Met4Cast

From subtle signs of surface heights to an almost fully developed Scandinavian high on the 6z GFS.. we're trending in a good direction. The Atlantic crud has been well and truly pushed back, less cold this weekend/early next week though certainly not mild away from the NW. Beyond? Possibility of an Easterly is increasing in my eyes

The point is - We can only go based on what the models are showing us. It looked likely that many areas of this region would see a fairly prolonged period of snowfall after a short period of rain. Unfortunately as Paul explained some areas were under a slither of above freezing dew points thanks to a South-Easterly flow. Models do not always pick up tiny details like that, in the grand scheme of things they're not important but when it comes down to hyper local detail it can make a big difference, as tonight has shown. Rain/Sleet/Snow mix was always on the cards, some areas did well, some areas didn't do so well. I suspect the slowing of the frontal band helped areas further West to see snow because cold air was able to undercut a little earlier as a result. Some areas have seen 2-3cm, some areas have seen a little more, some areas have seen very little or nothing, that's just how these things go.

Wouldn't worry too much about Beeb forecasts they're always a week behind the rest of the world

Still belting it down with snow but struggling to accumulate. Given latest S trend on the models & latest MO guidance as per EssexWeather Tweet above, I think for once, S of the M4 might be favoured. What was looking like a North Midlands event just a few days ago.. One slight concern is that if this thing shifts any further South we might all miss out entirely!

Well.. Re: Thursday

Must be using the male measurement scale..

Heavy snow, 7/10 on the Murr scale. No settling whatsoever however

Don't worry - Some of us South of the Estuary are still seeing nothing but heavy rain too

Rain update: Raining

Well if Steve only has sleet at 500ft then I'm not going to bother looking out the window every 2 minutes at just 97 feet. I'll up it to every 15 minutes and re-access in an hours time

So sleet?

Nothing but rain here in Strood still

Darn.. sorry, I left the snow shield running! I've turned it off, we should start to see things turning to snow more widely now!

My post was a joke..

Can we get a puddle depth analysis across the region please

Raining here in N Kent just incase there are any ducks reading..

The forecast for the past two days "Rain will turn to snow" People on this forum WHY IS IT RAINING YOU SAID IT WOULD SNOW WAHH

Did people really expect it to be all snow right of the bat? Rain > Snow event was always, always looking like the way it was going. Many areas also now starting to report rain is turning to snow.. largely as expected. 8/9pm is when we should see more widespread reports of snow not only to higher ground but to lower levels, too. 1-3cm still widely expected by me, 5cm over higher peaks of the region. Coastal regions? Who knows, take what you can get I suppose..

Oops, yes. Thursday* Sod it

From there it pivots and slides away South-Eastwards

ECM is one hell of an upgrade for us on Tuesday, couldn't track more perfectly with the heaviest stuff slap bang over us!

People really need to stop using the ultra low res GFS PPN charts, they show the PPN far more North than the high resolution charts do.. FYI cropping into the UK from a low res chart doesn't make it hi-res..

Did a quick mockup of possible solutions re: Thursdays system Based on a blend of all models including the GFS ensembles. UKMO/ECM/ blend suggests a more central risk (scenario 1) whilst ICON/ARPEGE suggests a more Southerly central risk (scenario 2) which leaves GFS + GEFS further North as per scenario 3, though we know how the GFS likes to massively over-do Northerly extent.

The fact you're seeing sleety rain already is perhaps a good sign given the less cold air hasn't moved away yet

I'm personally favouring UKMO/GFSP/ECM blend - ICON/APEGE broadly in line too with the Northern extent, only real odd ball is the GFS which continues to send the front way way North of every other model, though we saw it do the same thing consistently with todays front too. Far SE likely to see a rain > snow > rain event as you say, I think East Anglia/North London the sweet spot for our area, Essex/North Kent possibly holding onto the snow though perhaps wetter down to lower ground especially towards the back edge. EDIT: Thought I was in the regional thread, apologies for the IMBY