Met4Cast

I was being sarcastic.

Maybe the GFS is struggling again because of the government shutdown..

GFS just about makes it We really don't want to see the trend for the storm being further East to continue, GFS 12z is about the Eastern limit before the pattern collapses

Here's why. The storm over the USA is further East and moves into the Atlantic faster, as per ICON and GFS Para which is why they both end up being flat 6z 12z The entire amplification is dependant on that storm NOT coming East so fast. UKMO has it further East and as a result the high doesn't amplify enough to "topple" towards Scandinavia which then forces low heights South into Europe and thus, Easterly. Instead, the high topples to the W/SW of the UK and we see Westerlies. GFS is better than the UKMO but it's not as good as this mornings. Having said that, with the GFS performance of late it wouldn't be a huge surprise if it takes a month to catch onto the change in pattern. So in short, next week remains ?????

The storm is further East on the GFS too.. Victory and a half for the GFSP if it turns out to have beaten the entire GEFS/EPS!

Oh dear.. Not the greatest of UKMO charts it has to be said.

There's a reason nobody ever posts the APERGE global charts..

The problem with the ICON is that it's moving the USA storm Eastwards much faster than the other models - Worth noting NOAA went with an ECM EPS/GFS Blend beyond 36hrs so it would seem the ICON is being too progressive with that storm. It's slightly better on the 12z but not good enough and it sends energy East preventing the high from pushing Northwards in the Atlantic and this has a knock on effect to the UK weather. The good news is that the ICON seems to be largely on it's own at the moment regarding the storm track.

GFS Para solution has just 11% support from the EPS so I think we can be fairly confident it’s wrong, though a backtrack would be nice on the 12z

GFS - Incredible UKMO - Great ECM - Incredible I suspect everyone will be having a good morning this morning..

Looks like there is *some* support for height rises to the North for day 6 though it's rather blended out, probably another night of many clusters with no real majority for a particular signal either way

EPS out to 126 seems to support the op in terms of the trough disruption at least.. lets hope it supports the height rises beyond that, too!

It's not a million miles away, just lacks the amplification because the system coming out of the USA faster prevents it, certainly a very real possibility of it transpiring that way, and given the GFS performance of late it's hard to get all the excited. One positive is that the GFS is supported somewhat by the 00z EPS, will be interesting to see which way EC Det swings this evening.

Well.. that's quite a remarkable turn around on the GEFS, the Op seems to have full support of it's ensemble suite at least

GFS 12z and EC Cluster 1 Very similar, could be the start of model consensus, at least with regards to the trough disruption.. little point worrying beyond that point because what happens after depends on this first step. I presume the "GFS must be missing data because of the government shutdown" is no longer being viewed as a potential issue now the GFS is showing what people want?

Step 1: Disrupt the trough Southwards through the UK and into Europe. GFS and UKMO both manage this and are pretty much in agreement and long last. Step 2 is where the transition from cold Northerly to sustained cold comes in. If high pressure can extend far enough North and East as per GFS 12z, we get this All dependent on the Vortex over Canada. We're not even close to nailing step 2 down, but step 1 is within touching distance..

Cold zonal largely remains going forward. EPS/GEFS both agree on continued European troughing broadly to the South of the UK so temperatures remaining below average. Beyond that???? Who knows. The models and their ensemble suites have been utterly useless, the GFS Op runs have been about as consistent as cement. Ironically it's the GEFS that is more amplified across Greenland in the extended with the EPS largely not interested. I think we should pretend anything beyond 96hrs doesn't exist, because it may as well not

I was simply pointing out that the EC wasn’t supportive of the GFS either since you keep banging on about the GFS not supporting the EC. FYI the EC Det was a cold outlier last night, so not entirely surprising to see it swing the other way this morning. None of the models know whats happening, they’re all pretty useless beyond 144hrs at the moment.

And the GFS has 0% support from the EC

People really shouldn’t be worrying whether the 240hr ECM chart shows snow for their specific location given we still don’t know where/if snow will fall this coming weekend..

Wonder where Crewe has gone.. ECM is as good as it gets!

Worth noting the 25% was specifically about the single EC Det run, so 25% is actually rather high given that. GFS finally FINALLY disrupting the low like the other models have been doing for days now and it's sharpened up on sinking the trough through the UK into Europe. You wouldn't believe this model was top 3 in the world given the last week of absolute shamble performances. Outer reaches of GFS 12z similar to this mornings extended EPS mean which is interesting, the Scandi height bit in-between that though is a strange evolution.

GEFS definitely a step towards the Euros on the 6z with blocking targeting Greenland Now if we could see some consistency in the modelling for a couple of runs we might get a clearer picture..

Ah of course - By "severe cold" I was meaning BFTE type prolonged cold, the EPS certainly do have some deeper cold options within them though remain a lower probability, at least for now. Certainly improving. GFS Para picking up on the sinking trough into Europe now, GFS still lagging behind..

A huge array of solutions on the EC Clusters but they do show some support for blocking to the North or North-West of the UK. Certainly very little support for "mild" weather. Huge uncertainty, but most roads lead to cold.. though not "severe" cold just yet