Met4Cast

ECM much further South and barely even develops Tuesdays low on this run

You'll probably notice the ones being downbeat on here live in the South. Those who are upbeat live in the North where the risk of snow looks good!

Certainly worth keeping an eye on Tuesday night/Wednesday which has the potential to be the snowiest spell of the season so far. EC Det certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities GFS sends the low into France though forms a secondary low just to the SE of the region UKMO similar to the GFS So the ECM on it's own with a fully developed low, however ICON has a similar track but as a shallower feature, this would probably be ideal for ensuring less warm sector and an all snow event Certainly one to watch in the coming days!

Certainly worth keeping an eye on Tuesday night/Wednesday which has the potential to be the snowiest spell of the season so far. EC Det certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities GFS sends the low into France though forms a secondary low just to the SE of the region UKMO similar to the GFS So the ECM on it's own with a fully developed low, however ICON has a similar track but as a shallower feature, this would probably be ideal for ensuring less warm sector and an all snow event Certainly one to watch in the coming days!

This is purely precipitation type, it doesn't show accumulations

ECM has a beautiful widespread snow risk Wednesday/Thursday Highly likely to change given the lead time but it does show the continued snow risks just about anywhere going forward. It might not be a "deep cold spell" with widespread blizzards but it's certainly an interesting time with many areas likely to see snowfall at some point or another

Wouldn't take long for the cold to surge back South, look at the cold pool waiting behind it..

Feel I have an apology to make.  It was actually me that hid and locked the thread. I was annoyed because Danny Dyer kept being posted over and over again and I feel as if this is turning into the Danny Dyer fan forum. It was unprofessional, I could have said nothing but I felt like you all deserved to know the truth! Now, onto hunting some cold! The 18z is rolling, I expect FI will be completely different yet again.

How did you get these charts?

I think we're in a situation where none of the models are going to be particularly useful beyond day 5. There is so much going on within the atmosphere at the moment that subtle changes lead to very big changes down the road, especially for our tiny little island. The ECM is a perfect example, completely different from it's 00z run with no inter-run consistency. If you want to avoid the "YAY GOOD CHARTS" followed by "WINTERS OVER" charts then I'd suggest paying attention to the ensemble means between days 5-10 and ignore pretty much anything beyond day 10 or treat it as a "just for fun but it wont happen" type thing. There's lots to be happy about over the next 7-10 days

GFS..

UKMO/GFS differ quite largely at T120 As said earlier model volatility likely to be on the increase again. GFS showing that with the wild swings in the later output though that's always to be expected to some extent. Nothing has changed all that much in the last few days, winds broadly N/NW with low pressure sliding to the East of the UK. Still looking forwards early Feb for real blocking which is likely just beyond the scope of the models.

Still not seeing anything to convince me of HLB from the models this morning from the EPS. Clusters at day 6 tending to be fairly supportive of the pattern we've become used to, high pressure broadly out West allowing low pressure systems to sink Southwards across the UK Extended clustering while there are some HLB clusters there, aren't screaming for it at the moment The closest to HLB the EPS mean can manage is this, whilst still of course a cold pattern isn't really gunning for deep cold proper The positive is the 8-10 anomalies are broadly in agreement between EC/GFS Going forward good support from the EPS London for temperatures below 5c so surface conditions will certainly be cold, but I'm not seeing a "Beast from the East" style cold spell with ample Northern Blocking at the moment Early February however is looking interesting. MJO phasing becomes more favourable moving into phase 7 and I suspect onto phase 8 beyond that seemingly coinciding with the SSW downwelling into the Troposphere we should start to see some very, very good charts coming out at the end of the runs in the next week or so, though expect model volatility to shoot right back up again when these things come together. Lots to be positive about. Still hunting for that deep snow..

GFS looks very much on it's own regarding Saturdays potential snowfall, no other model is really interested. Given the GFS took up until 12 hours before realising there would be little back edge snow on Monday nights front, I think we may as well just bin the PPN charts from that model

Anyone in Margate? Whats falling? Radar looks like you’re getting buried

The 18z Op had -15c uppers over us, I'm not surprised it's a huge outlier! That's one hell of a cross polar flow on the gfsp, the Strat split finally splitting the Trop Vortex too!

Hey 18z..

Oh boy.. here we go again! That is one damn impressive Easterly!

I think the bigger concern will be ice rather than any snow that falls

A few of the 6z models certainly showing a more pronounced risk of something a little more organised for the South-East this evening/tonight As the low clears to the South-East the PPN wraps around and comes down from the NE skimming EA and crossing the SE corner. It hasn't shown up on previous model runs so very likely to be a nowcast situation. A surprise 1-2cm for a couple of lucky spots?

ICON (I know) has a shallow low pressure feature running Southwards in the North-Sea on Saturday Could see a band of rain/sleet/snow sinking Southwards across the country. We might not be in a period of sustained bitter cold but there certainly isn't going to be a lack of snow possibilities in the next week or two

That cold cluster this weekend has caught my attention..

It's more that they're so low resolution that a few snow flurries looks like a full frontal band of heavy snowfall, not to mention how utterly inaccurate the GFS is when it comes to general PPN, let alone snowfall

I really wish those GFS snow charts were hidden behind a paywall..

I think that's expected at this point - Rinse and repeat type pattern until we see more sustainable height rises, probably sometime early February.