damianslaw

Joe Snow Yes we were in the midst of a cold wintry spell that had set in on the 8th, and lasted through to the 15th. The 9th brought a few inches late on, which thawed quick on the 10th. The weekend 11-12th was chilly. The 13th milder and very wet, further snow on the 14th.

The models are moving away from any scandi height rise having an influence - a theme of the season as a whole. Instead there continues to be a signal for height rises albeit weak to our NW. This has the affect of sharpening the atlantic trough in combination with heights to our SW, again the theme of the season. End result, a return to a milder but wetter flow from between south and west, but no long draw warmer feed as yet. Longer term we may well see the atlantic trough anchor east and with a lot of cold polar air on its flank, we may see some of this spill down into the UK, indeed ECM output very plausible in this respect. GFS as well is playing around with a switch to locking the UK on the colder side of the jet as we move into latter third of March, but all too far away to call at this stage. For the foreseeable its all quite dull model viewing for weather enthuiasts who like something interesting, but March can entrench itself in quite uninteresting terrain for lengthy spells, same as the other shoulder month, September. April is the month for more sudden marked changes and interesting synoptics with the still cold arctic polar air doing battle with the ever increasingly warm tropical/continental air.

Wet damp ground, but not sure how much rain fell earlier in the morning. Its been dry last couple of hours at least. Rain radar shows rain to our east, but expecting only dribs and drabs here. Cloudy and quite cool, current temp 7.7 degrees. Indeed least inspiring day of the week weatherwise, typically coinciding with Mother's Day. Looking back at previous Mother Day's its often a very hit and miss affair, sometimes cold and wintry, sometimes very springlike and pleasant, this one sitting firmly in the average category.

It indeed began very poor, June 2012 one of worse summer months I can recall, relentlessly wet, dull and very cool..July was also quite poor, but warmer at times, lots of thunder. August 2012 was half decent. Summer 07 overall though was consistently very poor, and for this reason rank it lower than 2012, came as a shock on the back of 4 summers that featured appreciable long lasting heat at times, notably in 2003 and 2006. Summer 08 was a slightly better version of 2007. We were dealt a poor run of summers between 2007-12 but also good winters for cold and snow, I do wonder if the weak solar cycle had a role to play.... Since summer 2013 by and large we've been locked in a run of average to very good summers for heat and dryness, with odd exceptions, and poor to very poor winters for cold and snow again with odd brief exceptions. I remember being at this same juncture just before summer 2007..there was a marked shift in the jet south that summer..

A gradual warm up in the week ahead likely, mid month CET will probably be very near average. No clear signal how the second half may pan out, no obvious signs yet for a change to any appreciable warm or cold weather.

Not commented on the models for a number of days, namely because all they have been showing are very benign, quite non-descript synoptics. We currently have a north-south split, its chilly in the north with a feed off a cold N Sea, pegging temps in the 6-7 degree range, whereas further south the feed is off a milder continental location meaning low double digit maxes. Tomorrow set to be poor for most, chilly, rain or just low cloud. As we enter next week a change to a milder slack South/ South west flow but also the return of the atlantic trough, rain will become an increasing feature as fronts move through, they may become stuck as heights attempt to build to the NE as suggested by the ECM, but these look a weak feature and I expect the foreseeable to be atlantic driven, rain, or lots of cloud, chilly at night in any clear spots, temps a little above average but no early appreciable warmth on the cards. Sunshine limited sadly. Longer term - very uncertain, heights may build to the NW sending low pressure further south meaning lower temps again and possibly very wet. Just a feeling things may become interesting from either a cold or warm perspective in time for easter. Late March often marks the period of year when we see our least common place synoptics, easterlies, northerlies and odd cyclonic pattern behaviour...

Whilst a chilly easterly in March often brings cloudy skies and a raw feel, it does usually mean dry weather, and we are on our sixth dry day on the trot, and we've had some sunshine. I prefer them to the dreaded SW flow which is on the cards again next week, equating to low cloud, drizzle or rain, and in March 10-12 degree maxes which never feel particularly mild. March is a trying month for those who want a more definate spring feel and warmth. September is the other shoulder month. Frustrating for those wanting the first autumnal chill to arrive quick, feels a long summer hangover nowadays. Looking forward to the clocks going forward and proper arrival of spring.

Maz Indeed its felt seasonal unlike the previous 6 weeks.

Frigid Westerly airstreams with cloud and rain tend to deliver maxes anywhere between 18 and 22 degrees here... even in the height of summer.

Cheshire Freeze Agree dry southerly/se airstreams are not my cup of tea, high pressure overhead or to the north west and north or north east far better, less humid, with cool nights.

reef There is a strong correlation then.

LetItSnow! Interesting to note the very warm.summers of 76, 95 and to a lesser extent 2018 came on the back of very dry springs (2018 mid April onwards), feel a dry spring helps aid heat in the summer. Not sure how dry spring 2022 was though.There are probably plenty examples of dry springs followed by wet summers though!

Hoping the core summer period late June to mid August is far drier than last year.

tricol Yes we've had a run of dry days, can't recall last time we notched up 5 dry days on the trot. Last March was exceptionally wet and also wintry early on. However, I don't associate March and lots of rain, this March has felt more characteristic of what I expect from March, quite dry, often cloudy with chilly northerly and easterly airstreams. Mid March marks the driest quarter of the year on average in the Lake District, through to mid June. Best time to visit I believe. Back to today, fine, plenty of sunny spells, despite a warming sunshine, the easterly breeze is cold and requires 3 layer wrapped up attire.

Spindrift2017 Thanks for the info. I need correcting on my comment that many saw there coldest min before christmas. The mid Jan spell probably produced coldest mins for most. I think Shap was the coldest spot in England around -11 degrees. Nothing special, indeed many years have brought colder mins.

Highly unlikely we will see a lower minimum this season now, but stranger things have happened. Grateful if someone can post lowest min for England and Wales, and also Scotland. No notable cold this season, I think akin to last season, lowest min around -15 degrees. Again many places recorded lowest min very early in the season before christmas, becoming a theme, unusually. Mid Jan only other time any depth of cold happened.

Another decent day, its stayed dry, but rather cloudy. Quite chilly though. This day last year we were under a snow warning, Thurs 8th overnight delivered a few inches of snow. Alas the outlook is exceptionally non-descript.

A chilly start to March. Average temps for the foreseeable, no appreciable warmth or cold.

Turning into a surprisingly dry period after months of rain, feels quite strange having a run of dry days. There is a definate spring feel to things now largely on account of dry and sunny weather. On wet overcast days March often feels late winter still.

Mentioned many a time, winter 09-10 by far the best both in terms of snowfall and amount of cold. Though late Nov and most of Dec 10 was exceptionally cold, it brought limited notable snow here. Worse winter 13-14 just one day with wet snow that settled briefly, barely much frost or cold weather. 15-16 a very close near worse.

Weather Enthusiast91 Normal practice, spring typically delivers more northerly and easterly airstreams than the other 3 seasons.

Very interesting archive stats and info. I wonder whether there was influence from volcanic activity. The year of 1816 'year without a summer' I think was attributed to major volcano. However, others places were warmer thsn normal. One of those oddity years when the UK receives coldest anomalies. Nowadays that never seems to happen.

Rain overnight combined with slightly milder temps has removed a fair amount of snow on the tops even sheltered east aspects, a more patchy appearance. A very pleasant early spring day, more please!

A Face like Thunder Only vague memories of 1985 summer, sadly the 4 summers mentioned coincided with prime outdoor childhood play time, 7-10 years old and I remember far too many rainy days in the summer holidays/weekends. Summer 89 made up for it. Summer 84 was very good here, very dry, parched brown grass on the local 'rec'.

What's the reckoning easter will be colder than christmas, quite high this year I feel given how mild christmas was. Not unheard of when easter falls in March.