Met4Cast

Ehhhhh I don't know.. It's very much a radar watching situation and until there's significant movement across the channel it's anyones guess where they'll end up

Very, very slowly lightning activity is edging into the channel now

That one spot over N France has had constant lightning for hours now

Slower evolution of storms moving N likely down to a slower than predicted movement N of the theta-ew plume, likely to move into SE Eng circa 1-2am Storms should begin to re-develop across France (indeed, lightning activity has picked back up again) and drift slowly into the channel over the next hour or two. The first MCS failed but the environment is becoming more and more favourable as time goes on.

The main band is not where the risk is though..

Have faith..

Close, deep layer shear

DLS will steadily increase as the night progresses, the lightning activity will likely flux a lot as it crosses the channel but it should explode back into life again once it reaches the UK. Steady as she goes.. all going to plan so far

People are far too quick to panic on this forum..

In fairness I did say hopefully, so if it does completely vanish now I'm not taking responsibility for jinxing it

Difficult to say, you're a little far east to be hit by the main action but can't rule out storms completely.. it's very much a radar watching situation for you

Should do, it's all rather elevated so should cross the channel without issue, it's not one of those events where everything goes bang over France and dies as it crosses the channel. ..hopefully.

Shame it's got the quality of a potato

To be fair, Essexweather is associated with the Met Office

If I were chasing I'd be heading to bognor, looks a good bet for landfall

As do a majority of other models..

Looking good for the main risk area based on the first preliminary cells, good northwards movement in the last 30 minutes or so with strikes almost every second!

Cells popping off all over the place over northern France now, great signs!

LIFT OFF!

I'm just to the east of "the hatch" though I'd had John Locke on the phone and he's apparently directly on top of it.

That HDR broke my monitor

Probably a little too far east now..

I'm almost tempted to drive down to Brighton..

I wouldn't get hung up on exact PPN placements, it's far too uncertain to look at it in that level of detail

We're probably looking at the best chance of severe thunderstorms across the SE/EA than we've seen for a while. CAPE isn't all that extreme but it's there, thankfully the storms will be developing across N France in a much higher CAPE/LI environment, the CAPE over the SE will only serve to allow storms to continue tracking northwards across the region PWAT is moderately high so some areas have the potential to see A LOT of rainfall in a very short space of time, I think flooding could be a risk tonight more than anything else Fairly steep lapse rates, not significantly strong over the UK but decent, almost supercell territory across the channel DLS is almost off the scale however! This should allow storms to remain organised, MCS very likely, supercell a low risk but a possibility given strong shear levels Moderate risk of severe (MCS) storms moving N from about 11pm-4am bringing frequent lightning (most likely elevated) gusty winds, torrential rain & hail. Small possibility given the shear profile of storms becoming supercellular in nature possibly producing funnel clouds/an isolated weak tornado, though rotational shear looks relatively weak and probably wouldn't be able to maintain a tornado for any real length of time. I've placed the main risk in a general line from Brighton to Norwich, SVR storms most likely in the black outlined line, a broad SLGT is to cover any slight differences in track compared with models given continued uncertainty, discounting any model that goes significantly West i.e Netwx-SR/GFS.