Met4Cast
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Posts posted by Met4Cast
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Its clear just how uncertain the BBC are on Fridays potential. An hour ago they showed snow for London, and in their latest forecast just now they were showing sleet. It seems to change with each forecast.
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I think that colder air maybe skirting with e Kent already
I'm on the N Kent coast and Dew points are just below freezing here, 1c air temperature and dropping fairly fast.
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I noticed there were some snow clouds coming over and then it started to rain, I looked outside and there were actually quite a few snow grains mixed in (I know it wasnt hail, it was far too soft and they were very small)
So I've just had a heavy sleet shower here in S.E London - Now its cleared, its VERY blue outside, its almost as if I've got blue tinted sunglasses on, very weird.
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According to the NW radar theres snow in the SE of England right now
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Anyone agree with me that East Anglia and the South East could see some sleet/snow tomorrow afternoon/evening? Temps a tad high at 5-6c maximums but under PPN I would expect it to fall and with -5 uppers I would say there is certainly a half decent shout for some wintry stuff in those areas I just mentioned.
I'm surprised no ones making more of it.
I was looking at the risk for tomorrow too - But dewpoints are above freezing so I think anything other than some sleet in the heavier bursts is unlikely. We could see wet snow over the Downs I guess, but certainly no snow to lower levels. Monday though, if any showers develop they'll almost certainly fall as snow.
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i dont use it but i hear its very accurate you could just look on local webcams online were these showers are coming in to see what they fall as.....
Its out at sea so I don't think any cameras would be picking it up. It shows rain showers moving into SE England though.
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what part of the channel the nw forecast thing shows a snow waring for margate in kent......
It shows snow just off the SE coast, and sleet over Southampton. How accurate is it?
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The NW extra radar is showing SNOW in the channel, surely its wrong?
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Well seeing as we have sleet here and it's only saturday evening! , bodes well i suppose :lol:
Yes it was sleet , rain does not splodge on the windscreen like that!. Plus we had hail earlier , i know what sleet looks like
Haha awesome. That gives me slightly more hope of seeing some sleet tomorrow in the showers. Although upper temperatures seem to be a little high hmm, was you up quite high?
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WOOHOO!!!
I was watching tv and i heard what sounded like a downpour with hail outside on the conservatory roof. Looked outside and it was raining with alot of sleet mixed in splodging on my car windscreen!
First sleet of the winter :lol:
Are you sure it was sleet?
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Yay the forum is up and running, for now at least..
The ECM is looking VERY good again tonight, the shortwave feature is a little further East which is good news for those who are looking for snow on Thursday. It'd be nice to see the GFS follow the ECM on the tracking of the shortwave now. If we can get it a little further away from the UK i'll be happier.
All in all, a very good run from the ECM. Now all eyes go to tonights 18z.
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Have already had a light snow shower at 2:00 this afternoon, was also briefly sleety at 10am.
Hmm are you sure? Dew Points seem WAY too high for snow.
Wrong , some have hail
Haha, I meant mostly of rain rather than sleet or snow. I wasn't really thinking of hail, but yes, some of the showers may contain hail too
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Here in Gravesend, there seems to be alot of thick cloud building from the North-east from the Estuary, is this to be expected?
Yeah showers are coming in from the N Sea, all of which will be of rain, sadly.
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Thing is, people want snow and not just the cold, i expect many peeps to be disappointed with this run. To me there is signs of yesterday's ecm coming into play with the Northern arm of the jet being to strong consequently heights are lowering a touch.
We might get a Northerly reload for people to ramp over.
People have said this time and time again, looking for snow at this stage is just pointless. With a setup like this, the longer the cold lasts the better, because we then have an increased risk of seeing some very good snowfalls. Lets get the cold here for a couple of days before we start worrying whether we'll see lots of snow.
I'm keeping a close eye on Sunday/Mondays potential for snow in the SE, although its hardly likely to give more than a dusting, or 1-3cm across higher ground, thats also in a slightly more reliable timeframe and the GFS have been fairly consistent with the risk. The 06z GFS run seems to want to bring the PPN and colder air in through Sunday instead of Monday however.
But like I say, lets get the colder air in, and then we can begin snow hunting.
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The GFS could fall into line with the ECM at 18z tonight and the UKMO at 00z tomorrow and that would be that.
So I'm afraid there's no room for complacency here. 2/3 is not good enough- we need all 3 to be on board and fast.
True - But still, 2/3 is better than just one model going at it alone, like the ECM seems to be doing at the moment. We have the AO being forecasted to fall off the charts, and NAO being forecasted for negative too - I find it very hard to believe that we'll see nothing, specially as the GFS and UKMO have been very consistent so far.
Tonight and tomorrows runs will be crucial.
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I'm only 18, but even I know you cant pin everything onto one single run, specially when the two other main models are going for colder weather still
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But Mr Eagle the ECM is a medium range model, it is normally very good.
However I've just compared the ECM at 72hrs(the first useful chart it produces) with Meto and the various GFS ensembles and there isn't a single run that backs it up, the ECM has from the very start of it's run put the HP too far south (the 1020 line is over 700 miles further south at 96hrs) and the southerly undercut and associated LP positions in a very different makeup.
If you were to look at te 72hr chart alone nobody could rightly pretend that ECM is right and the rest of the world wrong. !
Sorry ECM is missing a few screws atm and just not handling something correctly.
I have no less confidence after seeing the ECM. !
I couldn't agree with you more.
I understand why people are concerned, usually the ECM is a very good model. Although this time around its consistency has been rubbish and thats what you really need to look for when predicting cold spells like this. The charts that show more consistency, which in this case would be the GFS and UKMO (bar the wobble the UKMO had yesterday) are more likely to be the accurate ones. The ECM has chopped and changed quite a lot in the last few days and I think the ECM will be back on board come tomorrow. We still have the big 2 on board, so I'm not worried either.
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Some areas had snow in October and November last year - So its certainly possible.
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Warm sector coming in from the NE...could have an opportunity for some sleet/snow and cold air being reintroduced behind it.
Definitely an upgrade - The 06z showed a slightly warmer, yet brief 850hPa temperature after Sunday before going cold again come Thursday. But the 12z seems to want to keep the -5c air over us which is fantastic news. Now we look to the ECM and UKMO later today. Hopefully they will both be showing support.
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This run will be a stonker,high is further north to the 6z,more like the 0z.
What about the dew points though?
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9610.png
They're still above freezing, which is why I think we'll most likely see drizzle rather than snow flurries.
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What does that mean?
It means a Greenland high is much more likely to form. When the AO dives negative like that its a very good sign for colder weather. The 12z is rolling out and shows the high very very slightly further North and West, only by a couple of miles though.
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I don't think we really need to worry about todays UKMO output. It seems the only person who is actually forecasting milder weather and thats Darren Bett
I think we can safely say that it'll turn colder now. We have good support with the ECM and GFS, and until today the UKMO was also in support with the other models, as someone has just said, the ECM and GFS have both had a wobble and now its the UKMO turn.
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UK Outlook for Friday 26 Dec 2008 to Sunday 4 Jan 2009:
In general we can expect high pressure to dominate the weather during this period. As quite often happens in these situations in winter though, there will be a fair amount of cloud around, and under any clearer spells we can expect a mixture of mist, freezing fog and frost to form during the night-time periods and these will be slow to clear again during the following following days, perhaps persisting all day in a few spots. The temperature will become well-below average average for the time of year and there are indications of a cold easterly wind developing particularly in southern parts, and this will bring an increasing risk of some sleet or snow flurries.
MO update sounds good.
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Clear blue skies.. 6.4c.
Lovely out B)
East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I think we maybe seeing the early developments of a steamer across the Thames Valley. Increasing amounts of PPN are being shown on the radar in the last 30 minutes, cloud has certainly been rolling off the sea in the last hour and is increasingly getting thicker and thicker. The risk is very low, but not impossible.