sure about el nino equals cold winters, other than Feb 83 the super el nino winters of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16, were mild. Indeed Dec 15 super mild. Always thought strong el ninos are bad news for cold winters, this one included. WYorksWeather Ah but the cold over the pole is equally cold, and any spillage south would counter those mild anomalies.

Daniel* Ok fair enough, shows how abnormal Dec 2015 was, this one feels more akin to Feb 98, the winter as a whole very similiar to 97-98 more than any other, a super el nino year.