gottolovethisweather
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Posts posted by gottolovethisweather
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1 hour ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:
JUST BEFORE I LEAVE TO GO TO THE FAMILY, I'LL GIVE OUT A FEW CHRISTMAS PRESENTS TO SOME OF OUR FAITHFUL MEMBERS
Dec 25th 1878: min -18.3c:
For those up north the coldest on record:
Dec 25th 1981: lying snow 47 cm
For our friends in Scotland, the snowiest 47 cm (and 43 cm at Buxton):
Dec 25th 2009: lying snow 43 cm
and more recently, for England, Malham Tarn (N. Yorks) again 43 cm:
Dec 25th 2010: sunshine 7.5 hours
Not everyone likes cold and snow, so just for @knocker the sunniest on record, actually at Camborne: !
Ooops, sorry that was also very cold and snowy (the snowiest in Wales - 45 cm and Northern Ireland -17 cm) !!!
Dec 25th 1920: max. 15.6 C (60 F)
So for Knocker as well as Sidney, here's the warmest (Killerton, Devon):
Even though it's Christmas, this is a model discussion thread and to keep the moderators happy, let's have a look ahead with a few post Christmas surprises for some of you. From the 6z GEFS ensemble suite I have the following presents for Wednesday, December 27th (and don't forget to "discuss these models"):
For Wales and all of northern England, I give you perturbation 6:
For The Midlands and southern England, I give you perturbation 3:
For the Home Counties, London and the south-east, I give you perturbation 4:
For those further south-west, I give you perturbation 13:
Finally, for those that have missed out, I give you this:
Have a great Christmas
1010A beauty of a post, @Bring Back1962-63 . Mods, please could you perhaps bookmark this as it'll help many people's understandings in my opinion. Which weather charts bring particular weather types to one area and not to others are a most important aspect if you ask me and this post should help that learning process.
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13 minutes ago, knocker said:
The ecm runs the low along the south coast, centred over Cornwall 1800 Tuesday. Snow knife edge M4 corridor
With even, Knocker, not knocking the snow chances, let's hope it doesn't go Knockers up.
It won't affect Sidney chaps, he'll be roasting his chestnuts on the open fire by then, or me I suspect as literally sit half a mile due South of the M4. Same as last time, then. Snow Joke! Interesting times ahead, whatever. At least, it will be cold.er' than of late, therefore more seasonal and some WILL get snow. -
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I know I promised not to post and remain in lurk mode but, people would be advised to take heed of Man With Beard's post here, when following the daily outputs, never take notice of them in isolation as you need to follow the trends to get a better grasp of what the possibilities are for our little island, say ten days down the road. Take this quote from my post, last Saturday. A lot of you probably thought I was barking mad.
"A Boxing Day wintry breakdown from the NW possibly? Could well be the case, so watch this space!
"
Anyways, chill guys, a milder spell will soon become a more turbulent spell from Boxing Day onwards and as the New Year approaches, I reckon it could get most interesting by way of colder scenarios with snow around. Boxing Day itself brings the first bout and there will be other temporary offerings as well. Transient snowfall incoming.
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24 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
And there were some writing off Xmas week and even further ahead. Just goes to show, even at the 6 and 7 day juncture it is still wide open. Will await the ECM 12z with renewed interest!
Note, the "some" in the above.
To be fair, I think it's the locked-in cold Synoptics so many want, they were quick to write off, but such spells can creep up on us out of the blue. Transient snow is the way of things these days and expecting bitter cold for days on end is a most unlikely scenario, we're given what we're given in the UK due to our position in the globe and we need to be realistic. Getting back to the specifics, the sum of it being, we should never judge a single model run in isolation, we should compare like with like, 12z with 12z or 0z with 0z and look at the bigger picture, despite that being an old netweather JH (and several trusted other nw folks) proverb, it holds a lot of water, at least the skies shouldn't for a while. Anyway, I'm supposed to be lurking, mid-range improvements, good stuff, keep em coming! -
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Well, the mild blip referenced here, seemingly turned out to be a forecast for an extended period of milder than average Temperatures. ust goes to show, we can predict stuff all we like at a surface-level, but the primary drivers of the bigger picture are often detected far sooner by the pros. My local UKMO forecast now predicts a gloomy ole picture for Newbury, scraping double-digit every day with leaden skies right through to Christmas Day itself with no crisp frosts under clear skies, yuk! Here's hoping even that forecast might alter to allow for some brighter skies. It's enough to put me off chasing FI charts for a few days, so into lurk mode I go.
Meanwhile, post-Christmas Day and beyond, hints of a-change are undoubtedly worth contemplating if you ask me. The Pacific ridging and the resultant Arctic warming must surely mean a change of direction, but the question is how will our little island be affected by it all? This latter aspect has been predicted in mid-range across all the model suites of late as shown below. Will it mean a ramping of the Jet, I wonder? I guess so, and in time it should dig south too. This post from Singularity sums things up very nicely if anybody hasn't seen it as well.
This was Sunday evening's ECM 12z at t+144.
Here's the NH image for the same timeframe now, courtesy of the ECM 0z.
That's a retrogressing High near us, and low heights over the near continent.
The t+144 hours offering ie. Christmas Day offering is interesting for sure, when looking at NH setup. Euro heights are building, granted but a change is a-foot over our shores. Focus on the encircled red area and the black boxed area.
And here's the Boxing Day offering, again a decent enough offering given the run-up to the festive period. Again, focus on the black and red paint jobs, highlighting regions to focus one's attention on over the coming days.
I cannot be drawn into looking beyond D5 regarding the surface specifics because I am of the opinion, a pattern-change is obviously on its way, but whether it brings the holy grail of wintry weather to one and all, the jury is very much still out on that one.
Do have a great festive break guys n gals and enjoy it, but equally stay safe, fit and well.
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21 minutes ago, LRD said:
NH profile isn't without interest though
Precisely. The 23rd December onwards is providing plenty of headaches right now, I would say. Run through the warming in the Pacific region way out towards the NW of our tiny island over the other side of the globe from my stated timeframe. I do wonder if this is a pattern-changer and if it stratosphere-driven? I am not qualified to answer that but suggest folk keep a watch on this aspect from here on in. A temporary (maybe an extended one) Northerly-based flow could perhaps result out of this, who knows and all of this at D6 range.
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2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:
Following slidergate I decided to take a bit of a break, but still kept an eye on the Models and been in and out of here a few times.
The Models are painting a bit of a mild picture in the more reliable, but mid/long term they don’t have a clue.
The ensemble show that quite neicely
After around D5 it starts to get a bit messy, we could quite conceivably be seeing 2m temps of 12-14c or 2-5c and longer term even more spread.
Think the modes are in a state of flux, which usually makes for interesting viewing! Bring on the fun and games! Could be a fun few days ahead.
Good to take a step back from it all, I certainly recommend that as following and commenting on every run and trying to draw conclusions from them will send oneself to a lonely place quicker than the models themselves will do, lol.
I think the spread by D5 is more to do with prospects post the mild blip (Tuesday/Wednesday) for FOG potential rather anything else, but at least a change in type at surface-level. Post-Christmas Day there were hints in the UKMO forecasts for snow in Northern parts, with the words (especially Northern parts), thereby not ruling out other areas. IMBY only one day is forecast to reach double-digits Celcius as things stand but it could be a bit gloomy. The coldest air remaining in the extreme East for another 48 hours yet. Fascinating model ruminating in deep FI right now with the near to mid-term broadly nailed on, the clued-up Strat guys should provide us with some pointers for the final week of December and beyond.
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34 minutes ago, phil nw. said:
The outlook for week 2 still looks pretty mobile.The ECM model more bullish in pushing the jet further south in it's extended ens because of the greater effect of the Alaskan ridge heading deep into the pole and forcing the Canadian pv this way.
This could bring something of interest further on if we can develop better ridging from the Atlantic pattern but currently the best chance for anything is transient north westerlies which would favour places further north and over higher ground.The retreat west of the Azores high indicated later would help with the angle of the jet enabling it to head more se.
I hope your analysis comes to fruition, Phil. I suggested something similar having spent five days or so on the sidelines, watching things unfold and by not commenting on developments around the key period.
"As at least getting about, rarely being soaked to the skin and a general dryness is a far more pleasant winter weather type than predominant southwesterly driven moisture-laden onslaught. I think this HP dominance will gradually push Northwards and perhaps, allow a return of the NW-SE diving shortwave scenarios in time for the Christmas break. A Boxing Day wintry breakdown from the NW possibly? Could well be the case, so watch this space!
"
I'm quite chilled about things as they stand as I don't see a zonal onslaught anywhere, bar the extreme NW, yes some rain tomorrow but then a largely dry run-up to Christmas and then things could develop nicely, just don't go expecting a BIG FREEZE any day soon guys.
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19 minutes ago, comet said:
Wow what a horrendous 12z run the worst by a country mile so far this winter. Well the only way is up from there. The difference between that and the 06z run post t192 is laughable.
It is equally laughable that anybody pays much attention to the modelling at t+11,520 minutes down the line. The GFS is rarely trusted by a number of the professional forecasters on here and elsewhere. Inter and intra-run changes are most noticeable where the divergences are greatest, ie. so I suggest somewhere around D7 to D9, the first noticeable changes will start to take affect by then. As per that eluded to by Daniel in his post above and I feel this change in direction will come from a retrogressing High much further North than currently modelled. The breakdown will come from Northern parts and there will hopefully be a wintry feel to things once again by Boxing Day and beyond.
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19 minutes ago, mulzy said:
Limited amplification on UKMO.
And hints of heights being promoted further North as I suggested in my post above especially in the D5/D6 charts. Nice.
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On 10/12/2017 at 22:19, gottolovethisweather said:
For anybody wondering, we humans and current computer modelling techniques do NOT allow us to know anything for certain, as denoted by what has just happened over the past 24 hours with the snowfall. Not an attack on you, per se but your highlighted sentence above should perhaps replace the word "knows" so that it states "supposes" or "forecasted" i.e. guesswork. Yes, it is the best advice we have on offer currently and all of us will interpret things differently as do all the various weather models and their individual members runs. I would suggest others follow who or what model they want to but never take anything for granted. My prediction is the milder zonal blip will be brief in duration and to be fair, we can't even predict what will happen tomorrow yet with any great certainty either. The bigger stratospheric effects are often lost on me so I'll take on board others views there but I will never take any forecasts post D4 with high confidence levels, more especially so at this time of year.
Night all, enjoy the snow where you have it and do take care out there during that morning commute.
1Some fantastic input in here again today, thanks, guys n gals.
The 12zs are rolling and tonight's ECM will provide those first clues for the big day. Well, it's been nearly a week since I posted and the fears of a mild zonal onslaught (often a default UK winter pattern in recent years) has barely come to fruition for any part of the UK. The first double-digit maximums are forecast on 20th December, the first time Newbury has seen such temperatures for many weeks.
Now upon stepping back from the inter and intra-runs of the various model outputs for several days, my feeling is that only the far NW and perhaps western parts will see much Atlantic frontal influence in the run-up to Christmas. As for IMBY, I'm happy to bank the frosty, sometimes cloudy but dry HP dominated setup. As at least getting about, rarely being soaked to the skin and a general dryness is a far more pleasant winter weather type than predominant southwesterly driven moisture-laden onslaught. I think this HP dominance will gradually push Northwards and perhaps, allow a return of the NW-SE diving shortwave scenarios in time for the Christmas break. A Boxing Day wintry breakdown from the NW possibly? Could well be the case, so watch this space!
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1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:
But we've known this for quite a few days now Frosty. Everyone knows we're going to have a milder or "less cold" spell.
The post suggested a worry about longer term outputs and I don't know why when many of our learned posters have suggesting a return to colder weather late in Dec/early Jan. Again we've known this for some days now.
Now is the time to relax and wait and not unduly worry about the short/medium term output in my view. We are only 10 days into winter after all.
2For anybody wondering, we humans and current computer modelling techniques do NOT allow us to know anything for certain, as denoted by what has just happened over the past 24 hours with the snowfall. Not an attack on you, per se but your highlighted sentence above should perhaps replace the word "knows" so that it states "supposes" or "forecasted" i.e. guesswork. Yes, it is the best advice we have on offer currently and all of us will interpret things differently as do all the various weather models and their individual members runs. I would suggest others follow who or what model they want to but never take anything for granted. My prediction is the milder zonal blip will be brief in duration and to be fair, we can't even predict what will happen tomorrow yet with any great certainty either. The bigger stratospheric effects are often lost on me so I'll take on board others views there but I will never take any forecasts post D4 with high confidence levels, more especially so at this time of year.
Night all, enjoy the snow where you have it and do take care out there during that morning commute.
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32 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
I'm still not convinced that the Atlantic will come crashing in. Yes it may not be quite as cold as the last few days but there is only 1 mild day programmed on the ECM and that is at day 8. That has the possibilty to be watered down. The PV is not at full throttle yet and the jet is still showing a tendency to continue with the NW/SE axis so I wouldn't be surprised to see further cold incursions lasting longer than ant mild interludes.
No traditional zonality modelled in the reliable just yet. Just no blocking either.
3Indeed, I'm of the belief, the exact opposite will happen and result in a rather memorable period of weather during this December. I hinted at this in last night's post here. As for reading the stratospheric signals and such complexities, I'll leave that to others, more knowledgeable on those matters, such as your good self. With -14c projected overnight on Tuesday morning over the snowfields, travel chaos through icy roads etc. and the more snow chances yet to come as hinted at by AJ above. It's pretty memorable already, to be fair. It's as if the Express headlines have actually come true for at least a couple of days this winter, shame about the other 2,000 headlines prior. A mild blip on Wednesday with some rain and wind about once again, but aside from that six out of the seven days will be chilly for all, very cold for a few with ICE days thrown in. ENJOY!
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As my post got removed, not too surprised as it was borderline MOD related, so apologies there. But was hoping an attempted explanation of the why it didn't snow IMBY or elsewhere for others would help the learning curve of many in here. Many of us put too much emphasis on the models, follow them religiously and expect them to deliver. As it is one of the weirdest days of snow watching I've ever experienced (as mentioned in my removed post). Perhaps Nick F, Phil nw or someone with plenty of knowhow could daft something in the near future, it WILL aid the learning curves of a number in here and will perhaps stip too many of those posts the MODS don't want to see. Including this post, lol. Apologies again.
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18 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
After we get that low out of the way on Thursday it is back to settled and cold again. Heights then try to go to Scandi but the Atlantic is picking up strength at the wrong time. Interesting viewing though looks like a battle setting up.
And my gut feeling is that most will remain well below average in the run up with the milder spell forecast for mid-week, downgraded over the next couple of days. Get the next two day's weather out of the way and we'll know more. I think the lying snow area could expand more widely than currently forecast and with that comes severe frosts over snowfields and temperatures struggling to get to currently modelled values. Quite a lot of my own conjecture but we can certainly learn from past events and their aftermath and cold air CAN be hard to shift.
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11 minutes ago, Nick F said:
I think the rain and snow 00z GFS was showing across S England on Monday is related to an old occlusion left over from Sunday's low(s) moving through bringing the snow across Wales and Midlands - rather than from the deep low moving NE across France. 06z GFS seems to have got rid quickly south in the morning any rain/snow from the occlusion, the precipitation from low over France only clipping Kent really.
UKMET-G and ECMF do confine precipitation to the far SE of England from the low over France, like ARPEGE, could be cold enough in the northern edge of the precipitation for some snow, most likely North Downs, maybe a bit of wet snow lower down.
GFS seems to be a lot faster with Monday's low moving through northern France, if it ends up deeper it will be further north, so will bring precipitation and risk of snow on its northern edge further N and NW.
Thanks, @Nick F, I believe you are correct re: the developing low, although as they're very tricky to accurately forecast when coming up from said region, I firmly believe it might pack a last-minute wintry surprise for some. In fact, you suggest just that with your final sentence. Fascinating times ahead and all set to happen within the next 48 hours, lol.
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2 hours ago, Devonshire said:
Would you be kind enough to say why?
Intense developing low bumping into cold air in-situ up from Biscay and briefly affecting Northern France as well. Almost your old-style Channel Low. Granted, it's still some way off at +48 hours and cold rain is forecast for a number of locations as well. A case of watch, wait and see and all this after the first feature comes through, tomorrow night.
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Aside from worrying about the post-mid week breakdown and who or where will the snowfall be, which parts will see rain etc. How often do you hear the media forecasts state these words for lowland parts of the UK, let alone England? DISRUPTION and SNOW in the same short sentence. The latest Beeb forecast, for instance, reminded me of situations from past classic Winters )and I was born in the 1970s), it is well worth a view again if you haven't seen them. Granted, we're not all going to get the snow, and a few of us might care for it too much but it is what it is and the next few days are FASCINATING to say the very least. Enjoy!
Check out the above Fax Chart; it truly is one for the archives. All this within 72 hours as well. The t+60 chart is worth checking out as well.
EDIT: Here's the t+60 Fax Chart, see what I mean.
Bleedin interesting setup, I say.
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I think this was originally a response to a deleted post but I say it still needs stating as to what my personal views are over the coming days and whether people's hopes and fears might get realised with the main attention brought to the SNOW chances.
Just a point of reference, although people will take what they will from the latest outputs, but something can't be over before its arrived, surely? From my point of view, if we're considering Sunday's action, current guesses (with respect to all forecasters, that's all they are currently) hint at Midlands northwards snow event but I personally don't believe it'll be nailed before t-24 hours before the event, so that's Saturday, folks. As for the here and now, plenty to watch, the more snow that settles prior to the big weekend event, the better chances of it turning readily to yet more snow. Longer term, I'm not looking past D4, yes you heard that right, the depth of the cold, the depth of the snow and the disturbances in the Northerly flow are all prospects to consider what might happen during the next working week. All I'll say, keep tuned, keep watching, prepare yourselves with winter essentials if travelling and bl^*y well take care out there!
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15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Yes i think the south are effectively out of the game as it stands.
But it could change again of course
3Just a point of reference, although p[people will take what they will from the latest outoputs, but something can't be over before its arrived, surely?
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31 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
I’d say you are in a prime location my friend!
Hush, young man.
I'm thinking of all fellow snow-starved folk as well. And I'm deliberately not focussing on the potential further on, either. Fascinating Synoptics and feels akin to days of old (80s/90s winters?).
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Just now, karlos1983 said:
GTLTW - this will continue to back south west, I am absolutely convinced! Even the ecm has taken a big step towards that today.
The far south west might struggle, this time .......
Haven't caught up with all the runs but I'll take your word for it. Could include a fair few of us for once?
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Hello all,
Long time, no speak, long time, no snow.
I'm quite hopeful. Those nearer the coast might struggle, granted but inland parts certainly deserve a dusting and I think it may just happen.
Bring it on!
It won't affect Sidney chaps, he'll be roasting his chestnuts on the open fire by then, or me I suspect as literally sit half a mile due South of the M4. Same as last time, then. 
Snow Joke! Interesting times ahead, whatever. At least, it will be cold.er' than of late, therefore more seasonal and some WILL get snow. 
"
To be fair, I think it's the locked-in cold Synoptics so many want, they were quick to write off, but such spells can creep up on us out of the blue. Transient snow is the way of things these days and expecting bitter cold for days on end is a most unlikely scenario, we're given what we're given in the UK due to our position in the globe and we need to be realistic. Getting back to the specifics, the sum of it being, we should never judge a single model run in isolation, we should compare like with like, 12z with 12z or 0z with 0z and look at the bigger picture, despite that being an old netweather JH (and several trusted other nw folks) proverb, it holds a lot of water, at least the skies shouldn't for a while. Anyway, I'm supposed to be lurking, mid-range improvements, good stuff, keep em coming! 
Model output discussion - heading into 2018
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by gottolovethisweather
In Costa Del Newbury, these days, any snow is good news. Especially if there are temporary accumulations. Could be two such instances before the turn of the year, that alone is something for coldies like me to celebrate. One mild day before the turn of the year on Saturday is the forecast currently it seems, alongside a few bouts of wintry mixes of rain, sleet or snow. I'll take that with open arms, given the mild dreary dull dank episodes of late, hopefully some brighter skies in between.