[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

 

The main focus point is...as its sweeps into the southwest...then tracks north-eastwards...as it pivots..so 2 it expands..as it reverts on the former trak..thus becomes patchy in nature...

That though after dumping some decent amounts in selected locations...

Edit- and has signs of pep tmoz afternoon, along far southern counties../including factions of the south west

 

Yes, I think Hampshire, Essex and Sussex could do particularly well out of this, several inches of cover perhaps. I'm expecting maybe a couple of inches IMBY. The next 36 hours or so is an exciting watch period, as may well be Sunday.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM continues the trend to something a bit less cold as we go through next week. It'll probably be mid week before the milder air gets to all parts

 

If at all. But yes, sadly for the cold hunters who seem to have had to hunt proper cold all winter long, next week will likely see a return to westerlies and some rain around, complete with near to average temperatures. Ho hum but at least travel disruption will be much less of an issue.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

You must be joking right? A cold winter easterly may always be in the pipeline if we get a decent Scandi high, but putting hopes in brexit? Now that really is chasing unicorns... saying its good is like saying we will get an easterly in 12 hours time when all the models show zonal SW'lies.

Anyhow the 06z swingometers are mixed but represent an improvement on the 00z set (highlighting why runs in isolation shouldn't be focused on but instead more persistent patterns).

It's still highly uncertain how early next week will pan out, at this early stage I would say an anticyclonic pattern is more likely with the high to our far NE starting to make its presence felt. This is hugely uncertain though as highlighted by the swingometers. I wouldn't mind another slider with P2  .

For later on the picture is also highly uncertain, just about anything could happen with a large variety of options on the 06z GFS ens. P5 gets a great cold spell going later on.

The global temperature anomalies tell quite a story too, almost everywhere at 60N below average! If only that serious Eurasian cold could move west heh heh...

Overall I'd say any chance of a cold spell around 48:52, there certainly isn't a will of the weather gods for a mild spell at the moment. Lets hope we get a strong and stable high pressure to our north!

3

Talking of swingometers. I voted to remain and I'm now happy we're leaving. The Air Temperature earlier maxed out at 6c when Brexit talk was getting heated in parliament, it's now 1.9c and falling quickly, as is the snow. The only thing in life is that there are no certainties except death and taxes. As to the longer-term, 48:52 is about right. 1.7c now, told you the Temperature is plummeting rather quickly. Back to the here and now and those important votes, will it snow or will it rain Thursday IMBY?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Atlantic ingression seems to falter quite early on 06z GFS, early next week, with trough disruption Mon-Tues, and cold -5C and below air hanging around, so when Atlantic fronts come in, they could bring some snow, chiefly northern areas as per GFS.

Some very cold air lurking to the NE, so if we do get pressure to rise to the N and NE, which it increasingly looks like with time, as the Atlantic troughing wanes, then it could be fun and games 2nd half of Feb maybe. 

Your posts are restoring my faith big-time, keep it up. The good thing is you know what you're talking about as well, as netweather's prominent chief forecaster. My assumptions about next week were based around the Beeb 10-dayers and a few recent model runs but...... could the cold hang on instead of being pushed aside, I guess with full snow cover around in places, it may well win the day. Conversely, there are other respectable types on here calling for a very special February, so I'm equally mindful of that. Fascinating days ahead either way.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Nobody seems to want to talk about the mid / longer range but both the Ecm / Gefs mean indicate a return to normal / mildish from next week with the azores high ridging in close to the southwest and low heights to the northwest with a zonal pattern for the uk.

Some do and did. And sadly, I think it may well be the form horse too, although colder interludes with wintry showers behind the rain bands are undoubtedly possible. Before then, much cold to talk about, if no Beasts From The East there's always Brexit to fall back on.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

27 minutes ago, P-M said:

Imagine him at the COBR meeting for extreme weather "well the thing is prime minister there's the possibility of some very concerning weather from latest weather models.  I'll let you know just after the event on what I'm thinking."    

1

Isn't that how politicians work, anyhow?  Of course, some might also want to change votes on something already voted on two years ago as well. I want snow, no, I voted for rain, can I have sleet then?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

51 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The GFS 12z ensembles showing some big spikes for tomorrow evenings precipitation with the op one of the top enders. Hope most of it is snow!

It certainly is looking like it is warming up, well not cold as per this week, by about the 4th February, which seems to be a consistent signal for now. Before then, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps another day or two bringing us all a wintry mix. Something for everyone in the next ten days then?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm not convinced the models are right re: Thursdays now. As we know these systems have a tendency to move Southwards as we get closer to the time. A few days ago it was a North Midlands event, today it's a central/South Midlands event with the ICON even bringing London into the risk zone, too. 

I think the sweet spot will be Wales/South Midlands area, perhaps just N of the M4 corridor, wouldn't take much to bring Southern areas into the mix again though..

This model ICON everyone quotes, what did it used to be known as? Sounds new to me?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just like big events before - A persistent signal from the ICON

remember its not where the PPN gets to its where the main belt of heavy PPN falls

Wales looks the worst effected again...

My inkling is as the front drags its feet into Wednesday morning, the SE, say Essex and Kent would be highly favoured for a decent covering too.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

just noted that despite decent precipitation totals for my location Tuesday afternoon/evening, the ec has me down for rain and sleet. no one should be taking anything for granted on this .....prepare yourself for the worst and hope for the best! 

1

Sounds like typical Brexit type weather Tuesday or is that just a coincidence, aye Mrs May? As for those saying these charts aren't worth getting excited about, down South, these events sure are, and the marginal ones bring the biggest surprises and dumps of snow IMHO. I need the dream charts to be showing it snowing tomorrow as well, before caution can be thrown to the wind, as well I reckon.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

There are several lows that I have seen modelled to affect us over the coming week to 10 days - for sake of clarity, can we start naming them?! (or at least post a chart and indicate which one is being talked about)

Ok. We have the following named lows, sadly no highs until the Euro Lack of heights is agreed.

1. Brexit Plan A low
2. Brexit Plan B low
3. Polar Maritime No deal low
4. Tropical Maritime leavers deal low
5. Polar Maritime slowly filling crash out low

 

Hope that covers things, some of these are in fact in development despite modelling concerns but all will be resolved by next Tuesday when Shannon Entrophy (a true remoaner) has left the room.

Best Wishes

GLTTW

 

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

People dismissing this as snow showers only settling over hills. 

I’ll be stunned if that is the case. I have seen snow in far worse parameters, and my elevation is only 146 m. Hardly up in the hills!

All parameters look good for showers to be of snow away from very low lying areas, and troughs in the flow will pepp up the shower distribution.

 

1

Indeed. The Beeb showed snow showers by way of their symbols post-front too and also mentioned snow chances on Wednesday as well.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

35 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I keep reading since December we missed the first bite of the Cherry, I'm sure we've missed about 10 bites of that cherry.. I'm surprised theres any of that cherry left..

The thing is, too few or too many cherries don't make Beasts From The East an every year event or even five to ten-year. One should look at the past in part when predicting the future and t+10080 minute charts *(yes, that really is only seven days) and beyond predicting Snowmageddon don't really do it for me, they never have! WIth my feet firmly on the ground, I learn to enjoy the reliable and accept it may well be correct but beyond this, I order truckloads of salt when viewing such charts.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I am posting pictures of a mysterious white substance that covers the landscape -- it is possible that you may encounter this before March. 

I think that Roger knows a thing or two, so I say yes, and probably when we least expect it. I'll be back when the Easterly prospects get reinstated once again, which means tomorrow. NWP output upgrades next week, methinks.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I don't. 

I've been here plenty of times when the charts have been looking great. I was actually in here earlier to say how good the 0z GFS looked, before everything else went wrong. 

Maybe if you notice me when it goes wrong, I'm good at forecasting the fails??? 

FYI, I'm a massive coldie. I get no joy at all from seeing things go wrong! 

1

Agreed but things haven't actually gone wrong until said timeframes have passed. @CreweCold at which timeframe is our cold spell going down the pan, just curious as I often trust your judgement but equally will refuse to throw in the towel until next week anyhow. A cold ole week next week and with snow around then who knows? 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Panic over for now, the 12z EC has clean separation of the Euro trough from upper westerlies near Greenland after early-mid week disruption and BOOM!

ECMWF high res gets 10/10, GFS op 6/10, UKMO 4/10 from me.

 

Nick F a boom-booming, wow! I've clearly got some reading up to do, but we coldies seem happy enough. Should you get the time, I'd love a one-off blog post for us all to digest? If you're on the boom uptake, must be good!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

On 12/01/2019 at 19:41, gottolovethisweather said:

I believe an Easterly is on the cards myself, and next week's mid to long-range outputs will regularly suggest such options, as per my post from earlier. My advice to all newbies and those learning the meteorology game is to watch the ensembles spreads and the snow symbols ever so carefully and look for steady rises in snow chance percentages.

I've been a tad too busy to catch up with this thread but will look now, but is my option above still on the cards. Likewise, I need to hear a BBC long-ranger for once, with immediate wintry prospects a bit meh, surely next week into the end of January will deliver snowy scenes?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

20 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Those craving an easterly are perhaps missing the point of how epic a set up like this can be and what it can 

potentially deliver. 

This type of setup with marginal polar maritime incursions can deliver round after round of very snowy conditions instead of a one shot Atlantic battle with entrenched cold. We could be talking feet of snow over almost a month, however possible rain events will be interspersed with a following snowy reload.

I personally would rather roll the dice and have a history book set of events than play safe and rely on lake effect snow from an easterly. We’ve had that, it’s nice, but it’s not epic.

 

This could be.

I believe an Easterly is on the cards myself, and next week's mid to long-range outputs will regularly suggest such options, as per my post from earlier. My advice to all newbies and those learning the meteorology game is to watch the ensembles spreads and the snow symbols ever so carefully and look for steady rises in snow chance percentages.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm..

Gain and gather!..

Feed via momentum-and bully'ing on the pv-(as a whole)..

The cracking thing is...

That we cannot now miss a spell..

Not snap..

And prolongment will become the talk soon.

Steady as she goes, the next few days runs will be crucial, D6 for a long time has been where all the fun and games start to kick off. Equally, I'm liking the tendency for one or two charts hinting at 0c Maximums down in Central Southern England by then, definitely brrr. Need a few days to nail the snowier prospects yet though but I think many are likely to see some within 10 to 14 days if not before, I would think.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

47 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Lol at the para having 65cm of snow by the end in Ireland 

Don't laugh at it, get the snow shovel out.  Might well happen following after our upcoming UK government shutdown and Europe sends their weather our way. Two predictions in one for you all there.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

UKMO again consistent with its output and this is the best model so far for the route to cold in the short term. Looks like the low at the end of the week to track over Ireland and sinking towards Brittany and introducing a easterly component to the flow over Southern Britain next weekend.  We need to see ECM go down this route this evening.

 

C

Could well be the start of a pattern reset, I'd say with the Atlantic dead as a dodo. Northeasterly and Easterlies much more prevalent as we head deeper into the backend of January. I believe this signal will show up even stronger in the modelling as next week progresses as the ensembles (especially at the beginnings of FI and beyond) spreads have already hinted at the possibilities from time to time. I'm certainly happy that no drastic turnarounds have turned up in the often oh so irrelevant weekend outputs and that the COLD is on target.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unlikely , if this run survives till tomorrow I’m Dolly Parton ! 

You're quite likely to suffer the weekend wobbles as well, Dolly. I'll take notice of the outputs once they start firming up (ooerr matron) again, come Monday.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

35 minutes ago, TheJCInsights said:

The GFS has, on and off, suggested January 22nd would be a fairly interesting snow event.

Could it be that after 34 years, I finally get a snow day on my birthday in the South??

Mine's the 21st, snowed in 2018 and had a brief settling, this could be very different but will wait and see, a long way to go. Get the cold in and worry about the specifics once here. Happy Birthday for the 22nd.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Here’s hoping that a Wedge from the West leads to a Beast from the East on this ECM run. Would finish the working week off nicely. The usual swings this week but a good weeks model watching and now the pattern is a lot closer to the reliable. Next week we will have to watch shorter term for the slider show, and FI watching longer term, for the blocking show.

3

Two shows for the price of one and hopefully more shows means more snow. A fascinating time to be interested in this learning game, that is meteorology. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

I'm not sure we'll see any comment from the experts over the weekend on the BBC forecasts. If the likes of Paul Hudson mentioned something tonight on Look North I'd be astonished. That should tell you all you need to know in forecast confidence >144, especially without cross model agreement. Tis the holy trinity of forecasting. 

Snow is being mentioned in the media forecasts, in the mid to longer-range. Moreover, they quote it as "wintry weather", quite rightly so given it's at the realms of FI and the surface-level specifics (will it, won't it snow) are guesswork at that range right now. The fact they are giving mention of it hints to me, that the beginning of FI (where model divergence is rife and spreads are all over the place) is around about next Friday, so D6 or D7. All to play for beyond this timeframe as well but the first snowfalls will come through next week for a few of us and then hopefully the snow risk will increase further still into FI.