Met4Cast

This is about the Northern extent for Thursdays snow from the ECM 6z run Rain across the SW turning to snow North and East of say Bristol

I shouldn't but! ECM 06z run from this morning showing Thursdays snow risk

The probability map may not have been based on the UKMO model - ECM was further North re: snow line

We'd want the UKMO to have nailed the track of Thursdays system for the best opportunity for this region (Thurs 6pm and Midnight Friday) ECM a little further North, GFS much further North.

UKMO Model 6pm Thursday Midnight Thursday/Friday Probability of accumulations between Thurs 12pm and Fri 12pm

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I wonder where the confidence is coming from. Some support for the Siberian high to back West but they are beyond impossible to forecast especially at range. Their extended outlook has consistently gone for "cold or very cold" but has kept being pushed back and back, so I'm personally not convinced.

I'll let you know if Strood gets any..

I'm glad I have today off work so I can watch this system move towards us! WQ radar vs MO Doppler radar

ECM isn't terrible for our region on Thursday. East Anglia looking to fair best with those South of the river seeing a rain > snow > rain event

Just having a look through the EPS. The 06z isn't without support with roughly half of the EPS members have something similar with the Siberian high backing Westwards, no full blown Easterly but it's a step in the right direction

Perhaps but it's shown you can have all background signals pointing towards cold, all models and a massive SSW to boot and still get the forecast completely and utterly wrong. My point was that far too much emphasis has been put on the "background signals" this winter with little to show for it. This is meant as no disrespect to the people who study and use that method of forecasting, but it has just as many failures as any other method, it seems

So in essence.. the "background" signals have been fairly useless in predicting any real cold for the UK.. Probably one to remember for next winter when the "background signals" are all screaming High Lat blocks and cold Easterlies. Still, at least we've got this weeks snow risk! The EC46 has shown it can be pretty awful too, week after week it's been consistent in forecasting high latitude blocking that has never actually developed. Weeks 3/4 on that model are utter rubbish!

Then we'd be in reverse zonal and probably seeing major snow coming in from the East..

I think given the huge spread on both the EPS/GEFS It's impossible to call at the moment. Maybe a slight favouring towards "less cold" but I wouldn't want to put money on that. For me at the moment there's still no high latitude blocking/deep cold, so perhaps a continuation of lows sliding SEwards bringing an occasional snow risk, brief less cold blip this weekend.

Really? I seem to remember the NAE becoming the EURO4 too.. in any event, EURO4 is one of the best short range models out there, Met office often using a blend of EURO4/UKV

Forgive the terrible map, it's surprisingly hard to find a map that shows the SE and East Anglia Red zone has highest potential for seeing an all snow event - Elsewhere likely to see rain > snow. South coast likely to see falling snow with intensity/any altitude but rain/sleety/snow mix more likely so lowered accumulating snowfall here. Red zone 3-4cm widely, 6-10cm with any higher ground/heavier bursts. FAX chart shows the front pivoting a little over our region which could give an hour or two of extra snowfall, worth watching!

Is it? ICON HIRLAM GFS Euro 4 (note, doesn't cover the entire duration yet) Nothing has changed really. 2-3cm quite widely, 5-10cm possible over the hills/where heavier bursts develop along the frontal boundary.

So that it brings this region into the "sweet spot". Largest accumulations still look likely to be well North of here

You're probably being effected by temperatures being moderated by the North Sea

Please.. just a little further South..

I'm not convinced the models are right re: Thursdays now. As we know these systems have a tendency to move Southwards as we get closer to the time. A few days ago it was a North Midlands event, today it's a central/South Midlands event with the ICON even bringing London into the risk zone, too. I think the sweet spot will be Wales/South Midlands area, perhaps just N of the M4 corridor, wouldn't take much to bring Southern areas into the mix again though..

Agreed 100% with this. They've consistently flip flopped around, they didn't pick this weekends milder blip up until rather late. The trend is undeniably towards less cold beyond next weekend and on this occasion I think that's probably the way we're heading given the extreme cold pouring into the USA, this will strengthen the jet and probably flatten the pattern somewhat. I suspect the GFS is over-doing it a little with the incredibly zonal pattern, though in any event "deep cold Easterlies" are absolutely not on the cards, whatever model you look at. Could be that this is one of the SSW's that doesn't produce favourably for the UK. Despite the Met Office outlook, they've been pushing the proper cold back and back since the start of January. Fairly strong signal from the EPS to reduce the Euro troughing too.

Wouldn't take a huge shift to make this an all snow event for our region, rather than a rain > snow event. Given the continued uncertainty with exact tracking/intensity I certainly wouldn't rule that out just yet. Fairly confident many will see snow however, it's unlikely they'll be a shift big enough to take the entire thing too far Southwards. So happy I have Tuesday off work and don't start work until Wednesday afternoon. BRING ON THE SNOW!

ICON/UKMO/GFSP go for more of a channel low/North France feature that would bring snowfall to many Southern parts on Tuesday. ECM further South taking it more through Central France which would probably be a little too far South