Met4Cast

Better GFS with the Northerly coming in much faster compared with the 6z Riding up to Greenland forcing the second low back NW and into the Greenland shredder

Meto update STILL going for North-Easterlies later in the week.. EDIT: it hasn't actually updated yet, false alarm

06z GFS sums up my thoughts going forward perfectly. Low pressure systems tracking NW>SE across the UK into Europe with repeated attempts for high pressure to amplify Northwards. I.E remaining below average with snow risks. Eventually (?) we're likely to see heights become more sustained to our North, more of a matter of when rather than if

Well.. Extended cluster, just one

I quite like this chart because it shows the Det charts in ensemble graph form Agreement starts to diverge at day 2.

The clusters or the weeklies? Not sure if the weeklies show on the Icelandic site but I could be wrong

I wish my girlfriend had the same attitude

I agree - Interestingly despite models fairly keen to relax the Euro trough it does look like any relaxation will be temporary, extended EPS strengthen the signal if anything

I'll post this chart to hopefully calm some nerves EPS continuing to highlight below average temperatures right out into the extended - Despite a "less cold" blip possibly later next week now looking likely the overall theme and consensus across the models is for temperatures to remain below average with a trough across Europe. The first Easterly may have failed (may not have yet, the spread is so huge there's a possibility it'll come back, ICON seems to think so) but there is already another sinking trough followed by Atlantic height rises showing on the models for days 7-11.

Depends.. EC46 for the 22nd vs GFS forecast for the 22nd Broadly the lows/highs are where the EC46 predicted. EC46 doesn't really show any meaningful HLB until the 1st week fo February

It's all to do with climatology. The default weather pattern for our part of the world is Westerly winds and low pressure systems coming in on the jet stream, models handle this well because it's the "norm" and tends to be quite predictable. Low pressure moving West, work out it's speed and where the future forcings on the system will be and it's fairly easy to "guess" accurately where that system might be in 1,2,3,4 days time. Now take that same system but instead of sending it Westwards like normal, stick a block of high pressure in front of it, not only that but also split the energy from the low into different directions. Now the model needs to handle not only the track of the system, but the systems speed varying, the energy from the system going in 2 directions as it splits, the strength of the high, where will wind direction be at any given moment across the UK? Models can generally handle this quite well when looking at the NH pattern as a hole, but given the UK is a tiny island in one corner of the hemisphere it doesn't take a huge change in direction/speed/split energy to have a big effect on the weather we see here on the ground. Now throw into the mix the MJO, downwelling from the SSW, El Nino etc and it gets infinitely more complicated. Plus the models probably do struggle with zonal at times but how many of us can honestly say we micro analyse the models when zonal is on the cards the same way we do when cold and snow are on the cards?

Yesterdays cluster show the Easterly solution now in the minority with more support for the flatter pattern, though it's hardly a real majority with many possibilities still on the table. A slight shift towards a colder pattern from this mornings ICON, ECM too to some extent before it sends a little too much energy East. I think we can forget about that Easterly now it's probably not going to happen, onto looking for the next source of cold. Will be interesting to see where the Met stand in todays update

Well.. Goodluck to anybody attempting to make a forecast for later next week. This is getting a little ridiculous now

The low sat to the E of Scotland really doesn’t make any sense while energy around it disrupts SEwards it doesn’t move at all There’s no reason for it to just.. stop like that, I don’t think I’ve ever seen that on a model run before

I think we can bin the GFS 18z already. The low to the East of Scotland is literally just sitting there frame after frame not moving whatsoever.. But otherwise, subtle improvements

It's subtle but the shift Northwards in the low over Italy sharpens the high and gets an Easterly flow across the UK Much better, not fully reverting back but it's a step..

Better.. At least winds are vaguely Easterly anyway

Ignoring the mid-long term because quite franky, what. ECM for Tuesday showing accumulations generally restricted to higher ground in the North/West

ECM an outlier as early as day 3..

Jokes aside I agree - Next weeks Easterly might not happen but the models are not suggesting anything remotely mild, GEFS remains cold throughout with the broad pattern remaining the same. Signal remains for a Euro trough and as long as that remains there's no chance of anything mild developing.

Lol, even if it did snow some people on here would be too busy having a willy measuring contest instead of measuring how much snow has fallen. Looking forward to seeing the ECM clusters this evening, I'm fully expecting there to be a huge amount of spread if the GEFS are anything to go by, still some time for things to switch back more favourably given the huge range of options. Models not really leaning heavily towards any particular outcome despite todays Op runs, the ensembles haven't really switched in favour one way or another, if anything they've just become even more uncertain.

Worth noting that the Met do indeed rate the JMA as a model

What I find interesting is how the lower resolution models are continuing to go for the Easterly solution while all the high resolution models have ditched it Is this a case of the lower resolution not being able to pick out the subtle changes in the USA lows track and ultimately has less energy coming into the Atlantic allowing the high to amplify and develop into an Easterly, or is this a case of the High Resolution models "over forecasting" the low and over reacting resulting in a much flatter pattern? ECM is much improved out to T120 and then just goes off on a very weird, probably unrealistic evolution.

Has it? It hasn't actually happened yet..

144 is a really weird looking chart and I can't quite work out why Odd evolution between 120 and 144