Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Eugene

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,465

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Eugene

    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, al78 said:

    Surely this depends on where you live? Summer nights in SE England, especially London can be much more unpleasant for sleeping during warm/hot spells than NW England, so I think it is a case of not judging someone until you have walked a mile in their shoes.

    Exactly and these people are the first to complain when its 17C in Summer saying how cold it is. They need to toughen up.

    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Tomorrow my weather app is just 17C here while 29C in London. I've never seen such a big contrast in such a short distance.  BBC news will probably run the usual "hottest day of the year" stories with pictures of kids playing in water fountains and adults eating ice cream while those outside London wonder what all the fuss is about 

    Think you mean those in northern britain will wonder what all the fuss is, midlands forecasted to be 23C/24C tomorrow and getting warmer there by mid week.

    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eugene

    10 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

    We’ve only had a handful of days reaching 20c here so far, all within the past week or so, and I see we’re going back to mid teens and showers.

    Not impressed.

    What do you expect living in dreary Glasgow, bit like someone moaning in the english riviera about nights not having severe frosts in winter.

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    The whole country still under the -10c 850s. That's quite impressive for April.

    GFSOPEU06_72_2.thumb.png.fbe1b49d01dde9e7bd7bdc89aa712ce1.png

    Exceptionally cold dew points for midday Monday and Tuesday too even if it was in Winter. 

    Chance of another northerly next Sunday too, all in all a very nice chilly week ahead apart from milder cloudy damp conditions late Friday into Saturday which hopefully will be pushed to our south and we stay colder and dry. 

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS // 18z also showing that high pressure ridge from the Azores that might just reload, as I said earlier it is a while before summer, but a pattern that is nice to have T306:

    9248059A-B968-45FF-8E59-8C4AC959F648.thumb.png.31bc345848e81db974cf70495c0420d6.png

    Waaay out of the reliable of course, but interesting to see...

    Things must be bad if you're using GFS(P) for almost two weeks away. Nothing interesting about that chart either. 

    Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Beano said:

    Big signal for a warm up by next Friday for majority of uk, a nice dry, mild high pressure after a winter locked up..sounds pretty nice!

    ens_image.png

    Very deceiving post, as many have said it would be cold at the surface still, hardly a big signal for a warm up, also UKMO 00Z shows any confidence of a breakdown to the cold weather from next friday is very low.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - into the last third of January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    17 hours ago, Catacol said:

    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement parts of the country have seen far more snow than in any recent winter. Scotland has seen plenty as have parts of Northern England. The displacement has produced a consistent positive pressure anomaly to our NW but it has been positioned too far west to give us the blocking we need to get low pressure disrupting sufficiently on a NW/SE axis....but even given that we have seen plenty of cold. 3 milder days perhaps in the last 3 weeks? The southern half misses out and the call of fail goes up. More a question of imprecise commentary?

    Going forward we look to see a combination of ongoing strat weakness and trop driving from the pacific to encourage anything but a flat pattern once again. The vortex is weak now, and even though set to move back towards a more central position there is plenty of scope here for the trop to take control given this kind of context at the start of Feb.

    image.thumb.png.5e32c67f783a2f629c5df54694cddfd1.png

    We are finally seeing some coherence to the MJO, and despite the need to take these plots with a degree of healthy scepticism the signal is clearly emerging into the western pacific and this favours height rises in the North Atlantic. 

    image.thumb.png.16a614337665c4475f6be022b4bb40eb.png

    I have begun to pay much less attention to NWP output because I think cold and snow opportunities of which there have been several recently are locked in for a while longer, and the macro pattern is broadly maintaining that interest. Once the macro pattern hits a sustained shape as it is now then the ups and downs of individual runs cease to become quite so intriguing. I would guess that late season wavelengths combined with an emerging MJO phase 7 might trend towards heights closer to Scandy, and perhaps a February on the horizon much closer to a "traditional" UK winter in the old style where snow in February was often more likely than in January. ECM tonight is very good for such battleground events were it to come to pass like this.

    image.thumb.png.23c228c30dcdf80c362ff11528c74e9e.png

    It's been a fascinating winter and a great winter for some. 22nd January marks 1/3 of winter gone if one uses the solstice markers, a bit more than that if you follow temperature trends. Just over half way if you stick to the Met definition of 1st December which personally I have never really understood, but it matters not. The point is there is plenty of winter left, and while the first half and the impact of a substantial SSW has not brought blizzards to the south those in the north have seen the cold impacts up close. 

    Remember this glosea run from December?

    image.thumb.png.4e6e16b89fa4db4a8170bc0089f19160.png

    image.thumb.png.482167cf1129c481746d511a8f37a5fe.png

     

    3 month smoothed average - chocolate teapot. But where is the greatest fail this season? Maybe you might like to comment more accurately on that.

     

     

     

    Great post, it's been a pretty decent winter here in lowland midlands. Thanks for all your input Catacol, i really appreciate it.

    Doesn't look much of a warm up for midlands northwards next week and turning colder the following week. Think later on in Feb into most of March we'll see the coldest conditions of the winter. 

     

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
×
×
  • Create New...