london-snow

Encouraging I admit GP (And great to see you back by the way) however a split PV just for those who think all routes lead to cold we need a load of luck as it doesn't mean cold and snowy weather for us.

Agree I'd wish we see some trends gather speed either way It's no point hoping on dream runs 300+ hours away. As I said last night the longer these 'dream runs' remain just that the more chance of the Atlantic return and I stand by this. Fair enough some up north has seen snow already but the majority on here don't care about snow falling at higher ground we want widespread and that's what I struggle to see going forward.

Agree totally, People that are pros are banging on about 2-4 weeks + away stating that the trend is our friend and that things our in our favour odds on ect... We cannot nail down a LP system 24hrs in advance let alone 2+ weeks in advance. Personally yes we are currently in a better position going forward than the last few years, however imo the longer the blocking continues and with no real cold prospects ahead the more likely Atlantic will return. IMO (Grasp what we can for now as 4+ weeks may never deliver).

Have to agree with Nick we have been fed up the past few winters with liners such as ' The worm is turning ' ' Odds on ' ect ect which never materialised If their is the chance of a cold spell in a reliableish time frame TAKE IT! Although the right signals are being thrown in FI people forget that just one problem I.E shortwave and or spoiler or where will a ssw land us and anything and everything else can have a mass impact on our weather mild or cold a few weeks down the line. On a personal note glad to be back for this years hunt for cold and snow and signs are encouraging going forward but we've all been here before..

I honestly cannot see what's to be despondent regarding today's/tonight's output, imo and i invite those to shoot me down if wrong but i feel that what we will see is a 'HARSH' cold outbreak (in comparison to recent years) where I feel a n-w - eventually sustained n-e -e wind pattern I do however feel that it will take a while for the pattern to become established so time frame wise : coldish - cold - already - 24th, possible breif mild and or a sw attack standoff possible incursion 25th - 29th, cold easterly / north easterly 30th onwards,

Well I'm back... and a very happy new year to you all, one or six words in brief - classic case of westward correction. Those that disbelive need not to look no further than into times gone by (archives), what I expect : A blend between the ukmo and ecm, cold for a week then a battleground synario followed by a even colder plunge.. see you all on the cold side :-)

Around 2-3 cms here a beautiful sight and still falling albeit light. Finally my habit for snow has been fed. Time for a fag..

Light snow in morden atm giving a very light dusting on tables and bins

Agree wholeheartedly, As i stated a few months ago you can have all the background signals pointing in a favorably however i get the feeling that most on here think it leads us automatically into a colder outlook which as i previously stated it doesn't. It's just another piece to a big puzzle.

Sod the snow god!

Nothing here in south west london and the wait goes on

Very heavy sleet currently in windsor. Temp has suddenly plummeted.

Honestly you seem to have such a up & down day it's a lot like the output we have been seeing the past few days. Those who read my past few posts (A few days ago) as i stated a good chance of seeing a easterly set up call it a gut feeling... However viewing the latest output and the hints if not trend to a cold easterly especially from the gfs which shows a big backtrack should we take that as gospel? IMO I don't think so i feel that a half way house will play out I.E a settled period with frost and fog on offer. After that it's anyone's guess/prediction. I'd love to be proved wrong but after sticking to my previous thoughts and posts i now can see a sinking LP after christmas followed by a prolonged period of stubborn HP its where we go from that point i feel our winter will be won or lost. Merry Christmas to all on here and I hope im way off the mark.. I doubt I'd get a lot of likes for this post such as sm & tiets however i like the rest of you are hoping for that big undercut into a cold easterly which is my favourite. Let's all hope the trend from the gfs continues and grows stronger. As we have seen before the gfs handles easterlys BAD and as we all know regarding past e/ene in winter comes the big two words with the gfs WESTWARD CORRECTION..

It'll be interesting to hear from ian f as i note he hasn't posted in a few days. Obviously no doubt shannon entropy i would have thought would feature if he does give us a update. However it will be insightful as to what the thinking is from the meto. Personally i have a gut feeling that we could see a cold spell appear within the medium period from the ne just a few hints over the past few days although nothing concrete. The output being so laughable atm (no clear trends) also leads me to feel something is about to happen. Could be strat related who knows but very interesting viewing nonetheless.

Remember 24 hours back re ecm op all? Best judge where it sits in the ensembles before reaching for nicks new and improved 2014/2015 prozac pills.. Mild outlier again let's hope

Yes and i am by no means stating that there has been winter offerings for us thus far except for those in the n/nw. I am just stating that to the original poster key and favorable ingredients doesn't mean or lead us coldies into glory we still require that luck.. Things seem to be coming together in relation to the strat thread and all the wonderful work and effort they put in. Let's hope it pays out in billions of white 50p pieces

Whilst i very much appreciate the effort who base their lrf's around factors as previously mentioned because it does statically aid and improve chances of the pattern painted becoming a reality it does not mean however it will happen as projected. There have been past examples where we have had all the *key ingredients* however something has scuppered our chances for example being on the wrong side of favourable blocking synarios when the pv has been disjointed following a strat and continued strat warming. As i say in my view its a aid and a big aid of that and to have such great input from those in the know is invaluable however it is not a decider and we still require a high element of luck to produce the goods. This is why i am always very sceptical of people using the phrase 'Another bite of the cherry should do it' before you know it another week ot two have passed. Grab every opportunity what arises..

Good update from ian if you wouldn't mind posting a link that would be great I could also see the potential over the past 24 hours more so today of a start n/nw flow but as new year approaches a increasing n/ne flow. (Would post charts explaining but currently unable). This is why i have been even more encouraged to see eastern europe primed to go cold. Plenty of possibilities but still a while to go

Equaling amusing is the charts you posted a few days back touting a milder christmas synario if I recall... It's not about the detailing at this precise point it's about the trends and over the last 24 hours you can't deny that there is a clear trend in nearly every set of output viewed of a route to a colder outlook christmas and post. Granted a long way to go and a lots more hurdles to jump but it is interesting to see that most if not all models are bringing in some type of cold spell. On a personal note it's great to be back after what was a horrendous winter 2013/2014. Let's hope that we see them christmas and beyond charts come to fruition

The phrase ' I can hear you my lord but i cannot see you '

I did say that nick a.k.a. Dr Sussex has got a deal lined up with the meto will his emergency prozac tablets be needed tomorrow morning or will we leave him with the overstocked tablets that he is just going to chuck in the river because they won't be needed on this occasion. See you tomorrow all hopefully i won't be making that hot line call...

Morning all.. Glad that none of us has had to call Dr Sussex out of hours emergency prozac line this morning. UKMO solid as she goes a continuation of the broader pattern from previous output up to +120 which is where i am looking up to. GFS was looking good and looking nailed on to side with the UKMO but in typical fashion goes off on one (It really does love sending energy east). Big ECM coming up soon. It's been up and down recently but it's now approaching crunch time let's hope it sides with the UKMO and the GFS will come crawling back in line eventually (Regular as clockwork). Great start to this morning let's hope support grows.

To me all these comments seem to only relate to one thing only.... IMBY!!! Let's await the postage stamps and where the ecm sits with regards to it's ensembles before calling Dr Sussex prozac hotline I'd suggest. All in all i think it's been a great day thus far with the output ( If it's cold you are after ) that goes for the ecm also considering what a fruitless winter coldies have endured thus far.

There tampering with the data. Word has it that they have a deal set up with dr sussex and his magic prozac pills lol..

Darren Bett is a mild ramper point one.Secondly it is far too early to be making statements saying that a cold spell is on its way with snow and ice likely to the general public as panic will set in when the pattern is not set in stone. Still much more runs needed to be sure by no means a certain.