Met4Cast
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Right this is excatly the same boat as me. I saw No snow in Feb only little balls that melted into slush on contact. My kids eldest 9 has never made a
snowman etc. I Haven't even told them about the snow tommorow Just in case.
Your concerns are the same as mine.
But good luck to everyone for snow
Donna
The streamer last February headed down the Thames into London. I'm on the North Kent coast and all that snow was passing over me which gave me a couple of inches before the streamer shifted about a mile Northwards, I spent most of the night watching the radar seeing that all that snow was just a mile North of me.
This setup is different, instead of heading into London its going to be heading down into the South-East. North Kent etc.. obviously looking likely to do well out of this, but as the snow moves Southwards through the evening I think you could see a good 3-4 inches of snow.
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How's this for a ramp:
"Parts of Kent especially could see up-to one foot of snow falling between now and Friday – which is expected to bring widespread severe disruption to transport."
I'd say that was about right.
The snow is expected to stall across much of Kent and Sussex tomorrow night, with strong winds also I wouldn't be surprised to see some drifts measuring a foot.
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Light snow in London, watching BBC News and they went live to London for something and it was snowing
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OK, fingers crossed. I must admit the clouds don't have that orange tinge to them that I always associate with snow clouds. Or am I barking up the wrong tree! Another old wives tale perhaps. Like my mum would always say a day or two before snow that she could smell it in the air - I reckon that was just the cold digging in.
I always associate snow clouds to be grey and misty looking, we have some coming over now actually.
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Published: 6:52AM GMT 16 Dec 2009
Haha, after the big headline, the first line reads
"It is unlikely there will be enough to make a snowman in most places"
Yeah, I've always had trouble making snowmen in 6 inches of snow, its no where near enough.
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Very true, I think it also depends, with the warm front taking longer to head south than expected, how quickly the cold front can play catch up. The FAX's have it almost catching up by 6am tomorrow - i suspect it could catch up and occlude a bit nearer to midnight
Heres hoping
I'm shocked to see the BBC still not showing any snow for East Anglia and the South-East for tomorrow, what are they playing at? The models suggest quite a spell of heavy snow through tomorrow and into tomorrow night
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If it wasnt for the fact it is a warm front i'd have agreed with you
The issue will be that generally once the warm front has passed through we are likely to see it falling as rain/sleet from the clouds....having said that with uppers still looking marginal but perhaps OK you might see sleet rather than rain which would be a bonus
Of course theres always the option that KW suggested yesterday evening where the warm front doesnt quite make it across
SK
True - Although if the GFS got last nights temperatures completely wrong, surely it could be doing the same for this afternoon? I think it'll really be a case of watching the radar and seeing what it falls like when it gets here, I agree that warmer air does look likely to move down with it, although whether it'll be quite as warm as the GFS is suggesting is questionable.
If it does turn more to rain, I think theres a slight chance of it turning wintry again on the back edge.
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Its -6c here which is VERY impressive for the N.Kent coast.
I waited up for hours as that finger of snow moved ever closer, and it fizzled out literally 2 miles away from me, If I had walked down to the beach I would have probably seen it falling out at sea had it been daylight
Nevermind theres always the risk later this afternoon which I'm fairly confident will stay falling as snow across parts of Kent and Sussex, rather than turning back to rain like the BBC are suggesting.
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Exactly what I was thinking. It surely has to fall as snow, though it would be handy if the ppn picked up in intensity when it hits land, might give us an idea of how things will pan out for us in the next few days.
Yeah, cloud seems to be getting a little thicker now. I really want to sleep
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There is a 'finger' of ppn heading right towards you now, should (famous last words) be with you soon. Intrigued to know what it falls as if it does get there.
Yeah I've been watching that for the last 2 hours haha, its getting quite close now although it does seem to be stalling slightly
The Netweather radar says that its snow, although how accurate that is I don't know. Air temperature is -3.2c and Dew Points are at -4c, so its certainly cold enough for it to be falling as snow.
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where are you in north kent?
Steve
Isle of Grain, right on the N Kent coast, I'm not really expecting much in the way of snow tomorrow, I think probably sleet at best considering I'm on the coast
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If you run through tomorrows weather on the MO site
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_weather.html
It shows it staying as snow and not really turning to rain
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Frontal system heading southwards, whilst the colder air is slowly filtering out of the SE and the south Midlands could well see some snow early this morning though amounts probably won't be all that impressive and won't last long before the warm front comes southwards and the precip turns pretty quickly to rain I'd imagine from that point onwards.
Yeah, I think 30-60 minutes of snow will be possible before it turns quickly back to rain, maybe a light dusting over higher ground.
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When I was younger I thought I had invented lampost watching, I was always sitting at the window watching for snowflakes falling in the street lights, and everytime I'd see one I'd run downstairs, out the front door and go and stand under the lampost
I'm not a secret lampost watcher, I often drive my family mad getting up every 5 minutes to look out the window haha
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Blimey,you will only need an inch out there and thats you cut off lol,cor it dont arf get bleak
Haha I know. I fear it could be a few hours before it reaches our shores, and knowing my luck if I go to bed it'll hit here, but if I stay up it'll miss, its my day off tomorrow anyway so it doesn't matter too much.
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Sheerness,isle of Sheppy,i reckon
I'm in the Isle of Grain so I'm keeping a very close eye on these showers, I was going to head off to bed but decided to check the radar before I did, wish I hadn't now, I'm not going to be able to go to bed until I see whether these showers hit me or not, we could have a potential streamer developing here me thinks.
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Those who expect a repeat of Feb should watch this BBC forecast from countryfile (1st Feb) and then watch the N24 forecast in 10 mins.
The Meto / BBC where very confident of widespread heavy snow coming from a trough spreading well inland and boosted by convection (not reliant on). It was never forecast as "Showers". This went out on BBC on the Sun morning and correctly predicted heavy widespread snow starting 24hrs later. It also correctly predicted the other heavy widespread snow events that occoured during the week. There was also warnings out 3 days in advance for accumulations up to 30cm they are giving 5-10cm for this event. I may be proven wrong (and hope I am) but I doubt I'll watch a forecast like that tommorow morning will I?
We're not within 24 hours of the event yet though, as others have said, I suspect they'll start forecasting heavy snow come tomorrow.
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Does BBC News pre-record forecasts this early in the evening now? Disappointing if true.
I think even Sky News is live until 10pm and then Francis will pre-record one for the overnights.
Still, with a notorious mild ramper like Alex Deakin on the late shift, I'm not sure I can be bothered with the BBC forecast tonight.
I thought all BBC forecasts were live. When I cant sleep I often have the news on whilst doing other things and sometimes the forecaster will change.
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Latest BBC forecast seems to suggest it'll fall as snow in the SE for longer, rather than turning to rain within an hour as previously forecasted
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This has been fluctuating quite a bit tonight, can anyone tell me if this is significant?
If you have cloud coming and going, this would explain why temperatures are fluctuating a little. Its currently -0.4c here with a Dew Point of -2.3c.
I'm hoping to see some snow tomorrow on the leading edge before it turns back to rain
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Alex Deakin.
It must be based on the UKMO's 0z and 12z output. The charts for day 3 onwards always change in the evening and again in the following morning. Between say now and 9am tomorrow morning they will use the same charts for Thursday and Friday which shows very little snow on it, especially when compared to the ones used during today.
So I would presume when the charts update on the BBC at 20:00GMT every day it's based on the 12z model, and at 08:00GMT it's based on the 0z model?
What a ridiculous way for them to forecast. Surely they can't base their forecasts on one run and one model? No wonder they always get it wrong
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Well here very close to the North Kent coast in Iwade the temp briefly made it to 1c before heading back down around 3.30ish. Had frost all day in the garden which for this part of the world is a rarity in itself.
All eyes on tomorrow PM. With elevation I think there could be a few suprises and those east of the meridian should see the snow stay as snow. Then heading on into thursday early am and through to sat early am here in Kent we have a cracking shot at some pretty good totals. Usual suspects will do well and I expect N Kent to do rather better than those further west this time round as the wind is looking more of a NE'ly than an E'ly as it was last year, where the Thames streamer set up. I expect the Downs around East Kent to do well ie Dover/Folkstone and then along to Charing, Lenham, Detling and Bluebell Hill. The western Downs will get some but my thoughts are not as much as last year, those further east and north should do better.
If I was to stick my neck out, somewhere around Charing/Detling could hit 15-20cms with low lying areas picking up 5-10cms in favoured spots.
I dont really care what happens after saturday, once the snow is laying and we get some very low minima the cold could well dig in, especially if the rest of the country joins in with lying snow and also the near continent.
Thats my take on it and yes it is Kent biased because I live there!
I agree with everything you've just said. It certainly does look like Eastern Kent will get the best out of this, specially with the heaviest of the snow through Thursday, Thursday night and Friday looks likely to be across the East (I'm on the NE Kent Coast, so this is fantastic for me, with low uppers etc.. I don't think the warmer North sea will have any affect other than allowing those showers to develop)
I'm starting to get very excited with the potential now. Bring it on!!!
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We're now moving into a timeframe where forecasting snow becomes a little easier. Heres a quick outlook of what we can expect over the next few days. (This forecast is for the South-East of England only)
Wednesday
An area of rain, sleet and snow will push down from the North reaching our region sometime through the afternoon. The leading edge of this front is likely to be of sleet or snow specially over higher ground, although we could see snow down to lower levels for a short period of time. Light accumulations are possible specially over higher ground 1-2cm before it turns quickly back to sleet and then rain. As this front clears skies will clear and a frost will begin to develop, with the rain, sleet and melted snow the ground will be wet and with temperatures likely to fall below freezing there could be problems with ice come Thursday morning.
Thursday
A very cold and frosty start to the day, isolated sleet and snow showers across Eastern Kent to start the day, as we head through the day these sleet and snow showers will push further inland and could crop up just about anywhere. We're not expecting too many problems at this stage, light coverings are possible although snow showers fairly light with the heaviest being in the East, and later along the South-Coast specially towards the evening.
Friday
There is still some uncertainly about Thursday night into Friday, although current models suggest we'll see a more organised area of snow moving down from the North across our region. I think many areas will see some snow through Friday with accumulations of 3-5cm across a wide area, with perhaps 10cm being recorded locally, particularly over higher ground. I think the heaviest of the snow will fall in the Early hours of Friday morning and will turn more showery through the later stages of the morning and through the afternoon. But then through the evening there are some suggestions that we'll see another area of heavy snow moving through. The heaviest again being across the East of our region perhaps adding another 3-5cm on top of what we're likely to see during the early hours. Higher ground will be more favoured to see the snow settling, although I think even down to lower levels the snow is likely to settle.
Its hard to say which areas will see the most amount of snow, but after a cold night on Thursday and frozen surfaces, any snow that does fall will settle so just about anywhere at risk from accumulations.
There is still a lot of uncertainly over Fridays snowfall amounts so this will be updated on Thursday. This is how things currently stand. So turning even colder over the next couple of days with many areas being at an increased risk from sleet or snow showers.
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Looking good - I'll post a forecast in a sec :blink:
East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 4
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I think today has proved that the GFS has been downplaying the PPN. It certainly wasn't forecasting the PPN to be as widespread as it was today.