Met4Cast

GFS Day 6 mean isn't exactly awful Still a fair amount of support for high pressure to the N/NE so I suppose in theory there's still a chance of models reverting back to the Easterly, though I'd personally put that at about 20% currently. Not expecting a whole lot of change from the ECM, interested to see what the clusters show later this evening

One positive is that besides a couple of runs the FV3-GFS wasn't really all that interested, worth making a note for future reference when it finally takes over from the current GFS

I pointed this out earlier in the thread. Now the storm is fully developed you'd expect the models to have a fairly decent handling on it's tracking, at least enough to swing the balance one way or another, it's possible 12z data is a little behind the actual track of the storm and the 18z/overnight runs will correct and bring back the Easterly, though I think that's major straw clutching

Please bring back the hunt for cold thread.. it was much friendlier and you could actually have a small bit of banter without getting moaned at constantly. ------ The general NH pattern remains favourable for future attempts at cold, we are in a cold spell currently and temperatures look to remain below average for the forseeable, all that's really happened with the models is they've ditched the lets face it unrealistic historic Easterly that they were showing a couple of days ago in favour of something more realistic. Could be some pretty low minima late next week under high pressure/slack winds. It's only January 19th, plenty of time!

Hahahaha! Well.. there we have it. ICON was right after all. Worth noting this for future reference that UKMO tends to be slower at picking up pattern changes followed by GFS and ECM being first out the gate. It's still cold and there's still going to be snow around but significant cold from the East at least for now looking very unlikely. 2012 called, it wants it's failed Easterly back..

You have to laugh really..

ICON is further East with the US low but further NE with the ridging so swings and roundabouts

Hard to tell but does that storm look a little North-West of where the GFS predicted it?

The GFS snow maps aren't trustworthy even 6hrs out..

That would of course mean the ICON has been consistently rubbish..

Those charts massively over-do the snow. APERGE/ICON far more humbling.. and ICON

Right. Now that I'm home and I've had a proper look over everything it's not as bad as initially thought. ECM clusters show the OP was in the minority cluster which is good news. Cluster 1 isn't great but it's a damn site better than the Op was. Cluster 2 is our nirvana charts before everything went belly up. 35% support for cluster 1, 33% support for cluster 3. With such a large spread in solutions you may as well forget what the ensemble means are showing because they'll be more watered down than a pint of Fosters. The mean remains below 5c for the entire run. EC was clearly on the warmer side of the suite, GFS on the cooler side out in FI. Incredibly finely balanced and could easily swing back towards the charts we were seeing over the last couple of days. BTW. The CMA has arguably been the most consistent out of every single model..

I was referring to the Easterly.. did you read the 1st line of my post & then decide to reply before reading the rest?

There’s nothing positive to post about this mornings runs. Major backtrack in progress, we’ve been 2012’ved. I’d fully expect the UKMO to drop the Easterly on the 12z runs now too. Massive ensemble spread so we *could* see it return but quite frankly that’s looking incredibly unlikely. Cold this week with snow chances for many but the end of the week unlikely to be offering anything significant. Back to looking at day 10+ I suppose

Really? The ECM & it’s entire ensembles flipped twice just a few days ago. The GEFS have been just as eratic in the lead up to this cold period as well. The ENS have been just as inconsistent as the Det runs have been. My thoughts remain unchanged despite the unfavourable ECM/Shift in the EPS. UKMO wasn’t interested & then it was and it’s yet to drop the signal since picking it up. Worth noting the quite frankly huge spread in the EPS post day 4 too As for the GFS.. well, i’d expect if it doesn’t flip on the 6z run we can be a little more confident, but if it does? Well, then is probably the time to actually be concerned. We’ll know this evening either way.

Anyone have verification stats to show which model typically performs better around the Southern tip of Greenland?

Yesterdays 12z cluster saw the OP in the second largest. The two top clusters are incredibly close % wise I’m not saying the ECM wont be right, just being cautious re: massive over reactions given large variation & range of solutions post 96hrs.

Ironically the CMA has been the most consistent out of all the models.. It’s going to be a very tense 6z GFS this morning

We’re never going to hear the end of it from ICON lovers of by pure luck it has managed to call this one

Big three = ECM, UKMO, GFS They’re the top performing models globally. ICON is generally quite poor

The 00z models have seemingly struggled with the US storm which is still causing issues within the model outputs, it’s really not surprising to see such wide variation. Could the ICON/ECM be right? Sure, could the GFS/UKMO be right? Yes. Calling this one way or another isn’t possible right now, so being so reactive to a ECM Det run doesn’t make a whole lot of sense

To be honest the ensembles aren’t going to be any help whatsoever here. I’d expect the spread to be even larger or equally as large as it was last night, with such small local differences being the reason for Easterly or Westerly, I can’t see the ensembles being able to pick out a useful pattern with the Det runs differing so wildly.

It goes wrong at 96hrs. The trough sinking South of the UK has a better disconnect from the system exiting the US which allows ridging further NE thay eventually leads to the Easterly. Not the subtle difference on the tip of Greenland The ECM keeps the two systems “attached” and thus we see less ridging & no Easterly The difference between full blown Easterly & flat Westerly is incredibly small, the fact we haven’t seen far more wobbles in the output is surprising because of this. UKMO/GFS both make it, ECM/ICON doesn’t. Ensembles aren’t really going to be any help whatsoever because their lower resolution will make it even harder to resolve the situation so for that reason ensemble means likely to be fairly poor (reliability wise) until this is resolved. 96hrs.. we have to see resolution very soon, one way or another

Given GFS was showing runs that would give 1947 a run for its money it’s really not a surprise that it’s no longer showing it, it was a cold outlier. GFS/UKMO both good this morning, still cold with Easterly winds. ECM is very poor but continues to be the odd one out in the big three. No point being so reactive, one Det run does not end a cold spell, nothing has really changed. As ever, more runs needed

The GFS might look poorer in the short term but that’s only because it was ridiculously good yesterday that anything more realistic in comparison might look poor. Stella run though, UKMO/GEM both amazing. ICON made a lot of corrections early doors, ECM to rejoin the snow gang this morning?