Met4Cast
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So why was greenland called greenland,because it was green and lush,might aswell call it whiteland otherwise.
From a book I`ve read recently about this.
Scores of scientific papers show that the medieval warm period was real,global and up to 3c warmer than now.
Then,there wereno glaciers in the tropical andes:today they`vre there.
There were viking farms in greenland:now they`re under permafrrost.
There was little ice at the north pole:a chinise naval squadron sailed right round the artic in 1421 and found none.
The antartic,which holds 90% of the worlds ice and nearly 16.000 glaciers,has cooled and gained ice-mass in the past 30 years,reversing a 6,000-year melting trend.
Data from 6.000 boreholes worldwide show global temps were higher in the middle ages than now.
And the snows of kilimanjaroare vanishing not because of temperature rising but because of post-colonial deforestation has dried the air.
In some places it was warmer than now in the bronze age and in roman times.
It wasn`t C02 that caused all those warm periods,it was the sun.
And global temps have cooled since 2007 since the quietest sun for a century which is not surprising.
Another link here which I havn`t seen until now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6425269/The-real-climate-change-catastrophe.html
How do you explain 2010 being one of the warmest years Globally, on record, then?
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33c here in faversham today, hate to say it but the person who mssged me earlier sayimng my thermo was broke was wrong! (PS not you Daniel) 31.5c at mo and extremely humid.....
PS anyone doubting should see the storms that fired off in north spain when the sun had gone down....... thats what we r in for......
getting bbq warmed up, wine open, good lightening watching people!
Its unbearable isn't it? I wouldn't mind if it wasn't for the humidity. In Spain I can quite happily sit out in 40c+ heat. But here, anything about 26c with the humidity is horrible.
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It's still 31c here in North Kent, down from a high of 33c. The line of rain coming out of France doesn't look particularly exciting, our only hope is for something to kick off as the Cold Front heads East. It is sadly, looking increasingly unlikely, though.
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My storm risk says at 16:00 2510.5 j/kg and -7 I have 0% risk of a storm but at 19:00 734.5 j/kg and -3 I have a 71% risk of a storm...is that an error is that due to when they think the cap may break?
Just because there's CAPE and LIFT around it doesn't mean there will be a thunderstorm. You have to have precipitation.
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Maybe it does in a tentative sort of way, but not through a solar minimum rather at when solar activity is high. In layman's terms, the jet stream moves poleward at a time of higher solar activity this resulting in warmer temperatures/waters moving North also. This then causes a melting of the icepack in the Arctic, which then equates to colder waters moving towards the equator, thus resulting in a mixing of salinity/warmer waters with the colder waters from the poles.
Perhaps, but the only way the sun really does power the Gulf Stream is by heating up the waters at the equator which causes the colder, denser water to rise, starting off the current. Of course, as the Earth warms up, more amounts of fresh water flow into the sea, upsetting the salinity balance in the water, effectively cutting off the Gulf Stream leading to an Ice Age.
However, I haven't seen significant proof that the Gulf Stream is started to shut down, so I don't think we need to worry too much just yet
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Yeah they've seemed to both decrese at similar times, the gulf stream is definatley being blocked which in the coming winter or two we should start to see the lag effect of.
Do you have a link showing the Gulf Stream has decreased? The Gulf Stream decreasing would mean less warm water in the Atlantic, which I think, helps to fuel the Jet Stream, so without the warmth of the Gulf, the Jet Stream is forced further Southwards.
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Don't think anyone has really brought this up before put do you think the low solar actvity is linked to the weakening of the gulf stream?
Unlikely. The Gulf Stream is made up from Ocean currents due to salt salinity/warm and colder waters. The sun is unlikely to be the driver behind the Gulf Stream. The Jet Stream however, is atmospheric, so the sun has a greater affect on that.
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That was because alot of the earth's water was locked up on ice sheets that were on the land.
Floating ice has no affect on sea level. If the ice was floating on water, and then melted, sea levels would stay exactly the same. When you have a glass of water with ice cubes on a hot, sunny day. As the ice melts, does the water level rise in the glass? It's the same principle, albeit on a very large scale.
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I think the too cold for snow is annoying simply because it rarely is that cold in the UK and is always said with such blind confidence. On the warming-up before snow thing, it's usually prefaced with "It always", which of course is nonsense as anyone experiencing a south-moving winter cold front will know.
Work colleague this morning..."Snow at the weekend. Looking good for Christmas then".
Another thing that annoys me is when my forecasts are poo-pooed by those with absolutely no interest in the weather. It happened at a family party at the weekend. I mentioned in passing that people might not want to plan anything involving a lot of travel this weekend, "just in case there's snow and ice" which was met with "Forecasters don't know what's happening tomorrow, let alone next weekend" and "It won't snow, it's too early in the winter".
It's one of those subjects upon which everyone is an expert, it seems.
Ah yes, I have to say this annoys me more than anything else. Whenever I tell my friends that theres a risk of snow before the TV forecasts are saying anything, they always seem to say "No it wont, it never does" despite me being right about it most times. I don't understand why people do this?
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Sounds like a great forecast, I hope it comes off
Just out of interest, how accurate are you guys normally? I haven't really been following the forum until the last couple of weeks so I don't know what your track record is, thanks
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this is another output that varies if not day by day then week by week. I kept the one issued on, I think, 21 October, it showed January as cold now it has it above normal for the bulk of the UK. It also had cold as this issue, but pale rather than dark blue showing for much of the UK. So beware that you are not taken in by it showing what you want to see, be it cold or mild. Much the same with the CFS charts on Net Wx and the daily one.
They are fun to watch so long as you are not too disappointed if they do not turn out as you hoped they would!
Indeed.
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December is looking pretty cold according to the CFS
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So where are today's easterly winds sourced then. From the east?
There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.
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Going by what the MO have said in the forecast above, I think it's safe to assume the colder air will not be brought down by an area of low pressure, considering they're going for settled weather and below average rainfall in the West, which suggests they are expecting High Pressure to be close to Western Parts.
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At no point am I aware that the met office have suggested where the air is sourced. When voicing opinions about the met office it is important to be factually correct when quoting them otherwise we end up in this kind of discussion.
My comment was tongue in cheek anyway!
The MO said this, and I quote "Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts" Forgive me for suggesting they are forecasting winds coming in from the East. I must have been thrown off by the mention of "Easterly Winds"
I think its fairly safe to assume that when they mention Easterly Winds, that the source of said winds is likely to be from the East. Is that not a fair assumption to make?
Only on Net-Weather can someone jump down someones elses throat over absolutely nothing, deary me.
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Haven't areas been having a wintry mix in an easterly flow today? So sm2006 look out of the window!!
Yes, but cold air wasn't sourced from the East, it had been dragged down with quite an intense area of low pressure. That's very different to winds coming in from the East and bringing wintry showers across Eastern areas, isn't it? I don't see anyone criticizing the Metoffice here, but rather wondering and discussing a forecast they issued for today. This is after all a discussion thread, why can't people voice opinions on this forum without others jumping down their necks? It's ridiculous.
Yes, I guess wintry showers would be possible in an Easterly flow later this month and into early December, but I think even the more experianced forecasters realise it'd usually take something special to get wintry showers to lower ground from an Easterly before the middle of December/Early January.
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forgive this post Snow-Man and admin/mods but it has to be said.
How those with almost no real depth of knowledge about meteorology feel able to make such comments following an output from a world leader in meteorology, all its aspects, whatever many may think regarding their long term forecasting, I find really quite amusing.
Do you think they are not aware of what the temperatures over Europe and Scandinavia are now, or what they will be for the period of the forecast?
Some of you really do amaze me.
I think he was stating that because Europe isn't looking particularly cold, it's hard to see how Easterly winds will bring wintry showers to Eastern coastal areas like the Metoffice are suggesting? Hes perfectly right IMO and well within his right to voice an opinion.
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I've been reading through and I think I may be getting and hang of this more technical stuff now. Can anyone tell me if what I'm saying would be correct?
The MJO has moved into Phase 5 and the composites for that for November suggest a weak high pressure to our East, with a major trough in the Atlantic.
The MJO is forecasted to move back into Phase 6 later on
The composites for that suggest High Pressure to our North, but largely over the United Kingdom
The NAO and AO are forecast to move to a more neutral/weak positive, before returning negative again in the next 10 days. So does this mean we can expect to see a temporary return to Atlantic weather systems, with the wettest and windiest weather towards the North and West, before a return to a cooler, more blocked type weather system into the second week of November?
I'm still learning, so If i've said something wrong, could you help? Thanks.
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I wouldn't worry about a mild Nov affecting how December will turn out Bobbydog. Last November was between 1.5 and 2.5°c above the 71-2000 average
as well as being wet and windy but we all know what Dec 2009 turned out like
:DYeah, a milder November might not be too far off the mark is the CFS Pressure Anomalies are anything to go by..
Northern blocking never really gets going until December according to that chart, which would tie in nicely with Net-Weathers winter forecast.
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Ah dear silly season has began globally I see...those forecasts will bust, there just isn't enough cold in the Arctic to beat the little ice age winters, even if synoptics were to produce an extreme set-up for Russia...
As for the AMO/NAO relationship, I wasn't aware there was one that works like that but what does tend to happen is -ve NAO winters tend to allow the tropics and also the northern waters to really warm up because of the weaker subtropical high pressure belt and that eventually allows a +ve AMO to strengthen. The perfect example of that occured last winter actually.
The CFS seems to have downgraded the cold for this winter today.
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The La Nina is really becoming very impressive right now, will be interesting to see how everything behaves. IMO we are probably in a similar position globally to where we were in the 50s in terms of how everything is evolving with regards to the PDO and the strong +ve AMO.
The key question is whether the La Nina induces a mid 70s/98-00 and 07-08 type pattern or whether it causes a mid 50s type set-up.
I'm going to keep my expectations low for this winter, because typically strong La Nina's combined with the QBO state we are in don't tend to bode all that well for our winters.
I was under the impression that we were in a -QBO at the moment? Surely thats good news for the winter months?
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Sorry what is PWS, Id like to head over to their website and contact them. Thanks.
Positive Weather Solutions.
A few days ago they were forecasting floods for the end of the month, now they're forecasting snow.
Anyway, best get back on topic before the mods get their baseball bats out and start banning people.
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Ah I see, so as I said no proper start of winter as described by the links I saw.
It was probably PWS that you saw forecasting that, if thats the case ignore it, they're always wrong. I don't think we'll really see winter starting properly until Mid October/November
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There were some links posted here from a weather forecasting company saying how this winter will start at the end of september. Has anyone got that link? They forecast snow for the end of September. The weather this week seems to very summer like with temps in the low 20's, looks like that forcasting company has egg on its face already. I think they based its forecast on a declining gulf stream.
You're right in saying it'll be feeling warm this week. But thats due to a weak area of low pressure building Northwards into the North Sea. The Mild Spell will be short lived because as we move through into the weekend, colder air will return from the N/NE before high pressure builds in across the United Kingdom bringing some cold nights with fog and frosts likely away from coastal areas.
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YES! It must be true, this will be the coldest winter for centrys coming up!...........The Daily Mail are always so so right!!!
lol
Please, quote me where I said "It WAS going to happen" because I don't remember saying it. I simply posted some links which could tie in with what others have been talking about.
P.S. Check your spelling for "Centuries"
Sea Surface Temperatures
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Considering it's BELOW the average, I'm going to say it's not normal. There seems to be some very warm SSTs to the North of Iceland heading North-East.
Weird.