Eugene
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Posts posted by Eugene
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Always humorous when people bring out the minor runs to support their bias instead of the big three, looks pretty much bog standard for next 10 days at least. Nothing that bad or that good.
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Very cool spell ahead from today until next Tuesday at least, a 6 day period with temps in Central England 15C or lower, potentially very cold on Saturday with 10C/11C Max's possible. So much for the one day of 15C some were very confident of just a few days ago.
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48 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
To be fair even the most extreme output shown a few days ago would have still been in low double figures. It never looked likely. Maybe a chance of something wintry in Scotland, which is not that notable in early May.
Central areas will be struggling to double figures by Monday, very cold for mid May with sunny periods. Next week looks lovely and fresh.
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A really nice GFS 12Z with extensive HP to our northwest and cold Arctic northeasterly winds. Will discourage people crowding parks like this weekend and keep people indoors reducing spread.
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Nice outlook for those who want to flout the lockdown rules, we should all be praying for a wet 6 months ahead to put people off crowding parks and beauty spots spreading the virus, its time to think of others esp the vulnerable instead of IYBY.
I'll be staying in all week to help the NHS.
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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
The GEFS mean now has the -10c line into EA at 192 > thats the lowest its been.
Very nice Steve, some real deep cold pools over the Arctic to tap into there, could be a very cold second half to March/early April coming up.
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1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:
Wind and rain. I like it
It's not actually that mild either - cool wind and rain, which is even better!
I so agree, this winter hasn't seen any prolonged exceptionally mild periods thank god, been quite interesting actually, look forward to next winter. Anything beats Summer boredom.
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Not looking as mild as the mildies were hoping for. Not sure why they thought record breaking temps were in order this weekend with an anticyclonic centred to our northeast keeping central, southern, eastern areas pretty cool esp at night. With days as short as they are you need an anticyclone centred over France for near record breaking widespread temps.
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Well it's felt very autumnal since Sept 1st, where's all this Summer warmth, felt really chilly past few days.
September is not a Summer month, the weather this week and next proves that, the first cool weather since May.
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Tomorrow the fresh air finally arrives. This summer has been one horrible warm, muggy cloudfest with not much difference in day and night temps. I absolutely can not wait for Autumn to see some interesting variations at last and hopefully more sun. The best 9 months are to come, YAY!!!!
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Looking like we could be pulling in some fresher air from next weekend, today has been horribly humid. Can't wait for fresher air. Nice to see a Greenland high setup, the further into August we go into September we should see PM air become more prevalent to our northwest. Hopefully tapping into some of it come September, September can see the first proper cool days.
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Posters in Model Discussion living on a different planet to the rest of us it seems, pretty bog standard Summer so far with one widespread hot day, Been overcast all week here, turning unsettled later this week. Feels like true Summer is slowly ebbing away, mid August onwards 30C+ is very hard to achieve away from the SE. Time is ticking.
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Where's the cool weather, 17C here today, hardly cool. Near average for early June. Not much rain either. Dewpoints pretty decent too and feeling rather humid.
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26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
There were indications from yesterday's models that we may exchange the northerly then trough dominated pattern to something warmer and ridge related or indeed southerly related towards next weekend and into middle of the month. Today less than convinced this will happen, yes indications again a ridge will travel up from the south, but quickly through the UK and heading north, hence an easterly flow off a not particularly warm continent and N Sea could occur and with cut off low to the SE, chance heights may migrate NW again and we come under the auspices of further northerly episode. We may be about to see a very northerly/easterly May.
Nice to see an unbiased look at the upcoming possibilities. Great post.
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On 11/04/2019 at 12:34, karyo said:
It depends on the season, in the summertime I despise high pressure as it brings heat and boredom for me. It is then that I like low pressure from the Atlantic to bring some active weather.
By wintertime though, I enjoy the clear frosty weather that a high can bring and hate the mobile west/southwesterly which just brings mild and frost free weather.
I despise high pressure mid April onwards as it brings very boring weather like we have currently, roll on unsettled weather wed onwards with some convection hopefully, shows you how warm our climate has become though when 15C will feel cool in just bleedin' April.
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:
No warmth from the UKMO ( with maybe Ireland as an exception )
Lucky to get North of 8c over England & 4-6c in the ESE
ICON sees another pulse of deep cold hitting Northern Scandi at day 8 - about 6c colder than the last wave... (-20c isotherm)
Yes and no warmth on the GEM 12Z either with a chilly easterly feed developing, think models are now moving towards this theme, orientation of the strong scandy high looks favourable for a chilly easterly developing, rarely warm this early in the Spring.
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51 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:
Weather is what weather does , there's always winter 19 /20 to look forward to
It'll be the same hideousness i'm afraid.
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15 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:
So we have no northern blocking, a strong PV over Greenland, a strong Atlantic High hopefully being nice, so we can feed off the cold air scraps sent in a SE direction. Mixing in and out of milder air could be an issue? Also with -5 air above, 2m temps will be what 3-5 degrees? This sort of pattern seems the complete opposite of what we were hoping for post SSW.
Great post, 3C to 5C max's for most is what we're looking at, just below average and nothing out of the ordinary for mid to late January. It will mainly be sunny and dry for most.
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Looks to be a very mild first half to winter, yes the second half will be cooler but that's not exactly difficult with how mild it's been. Of course strength of sun comes into play as we enter Feb so it won't feel that cold anyway unless it's cloudy or we pull in really cold continental uppers which is looking unlikely.
To me the peak period for winter is late November to late January when the days are at their shortest even then it's felt very pleasant in calm sunny conditions on the rare days it's been sunny. Been out in the countryside alot past month and the amount of insects i've seen is incredible. All enjoying the very mild conditions, you really notice how warm it's been this winter when being active.
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On 30/12/2018 at 01:23, Frost HoIIow said:
Unfortunately that is true - In my lifetime there has been more mild than cold Winters in the UK. We do not have a Continental climate. Whilst years ago we did have slightly more frequent colder spells that was it..... slightly. We had the odd big one 46/47...62/63 etc. You could easily add 2009/2010 into that as well as Nov/Dec 2010. But severe spells of Winter weather have always been hard to come by here in the UK - milder has dominated ....you can blame that big body of water to our west. But when we do get proper cold and snow it's all the more satisfying. We will get another big freeze.
Well our Summers are definitely turning more continental like, when was the last truly cool UK summer? Think you have to go back all the way to 1987. The 80's were alot cooler than now and Winters alot more interesting. Even getting cold setups doesn't guarantee you proper cold anymore, the cold pooling just isn't as deep as it once was. All our seasons are getting warmer than normal now, we haven't had a cold Spring in along time either. This winter has been absolutely dreadful, seen many people out in t-shirts it's been that mild. At least things are cooling down now with colder air entering our slug high, only to what you should be getting though, nothing out of the ordinary and the form horse is a slow sinker.
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Charts are bleedin' awful but oh so familiar. Once this euro slug is out the way it's back to square one, a flat Atlantic dominated pattern.
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Happy with how my winter forecast is going, zonal December with limited cold. January should see the storms really revving up with a very active Atlantic. As ever we'll be looking for backend of winter cold in February. All in all very disappointing winter ahead for cold weather fans, next summer will be another scorcher as high pressure rules the roost again. Tbh the UK weather is very predictable and easy to predict now.
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LOL, Oh so typical just as we're approaching the coldest months the atlantic decides to awaken with high pressure over Scandinavia getting easily pushed back eastwards but never far enough to allow proper cold air from the northwest after 6 months of HP dominance. Going to be a long frustrating winter i feel. Of course from late April continental HP will have no trouble dominating, very grim climate ahead of us for next 50 years unless you like warm humid weather dominance.
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Autumn is just a continuation of Summer nowadays, i expect a very Summer like Sept/Oct before a near average November which will feel cold due to the exceptionally hot May to Sept period.
I expect a wet winter ahead with the atlantic gearing up, not overly mild but slightly above average with only transient cold spells.
Next Summer will alot cooler than this one but that's to be expected after having the joint hottest Summer on record, still will feel warm and humid.
Model output discussion - into July 2020
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes just 36 hours of hot uppers from 12Z Thu to 00Z Saturday for most, very brief really then back to near normal from Saturday.