damianslaw

Oh the dreaded long fetch SW airstream in full splendour.. whatever the time of year it brings low grey cloud and a dankness to things, a max of 12 degrees or 27 degrees in summer makes no difference to how I feel about it! Go away... its miserable, the least inspiring of all weather types.

Keep meaning to book that winter trip to N Scandi each year.. think I must next year to guarantee some decent snow and cold! only part of europe that seems a safe bet for freezing weather nowadays. Knowing my luck if I do it will be there mildest on record! I have a habit of visiting places when they experience notable warmth.. Moscow and St Petersburg New Year 06-07, expecting -10 maxes.. and it was all slush and muck with temps just either side of 0 degrees, Iceland late 07, stormy and mild... Portugal early June 22 exceptional early heat, Calgary 20 2010 Oct max of 20 degrees!...

WYorksWeather My perspective is from a Lake District one, whatever the time of year an airstream between west and south, our usual direction, means cloud, overcast, drizzle or rain either light, moderate or heavy. In February it feels down right miserable.

WYorksWeather Possibly the anomalous atlantic SST's are allowing the atlantic airstreams to hold more moisture combined with an omipresent high ridging through Iberia has enabled persistant moist tropical maritime airstreams to hold sway with added moisture thanks to more heat.

14 degrees combined with grey wet skies will never feel particularly mild, in February more so with the general dankness that pervades the atmosphere. The Feb sun is still relatively weak, not until March when 14 degrees under light winds and sunshine begins to feel pleasant.

PennineMark Yes its been a long wet spell since mid September bar a few brief drier slots, but thankfully here at least no serious flooding. Lots of days of light to moderate rain rather than heavy. We are now entering the driest quarter of the year here, and its rare to not have a 1-2 week dry spell at least at some point between mid Feb and mid June. I call it our 'drier season'.. note 'drier', not dry!

Struggling to find much interest in the outlook, I often feel like this in mid Feb as we transition into the inbetween season that is late winter, neither true winter or true spring, I feel the same in mid August, must be a seasonal affect.. The prospect of very mild but dreary grey wet skies after nearly 4 months of gloom fills me with little enthusiasm.

Theme of the models today trending towards less amplified flow late month, but still a signal for the atlantic trough to inch east, albeit it may struggle to clear the UK.. meaning we may exchange a very mild rather dank outlook for something more wet and wild with temps back closer to average, northern parts exposed to polar maritime air but nothing overly cold. A single anomaly of February since 2013 has been the propensity for it to deliver exceptional anomalous warmth on a number of occasions with mild long drawn south westerlies, apart from 2018 and weak attempt early 2021 the absence of northern blocking and winds from between north and east has been notable.. those classic scandi feb highs seem from a bygone age. Don't worry they'll be back to make there annual appearance at some stage in spring no doubt!

Mmm struggling to think a word to describe today's weather... 'pass'... next please..

Mike Poole Yes ECM aligning strongly with GFS, indeed there is strong correlation between both models right out to 10 days, rare we've been able to say that most of the winter so far.

MP-R The way cold prospects have been snatched away this winter wouldn't be surprised. You can make out two eyes and a scary mouth over Iberia. ECM is pulling in a strong westerly 7 days time kicking the high to the SW into touch. Perhaps this is as far as we should go now.. i.e. the very mild south westerly becoming a less mild but still mild westerly.

feb1991blizzard GFS maintains the theme of recent runs as mentioned in previous post i.e. trough heading east, cold polar maritime flow thereafter with temps closer to average as we enter latter end to the month. Such changes still out of the reliable, will wait to see if ECM follows suit. Immediate outlook very mild but rather grey and dull and not very inspiring.

Met4Cast A very good post, any further surmisings on the reason for last week's low pressure to behave why it did after many models were expecting it to go east not north west!

Reading today's updates, feels that its been written by two different organisations, the two don't flow. Also reference to 'warm' in February.. really!, since when can the Feb sunshine be called warm. Such phrases need to be substantiated. The recent updates have been all over the place.

Interesting to note GFS holding firm with pushing the trough east through next week and mid atlantic heights building to the west. A deep trough is shown with a NW- SE aligned jet, certainly a plausible evolution. Thereafter low pressure from the NW phases into the scandi trough. A cold unsettled end to winter would be the end product with snow likely to modest low levels in the north. Remember northerlies and easterlies become statistically more likely as we enter Spring, peaking in April and May..

A similiar day to yesterday so far, benign and cloudy, not much happening so far. Yesterday livened up markedly as the day wore on with heavy squally showers. However, today is set to just bring rain later.

Penrith Snow Not wishing to derail the thread by comparing how synoptics have played out this winter so far against 1997-98 and there are uncanny similiarities, more so both strong El Nino years, albeit 97-98 was super el nino, a very mild December in the main which produced a chilly spell - ditto Dec 23 albeit different timescales, a rather average Jan with a mini cold spell mid month and some dry frosty weather, and now a balmy Feb as was 1998... mmm makes you wonder.

A few showers of hail late this afternoon and the evening so far with the wind picking up has changed the benign feel of earlier half of the day. There was a dusting of snow above about 600m first thing, reminding me it is still only 12 Feb, despite daffodils about to burst open. A rather drab grey wet outlook, not inspiring in the slighest. February can sap all energy after 3 long dark months..

Mmm lots of change in some model output today i.e. ECM, gone are the heights lifting through the UK and instead the strength of the PV to the NW exerts control with a renewed unsettled push from the atlantic. GFS holds steadfast with the very mild south west flow becoming westerly and in time amplified. Just musing but doesn't a SSW result in a flushing out of the westerlies so to speak before its affects imprint fully. Many longer range modelling went for a ridge to the NW and trough to the SE, the recent suggestion of heights building through the UK didn't align with such scenario, whereas an increasingly amplified flow and eventual ridge to the west building north does.. just a few weeks later perhaps! In the meantime the long very mild period in the reliable remains and perhaps not as settled as first thought.

Updates on expected SSW would be greatly received.. conflicting messages at present.

Perhaps this winter will do a summer 2023 on us, bookended by cold instead of warmth i.e. the core summer period late June to late Aug was predominantly cool and unsettled and un summer like though temps were average following the heat at the start of June and back with vengence by September. Can't really compare the cold in late Nov/ very start Dec on same degree of divergence from norm compared to heat of June 2023.. but some synergies but only if first half of March is cold.

danm Yes I would agree for majority of population south of a line Preston to the Humber, but in the north unless the sun is abundant and only a few cms, then a good cover can stick easily for a couple of days.. indeed late March 13 proved this. Its important to draw the difference between north and south half of UK especially in March when there are often marked temp differentials. My location I do have a north half UK perspective in the minority I guess..

danm I guess it depends on what people's expectations are when it comes to cold wintry weather. I agree if after ice days and days of snow cover with mean temps 0 degrees or below, by March such weather is certainly statistically not likely more so further south, unless an exceptional synoptic i.e. 2018. However a few days of maxima in the 0-5 degree mark, run of sub freezing nights and a sprinkle or two of snow is certainly possible first half of March granted more so further north you go. Yes a low bar in context of what many may class as cold and wintry, but many would take it after a snowless winter further south. Last March gave us our most snow of the season, yes the sun went to work on it by lunchtime but we had a few very snowy days.

Sneaky feeling we may be premature with this thread. and winter could bite back hard by months end and into March, certainly not late enough to pack a punch. I sense much dispondency how it has panned put by and large, largely due to promising signals of colder weather perhaps beating off the atlantic more so second half of winter which since 20 Jan has not been the case. We have had many instances of cold wintry very tail ends to winter and starts to spring. Why am I saying all this, namely due to expected SSW affects, and given northerlies and easterlies tend to show there face come late Feb. This is not a forecast for wintry nirvana by months end, just that I feel we shouldn't close the book on winter weather until 2 weeks time if none is on the horizon.

A so-so sort of day so far. Its been dry, but the clouds look like they could threat rain any time. A chilly start and it feels quite cold despite a current temp 7.2 degrees. Its all quite benign stuff for mid Feb.