damianslaw

Grim synoptics either way for Cumbria. 14/15 degrees under heavily rain this time of year never feels warm. It is indeed my least favourite airstream anytime of year.. yet all too common latter part of the year. Synoptics that depress me to be honest.

Late this year on the ground frost front. Need one to turn colours properly.

Yes the dreaded SW airstream.. never good here any time of year. Hopefully fleeting and kicked aside by polar air. We had an injection of polar air late Sept and start of this month.

Can't see any appeal from the chart above, yes mild, but strong winds overcast or wet skies..

Current weather is about as uninteresting as it gets..

In a word, today's weather 'non-descript' - nothing to discuss... sleep mode.

Yes a return to more typical mid Autumn fayre into the new week. Atlantic comes back, wind and rain. The chart above for 20th shows a deep trough anchoring down into the UK, once it moves through we remain exposed to colder polar air with a strong ridge behind. In the meantime generally very quiet and little going on.

Can we have a frost soon please!

Quiet in here this evening.. probably because the models are showing very standard fayre for the time of year.. which generally means nothing overly mild or cold.. becoming more unsettled. All a bit humdrum and uninspiring.

Early snow build up over Scandanavia is a good factor for feedback loop increasing chance of colder weather here I feel. 2009 saw a sudden build, also 2012 I think..

These anomaly charts I doubt factor in stratospheric developments.. these are tricky to predict and there effects always unknown. I suspect they are based on factors such as Enso, SST's primarily.. solar influence, QBO probably not factored into account either.

Heights over Greenland is key though, would set up a deep trough to our NE and going by the anomaly chart above these features would cancel out the med heights. Also the green to the west of Iberia suggests cut off low..

Can't remember last time any long range forecast went for cold.. default is always mild and I take them with a pinch of salt.

November is possibly the most difficult time to tap into any notable cold for sustained periods. Really need a easterly or north easterly deep seated such as happened in 2010. Northerlies usually bring fleeting episodes before toppled by heights unless associated with Greenland heights which are extremely difficult to achieve in November. Scandi highs tend to more likely but still fairly elusive. I tend to associate cold in November with anticyclonic spell with high directly overhead. Night time minima can drop markedly and the weak sun struggles to raise daytime temps.

Other Octobers that featured potent northerlies end of the month include 2010 and 2012. I tend to include October in the 'lighter' part of the year.. this year clocks go back on the last day which will help a bit. The dark period comes after the clocks go back until they go forward. Mind the change 31 October will be mighty... Someone called the day the clocks go back.. 'dark Sunday.. more so this year coinciding with Halloween!

Agree a most pleasing day weatherwise. A cool start followed by plenty of sunny spells and light winds. Temperatures maxed about 14 degrees, sun still has a bit of kick to it. Need to make the most of the next 2-3 weeks before the clocks go back...

The direction to something colder comes courtesy of the ridge sinking south allowing a deepening Atlantic trough to swing down from the NW kicking the ridge out into the Atlantic. Takes a while to get there mild westerlies at first... the trough then digging into scandi..

Surprisingly last winter I think was our coldest since 2009-2010 despite it never being particularly severe. More a case we never endured anything exceptionally mild.. though second half of Feb was very mild. Snowfall wise we received only small amounts. Our last 6 inch plus snowfall was way back in Jan 2013. We missed out just in March 2013.. close call. Mind a single heavy snowfall that goes in a couple of days in a sea of mild is not what I want.. a few light snowfalls throughout winter that stick around much better.. preferably with one being a big snowfall will dom 2012-13 was great in this respect but the event in Jan lasted a day..

High pressure on the scene days ahead but it's orientation not favourable for anything particularly cold by the looks of things. Too much of an Atlantic flow trapped around its flanks and consequently rather alot of cloud. Pity as I was looking forward to clear skies at night and first frosts. Chance though in any clear breaks a few spots may record their first ground frost at least. On average third week Oct brings our first air frost.. we should have had our first ground frost by now and want one soon to help turn the colours on.. very late change this year.. nature looking more akin to early-mid Sept than early-mid October..

I'll take a few opportunities.. better than nothing. Preferably scattered throughout the winter.. and lasting a few days rather than one or two. I enjoyed last winter for this reason.. cold to start, cold from Christmas to mid Jan and then cold again early Feb. 2008-2009 was also very similar.. I don't like having to wait until late Jan for the first cold spell.. equivalent of waiting until late July before first hot spell.. Good to observe strength of blocking episodes west russia and scandi region rest of the autumn.. the more robust the better the chance if deep cold pool developing enabling to fend off what is traditionally a rampant Atlantic by the time we start December.. doesn't always equate to cold conditions here.. if the block orientated SE into east/se Europe we end up with milder southerly flow and trough stuck to the west.. conversely blocking that digs into scandi tends to lead to a more amplified flow and negative aligned trough allowing for easterlies and undercuts with low heights forced underneath and then either cold cyclonic or very cold NE episodes...

Above chart a defintate direction of travel as we move into the last third of October.. high pulled west and we become exposed to polar air from between west and north.. deep scandi trough forming..

Last 10 days of October is traditionally an unsettled period, first storms of the season often occur and first snows for the fells. The 20 October to 10 Nov period is true autumn for me... a time of rapid change in feel..

Mmm cold winters seem to happen during some recent times of economic woe.. 78-79, 09-10 and to a lesser extent 90-91.. recession period of early 80s as well, 81-82.. mind the energy oil crisis and 3 day week 73-74 coincided with a mild winter..

2016 was a non-entity of a year weatherwise struggle to think of anything interesting about it.

Half decent winter 09-10! Coldest for many since 78-79 and colder still in N Scotland. It was a proper cold winter.