london-snow

Yup would love the bottom of that high to sit and just prop above the M74 rather than the cursed M4 ? Another fantastic set of overnight ops.

Well we’ve missed out thus far bar a few brief wintry showers on a north westerly flow about time something to smile about, Great op’s today ALL ROADS LEAD TO COLD ?

No good to us we all want D6+. D10-D15 will cause nothing but headaches and probably yet again cursed luck.. The fact that the meto and other pro services are calling for the cold easterlies to arrive by D5-D7 is comforting to me atm,

Ecm looks very good up to +96 and then goes down the route to show a different variation (the delayed route). I would be a very happy cold camper this morning with across the board easterlys showing up. It’s day 5 and beyond we start to see varying solutions nothing terrible at all but we really want the quickest route to cold and not be left in a middle ground ‘holding pattern’ until day 10 where we all know if it can go wrong it will. p.s fax charts will be interesting later and could/should shed some light on what the pros are thinking ?

Looking solid at +120 ? At +144 not as good as last night,

All roads lead to cold it seems all be it with variations and in some op’s a slight delay. Would like to get the pattern in sooner rather than later though and that currently is the form horse say D5.

Yup it’s at D7 whereas the majority of other ops has us in some sort of easterly by D5, Not a bad chart mind but the quicker the better imo.

Let’s see if the gfs can edge back even further after it started crawling and cowering last nights op, If it does and ecm stays firm then imo it’s game set and match..

Icon starting to roll out let’s hope it’s a great start to the morning ?

Maybe just a thought to go old school from now on in until resolved and stick with plain old fax charts? God i never thought I’d say that in this day and age with what’s available at our disposal ?

This is getting just plain ludicrous now, I cannot remember the last time we had such big differences at such short range.

Only up to +111 steady atm and no major stark differences atm otherwise people will be calling 111 ?

Yes facts and science and that where the met comes into its own they have so much more data available to them and have highly paid professionals in the meteorology field and that’s why I feel upbeat about the outlook, until they change their wording then I’m a believer.

Models I do beg my pardon ?

Fwiw ba some of the more ‘lesser suites’ going the same way as ukmo this morning, ?

Good to see your battery is topped up with juice for once mate i think you’ll need it.. So baring the gfs op (have yet to see the ensembles) we seem to be off to a flyer (Awaits ecm) but 96+ is a nod towards the ukmo route of thinking imo hopefully this is moving day ?

So that’s 2–1 thus far for the easterly with a big ecm coming up can it seal the result or will it send us into sudden death extra time.. As mentioned above though GFS is not a total disaster and not far away from a good chart. Not a bad start to the meteorological day imo..

That’s not far off a pretty tasty chart the placing of the high is crucial imo a tad further nw and we’re in..

I am looking forward to our trip down to Bristol next wedensday could be a bit dicey if what we have seen verifies.. Also agree in the fact that I think we will see a sudden straight route to cold from the east around the day 6 timeframe.

So has near every other model. Op’s are clueless atm ensembles are what i am intrigued by, All this ‘We won’t get the first attempt’ & ‘Our boat has sailed’ to me is utter nonsense whilst we have no clear trend in the 5+ day timeline..

Wait until we see where it (The op) sits in the ensembles and go from there..

Ecm ensembles will be interesting yet again i suspect the signal is either delayed or the op sits on the milder side. I personally think op runs are pretty misleading and can cause a lot of panic or excitement on here with this situation unfolding, I prefer ensembles to show the way forwards.

Looking at the overnighters mucka has posted yes each runs will vary but what seems clear is they all paint and put us into a cold / very cold picture. Key timeframe seem between 19th-22nd for the transition, Glad I booked the 21st-28th off work ?

ALL I SAY is that you was mentioning the beasterly only two days back via your tv source. Still give it another 48 hours before any output starts to show the way and weather going forward.

Hi John, I am no expert in stratospheric warming’s and what goes on high up. What I have read through is that we are looking at around day 10 say 20th a tad before or after for the effects of this warming, We may or may not see cold nirvana but a ssw increases the chances of winds coming from a eastern source. I know you hold your 500 anomaly charts in high regards but at two weeks out perhaps it does not factor in the above and other factors that may have a big influence on why others and your ex colleagues at the met see it differently?