Met4Cast

That same feature is appearing on the UKV now, too. Definitely worth keeping an eye on!

Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday Cooler everywhere by Friday though the far east hanging onto high 20's/possibly 30c

Here's the UKV take on temperatures. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday Cooler on Wednesday largely I suspect due to increased cloud/thundery showers.

I wonder of the 06z GFS has a warm bias, yesterdays 06z was similar. OP was an outlier against it's ensembles though, especially in regards to pro-longing the heat. Seems to have gone from being overly progressive to pretending the Atlantic low doesn't exist! I think Wednesday still a good bet for peak widespread heat, perhaps with the highest temp being recorded on Thursday in the SE with the breakdown occurring Wednesday night through into Thursday. Lots of uncertainty.

Hardly downplaying when you've literally said the same thing I said in the quoting post..

One or two members seemed pretty confident about it..

Mid-high 20's is hardly exceptional, though. Just an average summer "warm" spell. Tuesday looks to be the peak with the highest chance of temperatures getting into the low 30's, perhaps a chance on Wednesday too providing we see slower movement of the cold front bringing fresher air in from the west, south-east has the highest chance of holding onto the heat for a day longer. Certainly none of this "40c" nonsense that was being thrown around last night.

For what it's worth, UKV is going for mid 30's by Tuesday

Possibly the biggest outlier I've ever seen..

Not quite the 40c being touted by some on this forum, then? The ECM is certainly exceptional but it's not like we haven't been here before with this model, it does like it's extremes in recent years. Looking at the ECM mean it certainly seems the Op was one of the warmest if not THE warmest of the pack. I still think 32-34c is likely widely with a localised 35/36c somewhere in the usual spots. If we see a continuation of this evenings ECM in the morning (given it's lack of consistency in recent days) and some support from other models, then we could probably expect to see something exceptionally warm. But as things stand, it's one run and it's an extreme run at that.

850hPa temperatures have little baring on surface temperatures. No GEFS member showed surface heat on par with the ECM run.

Yes, agreed. No real support from other models at the moment for that level of heat and I suspect it'll be an outlier or at least one of the warmest members against it's ensembles. At face value the ECM Op would bring very hot temperatures, probably close to record breaking, I agree. But, looking at all the other data it's certainly a lower probability for now.

You're joking, right? Not. A. Chance. 36/37c possible on the back of the ECM op, but given it seems far more extreme than other models I'm willing to bet it's an outlier against it's ensembles. In any event, it can't really be taken seriously given the inconsistency in the past few runs & little support for that level of heat from other models.

No, it isn't.

Temperatures into the low 30's quite comfortably by Tuesday/Wednesday on the ECM

Is the storm risk/lightning chart active? Despite a storm risk on Thursday it appears to show absolutely nothing

Hi Paul, Will CAPE/LI charts be coming to UKV too? I presume getting MOGREPS onto the site is still out of the question?

God damn this is something I never, ever expected to have access too, fantastic addition Paul!

I can't wait for the diagnosis on what went "wrong" with last nights storm system. Always a learning experience when situations like this fail to do what was predicted across the models

Possible MCS now Though activity seems to be going through a lull at the moment

Yup, clear progress north now! Good indication of high theta-w values finally making their way northwards into the UK since the storm isn't dying. As it encounters strong DLS across the UK we should see fairly rapid expansion of the lightning envelope, excitement is starting to build!

Two storms, one moving NE one taking a more northerly course Game is back on! Fat Thor isn't singing yet

Stop.. stop it.

Right. I've got pro-plus for anybody who's refusing to give up.

We could have watched the entire Lord of the Rings trilogy in the time this storm is taking to cross the channel. Sods law it'll speed up and blast through the second it touches the UK. Definite northwards progress now though.