Met4Cast

BANK 12z HIRLAM and ICON

There was Bill, Dave, and Davindra I believe.. probably all the same person but was still rather entertaining!

Are you.. the..dave..Allen..from the...old BBC.. forums...? ...nuff said..?

Low res and way, wayyy too far North..

Well even a first day meteorology student would know that winds coming off a warm ocean = warmer temperatures and winds coming across cold land = colder..

First signs of rotation on the last few radar grabs Could keep the front stronger as it crosses the South-East later on

Yes.. but winds weren't coming in from the North Sea this morning, didn't you say you were a training Meteorologist?

ECM 6z highlighting the streamer potential too

No deep established cold pool, North-East/East winds off of a relatively warm North Sea = higher dew points

Overnight FAX shows an upper front sitting across the region would could aid in shower development. t Coinciding with some minimal-week upper forcing so streamer/shower potential is certainly there, the question is will it be snow?

Perhaps some streamer potential but I'm not seeing anything significant. EURO4 has the decaying front sitting over the SE/Thames area tomorrow would possible convective potential along that boundary though looks rather marginal Perhaps a better chance on Saturday as winds turn more NE and a Wash streamer develops, though again the signal isn't overly strong Dew Points around or slightly above freezing possibly putting stop to that risk away from higher ground

But they don’t because they are derived from a single run of a single model output. In a setup where all models are showing different tracks/timings they’re about as useful as Stevie Wonder looking at the sky

Stop ?? Using ?? The ?? Apps ?? They ?? Are ?? Useless ??

Online based but the mobile site functions largely the same as an app would

I'd say so - Lots of options, lets you "draw" weather fronts on things on top of the radar image too which can come in handy

The huge variation in snowfall accumulations from the high-res models at this late stage is quite frankly laughable The only semi-consistent area is Wales, the rest of Southern England is basically a free for all. We just have to hope the models with the higher accumulations are calling it right, it'd be absolutely gutting to see the front fizzle away before our eyes tomorrow evening! Having EURO4 on side is encouraging though. Just as a side note; WeatherQuest have a discount code "RADAR" on their weather radar, £25 for a year, usually £47.99. Might be worth splashing the cash for tomorrows drama..

Damn, even here in N Kent is right on the Northern edge there. Fairly similar to the ECM which is a slight worry, though EURO4 has upgraded the potential so in essence, we haven't got a scooby do

Re-watching that streamer was painful. It was about 2 miles North of me, got a dusting while London got absolutely dumped on. I was absolutely gutted! Late Nov 2010 made up for it though

ICON shows it but it's about the only model that does. ECM did show it on previous runs but I can't see the latest run, it's not loading for some reason

Indeed - For my own snow risk map I've gone further North than the EURO4 too using a blend of ECM/ARPEGE/HIRLAM

Another shift South and even parts of North-Kent could miss out This *was* a North midlands event a few days ago..

It's certainly an interesting trend and not without support, though the 6z is known for it's progressive nature. It does look like the deep cold over the US will relax somewhat and with models trending towards lifting the PV out of Canada a little (though not completely) this does reduce the pressure downstream somewhat and could finally allow heights to rise to our North-East. Winter is not over!

It's a term that was I believe made up on this forum. It describes an area of low pressure that tracks just right to open up the flood gates to much colder air

6z Looks rather like the 00z EPS majority cluster..

Trigger low moving West through Europe.. here comes the Easterly!