damianslaw

Looking further ahead into March, as many appear to be doing so, it is a very unclear picture. GFS notably is playing around with heights building over the top of a sinking trough and expanding and advecting east to become a significant block, but at the same time the PV lurks strong to the NW, and I doubt in such a scenario heights will be able to build so easily. ECM played around with such an evolution yesterday but today it shows the atlantic trough being the greater influence with any ridge development weak, preety much more of the same. In the meantime it finally feels like February, only 3 plus weeks late!

A dusting of snow on higher ground, can only view the east side of southern fells, Coniston range, Bowfell - Great End, Scafell Pike and Crinkles. There appears to be more on Bowfell area. Snowline approx 450m.

Metwatch Yes blame the combo of exceptionaly warm SSTs to our SW and the fact much of the month has seen an airstream from between south and west. Its extreme on a par with Dec 2015 incidentally an El Nino year...

Not surprised reports of hail, its a cold convective airmass aloft ripe for hail. The rain radar shows sleet and snow in showers to modest levels, probably 400m upwards. Current temp here 4 degrees, likely to have a ground frost, a rarity this February. Hoping the fells receive a good dusting of snow to give a rare decent winter's walking weekend - visibility in the polar air will be excellent.its been a dire season so far for winter walkers wanting snow. Anyone wanting that cold winter fix head to the hills this weekend..

Both GFS and now ECM hint at pressure rise by first weekend of March, with a signal for heights to ridge east.. something absent all winter, but probably more likely to verify as it will be spring! In the meantime a changeable outlook, northern half of UK may well see a good 3 day spell Sat- Mon as low pressure anchors further south, odd wintry shower, frost, fog and quite cold. Further south rather wet then dry by Monday. Tomorrow looks a cold blustery day, plenty of rain/ hail showers, sleet and snow on high ground, quite low levels in the north. February set to end unsettled with another deep trough feature moving into the UK.

Seems to achieve even just average mean temps in the winter months we need a true polar maritime NW veering N airstream as we have now, 20 years ago plus such an airstream would bring below means. An airstream between south and north west will always be mild/ very mild. Only a north to south east airstream will bring below. In summer, only an airstream between NW and NE bring below.

The timing of the cold front has been kind to Cumbria today, its been dry since daylight, and looks set to remain so until dusk. Bright skies and a welcome freshness it has a polar feel and look. Current temp 7.7 degrees. No snow on the fells as yet, but any showers overnight should be of snow to quite modest levels. We might see a good winter walking weekend with snow on high tops. been hardly any this winter, better late than never.

In the near term, the models are positioning low pressure on a more southerly track, north half of UK may escape with a dry sunny if not rather cold weekend. The low may even result in dry weather for all. Slack winds and clear skies is a recipe for frost. As we end the month, an amplified flow continues, heights ridging to our west behind further low pressure and trough swinging NW-SE. Temps very close to late Feb average, a little below in the north. A big positive is we should see much more in the way of sunshine thanks to polar maritime air.

A mixed day, moderate rain through the morning, by early afternoon it cleared and there was a great sunset with lingering light past 6pm, evidence of change in airmass. As said looking forward to brighter skies and sunshine and white returning to the fell tops.

This month as the case with June, Sept and December caught me out, I did not expect such a mild month. All those anomaly charts with heights to the NW and low to SE, how wrong. A finish in the high 7s, or low 8s likely, akin to a mild March.

The remainder of February set to stay mostly unsettled ending what will go down as a very unsettled, dull and very mild month. However, a change from very mild to closer to average is on the way Thursday onwards, quite probably continuing into March as we see the atlantic trough amplify and push azores high out west. Becoming very wet, windy at times, snow on northern high ground and light frosts in any sheltered areas in northern and central parts thanks to polar maritime air. Its the type of set up that can bring bright brilliant blue sky one minute then a sharp blustery hail shower the next and generally a cold feel. Longer term, just hints we might see more concerted northern blocking calming things down somewhat but not clear whether will be cold or nearer average with the jet riding across the UK bring cyclonic conditions.. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5039953

Reflecting on conditions since October, whilst consistently wet, so far, thankfully the Lake District hasn't experienced any significant flooding, just a bit of minor localised flooding. However, it probably would only take a couple of very heavy rainfalls to incur some significant flooding given how wet the ground is. The outlook is set to stay wet, but again nothing overly very wet or long lasting. Today has been poor so far, should hopefully improve through the afternoon. As said looking forward to tomorrow and some polar air with associated bright blue skies. Its been a very poor spell of weather since 20 Jan endless cloud and rain.

Whilst quite normal for late Feb, ECM is showing 4-5 days of sub 528 dam air north half of UK Thursday onwards and uppers touching -5 degrees. Likewise GFS12z which pushes 528 dam air further south and -5 uppers and for longer. Something we've not seen since 16-19 Jan.

Optimus Prime Ok, fair enough, I'm not seeking to make an argument of any sort.

iand61 March is often as cold as Jan and Feb at height, the drop in temp is usually at its most marked in March, upper air temps in northerly outbreaks can and often are colder than at any other point in the year, arctic at its coldest, SSTs bottom out, on northern high ground March is firmly still winter, brings more snow than December in an average year, catches many fell walkers out, when the valleys are bathed in increasingly warming sunshine with spring flowers out and birds tweeting. In late March 13 yes exceptional but snow held at valley bottoms. In late March 18 there was ice covering large parts of Thirlmere. As the case with September when the weather doesn't usually set into autumn mode until the equinox, I always feel the same with March, wait until the equinox and you can say spring is finally here. Still a month to go.. all the chat of spring is here early Feb....

Beginning to see a marked 'drawing out of the nights'... today still just enough light at 6pm to not need a torch in clear skies.

Weather-history Hadn't realised I posted a similiar comment about these mild Februaries 2 years ago and such synoptics would deliver today CET wise. I'm not at all discrediting climate change, but it dispels any arguments that we are seeing unprecedented warmth today, yes perhaps not the longevity of warmth as seen today, but certainly many examples of anomalous warm months, seasons and years in years gone by. I wonder if solar cycle energy and volcanic eruptions of a nature that favour warmth were key factors, or just simple natural variation.

iand61 Fair enough but March has a habit of throwing winter weather at us albeit the watered down type, April even more so as northerlies and easterlies make their annual appearance.

The remainder of February set to stay mostly unsettled ending what will go down as a very unsettled, dull and very mild month. However, a change from very mild to closer to average is on the way Thursday onwards, quite probably continuing into March as we see the atlantic trough amplify and push azores high out west. Becoming very wet, windy at times, snow on northern high ground and light frosts in any sheltered areas in northern and central parts thanks to polar maritime air. Its the type of set up that can bring bright brilliant blue sky one minute then a sharp blustery hail shower the next and generally a cold feel. Longer term, just hints we might see more concerted northern blocking calming things down somewhat but not clear whether will be cold or nearer average with the jet riding across the UK bring cyclonic conditions..

Not the best of days but not the worse either. The morning stayed dry, band of moderate rain moved through early-mid afternoon, soon clearing. Temps firmly stuck around 9-10 degree mark. Tomorrow morning will be very wet. and another very mild day on the cards. Looking forward to Thursday and brighter skies in the fresh polar air.. which looks like holding ground through to months end with heavy rain/ showers and clearer chilly breaks with snow on fells and return of light frosts reminding us it is still February.

Reflecting on the recent run of very mild Februaries.. it is quite unusual given Feb used to be the month when the polar vortex typically wound down somewhat, and high pressure had a greater chance of exerting influence, other than early half 2021, the PV has been very strong maintaining a very mild westerly/ south westerly, its taken until March to quiten down. Also in recent years its taken longer to step into gear.. note the relatively cold starts to winter and weak PV late Nov.. perhaps a reason why it is holding strong through Feb as it is revving into gear later.

Mark wheeler Same year as me. Feb 78 was quite unusual as a broad swathe most populated part of UK from Liverpool - Manchester to Birmingham to London saw little snow. Either side was very snowy.

Feb 2007 first month that springs to mind, snow widespread in central parts in an otherwise mild month. Jan 95 another one but the snow reserved for north of england, more than the south I believe. Such months are a rarity, widespread UK snowfalls tend to come from either cold easterlies which signify long lasting cold, or cyclonic cold set ups which again are associated with longer lasting cold.

LetItSnow! Makes you wonder what similiar synoptics today would deliver temp wise...the fact such temps occured then without affect climate change makes what happened then perhaps more remarkable than now.

The temperature last few days have hovered between 8 and 12 degrees... talk about temperate and static. Looking forward to Thursday and more variety.