gottolovethisweather
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Posts posted by gottolovethisweather
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:
Great charts but never really cold enough for snow away from high ground Midlands north, could get better of course!! Just shows how good Nov 2010 must have been to bring that big freeze so early on in the year !!
See my post from yesterday, @Ali1977kind of what I and many others expected. Baby steps with our eyes set firmly on the prize, longer-term. Keep expectations your relatively low, and we might all get what we want. Well, most of us that is who like the seasonal scenes of years past.
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5 hours ago, Sky Full said:
The charts for next Saturday from the main models show some diversity as you would expect at this distance:
UKMO
ECM
GFS
GEM
The details will have to wait for later but I see a definite trend for the departing depression in the north east to draw colder air from the north west across the UK for the end of the month. Whether this will bring snow to some parts is still to be decided but at least we are going in the right direction for the start of winter and there are plenty of routes to proper cold weather available in later charts. Once we get that huge block established from the Azores to Greenland it's game on (it will happen, I can see it in the tea leaves....)!
Likewise, me too. Colder and snowier prospects involving a few days, namely Monday and Wednesday for parts of Scotland (not all hilltop stuff either) and potentially parts of Ireland in the following working week. Then by Friday onwards, hints of something much colder heading even further south. Looking back at recent weeks and the run of cold weekends, yes it's been mainly dry down south but with a few more frosts than in the recent past. During one or two of them, they didn't even produce an air frost through the whole of Autumn. We are in a completely different territory this time around. It will feel very mild this coming week, yes and the Atlantic will awaken from its slumber. However, once the troughing fills and heads slowly Northwestwards, the arctic plunge for next weekend (a recurring them) feels nailed on to my mind. D6 and beyond is where it's at, and snow will likely appear in more of the weather headlines as we head towards the end of November. Late November snowfall is not that rare, yet hill snow is probably the best I could wish for these days, given the volatility of our current climate. Over to the regular posters in here for their views and better access to the model outputs than I.
Looking forward to winter and all that it may bring.
Best Wishes
gottolovethisweather
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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
On the 30th anniversary of the 1987 storm, we could well have another in the name of Brian if this comes off for Ireland
Keep up, SS. I thought you were always first with the news.
Never in a million years, did I think it might come off? Helen Willetts said they're watching things closely at the BBC or words to that effect and that's the first I've heard the Beeb mention it in their forecasts. Will be fascinating to see what develops or doesn't as the case might be.
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1 hour ago, phil nw. said:
A sharp temperature gradient showing on the charts between the tropical and polar air masses resulting in the energised jet stream wavering near us over the coming days.
So yes a burst of Summer like heat,especially further south but also creating ripe conditions for further cyclonic development along the boundary.
Indeed all eyes to the south west over the next 5 days as to the track/development of further wave depressions forming south of the Azores from the influx of tropical air.
Latest gfs at day 4 shows such a feature at the base of the main Atlantic trough ready to run NE.
As already said by others one to watch because of the rain and storm force winds associated with them.
Uncertainty on this currently and the hope is the continental high here on the 06z gfs can just steer it on a more northerly route further away before it collapses under the resurgent jet from the west later next week.
For N.Ireland and NW Scotland though it does look a close run thing.
One thing's for sure, the BBC forecasts from the ones I've watched thus far daren't go there yet it seems with the strongest focus on the impressive rainfall totals (potentially unwelcome, 175mm and counting currently on the highest peaks) and the heat burst shortly afterwards for parts South of Birmingham at the weekend. As to why they won't comment on next week, I think are playing the extra cautious, softly, softly deck of cards and who can blame them. Knocker's posts and yours and a few others besides prove to me, that that is currently a wise move. Fascinating mid-October period of weather, one that will baffle the wildlife as well.
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11 hours ago, knocker said:
I didn't twig earlier but this is what the ecm is playing with and developing as an extra tropical feature. We shall see
I'm not saying a word but...... thirty years on and the timeframes are broadly similar given the projected dates.
2 hours ago, knocker said:On a closer time scale the ecm has some very nasty weather overnight and into Weds, for Scotland, N.Ireland and northern England with heavy rain and gales, perhaps severe. Flash forward to 00 Sunday and the wave is west of N. Ireland and Ophelia is tracking east just south of the Azores who could receive some very inclement weather from this and the front.
The wave continues on it's journey NE as the front loses it's identity over the western half of the Britain on Sunday as the rest of England basks in temps up to 23C in places. Meanwhile Orphelia is starting to swing NNE and is an intense little feature in the southern Irish Sea by 18 Tuesday. en route to the borders. Needless to say this scenario would drag some rain and warm temps with it.
That's just one theory of course.
6Anyway, as an aside and broadly weather-related, so bear with me. Where I ventured birding today, small flocks of Redwings and Fieldfares were seen passing overhead, not far off their normal arrival dates but do give them the heads-up as they MAY wish to head back North soon temporarily to avoid the incoming heatwave and then back South again, shortly afterwards.
So in summary, courtesy of the many posts in here, unsettled, more especially towards the North and West, windy if not stormy and cool to average up North and very warm fro time darn South. Next week, eyes on the jetstream and the features aforemnentioned above.
A woman just emailed to say "Tony, get off the bleedin weather forums", I replied, "Don't worry, they're won't be another post like this",
not simply enough meat on the bones...... Really thhirty years ago next week, blimey o'reilly
Until next time, take care all.
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I've been lurking on and off for quite a while throughout my busier past few months work-wise, and I thought I'd rear my ugly head once again. Pants second-half to summer really but the rain was much-needed in farmer's fields and for a few other industries, despite it washing out a lot of the wildlife such as butterflies and the like. Autumn has kicked in early, check the local trees and shrubbery near you, tells you all you need to know I guess. Intrigued by Damianslaw's (I think it t'was him) post about the possibilities of this being a bit of a different autumn to what we get normally. My gut feeling makes me believe we will get the usual drier slot just beyond mid-month possibly stretching into late September, especially decent towards the South and South West, but far from dry and often unpleasant for those up North though with plenty of depressions with drenching rains and gales at times. Early season frosts in any drier slots are likely too, I'd say, in what will continue to be a rather chilly flow (when compared to average) for most, pleasant in any sunshine though, of course. October and November will be quite stormy months, I'd suggest, with wintry interludes (sleet, hail, mountain snow) occasionally edging south at times, while brief ridges will often make you think of a certain Crowded House tune, Four Seasons In One Day when any sunshine and drier interludes chase the showers and rainbands away.
Best Wishes all.
gottolovethisweather
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One word sums up next week. CONVECTION. After all, it is April. Get your cameras out.
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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:
I can't see the this having any affect down south, 11c by day maybe a zero at night.
-4c in prone spots tonight, so I take it you're speaking from an urban context there. Certainly some impressive diurnal ranges might be in the offing when the flow backs to the South, eventually.
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1 hour ago, Eugene said:
Wow my heating hasn't come on for a long time, it's hardly been that cold has it with temps mainly in double figures by day and no harsh frosts for over a month.
My last Air Frost was, in fact, 10th February, Eugene. So we did have front-loaded winter when it came to frosts but certainly not the magical white stuff. That never arrived apart from a few flakes, so I guess it'll probably arrive when few would want to see it. The irony of our changed climate.
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On 13/04/2017 at 12:00, knocker said:
Ant'astic.
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:
Yes I hope the Ecm 12z is right about another anticyclonic spell during early April..this weekend has been fabulous even with the much discussed cirrus clouds.
It cirrusly has been fabulous, hasn't it. The birds they've been a singing and I expect to see a few migrant Swallows and a few more incoming warblers nationwide ahead of next week's southerly drift. Nothing but blue skies......
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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Tonight's Gfs 18z is still going for a lot of cloud tomorrow..and just like today, it will be completely wrong.
The Weekend wobbles have returned again? Perhaps the GFS is programmed to count contrails these days, plenty of them noticeable today for sure and likewise, tomorrow.
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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Tuesday looks a bit different, more cloud and some heavy and thundery showers across England and Wales but still with some sunshine around and warm enough at 16/17c.
Saw a reference to this incoming frontal system on the BBC just now, no mention of Thunder but did wonder what season we are in? 19 degrees today and an anticipated maximum for tomorrow. Three sunny days and a Thunderstorm, we must have skipped spring and moved straight on to summer.
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3 hours ago, Daniel* said:
Seemingly winter has gone out on a whimper what a sterile climate we have, March is certain to be another above average month. Winter fans not to return till autumn 2017 where the arduous chase starts again. Anyway it does turn quite warm at the end of GFS 06z southerly winds dragging up some 'plumey' warmth. Easter skiing in the Alps in doubt if this is to be believed.
A D16 chart, yes or no or maybe but to my mind, WHATEVER. Nearer to hand, tonight's ECM shows some wintry potential from around t+120 hours, i.e., 16th March onwards. I'm hopeful for an atypical cooler spell taking hold before the real warmth returns say mid-April or thereabouts. Either way, I trust a dreadfully cold numbing spell aka March 2013 shouldn't be happening anytime soon.
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On 03/03/2017 at 22:23, Polar Bear said:
All good tanks GTLTW. Hope you are too.. reminds me must send you a vid of a wee birdy tweeting loudly in the tree tother day. Need to know what it is!
PM me it Polar Bear. I'll second guess at a Song Thrush before I even see your video.
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26 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:
Yep heard it too and caught the glimpse of the lightning. Very heavy downpour
Nice one PB. I hope you're well.
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Good to see reports of Thunder elsewhere as ever and luckily for me, I can also report my First thunder day of the year too. Just a moment ago.
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3 minutes ago, snowray said:
Yes story of this winter, always out at D10, sometimes D8 or D9, and then gone!
That's why it's called FI. You can chase your favoured weather conditions all you like, but I'm a non-believer in pre-judging each output at such a range, as it should merely be used for trend spotting. When D8-10 or whatever repeats the pattern over consecutive or inter-related runs, i.e., 12z with 12z, then you can have some degree of faith in its judgement.
As to my prediction for the start of the first week of March, unsettled particularly so towards the North and West with the finest and mildest weather always favouring the South and SouthWest. Frosts by night limited but possible in the clearer conditions.
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1 hour ago, snowray said:
I was just about to post them two charts myself, its a joke all this chopping and changing at D6, I mean there never seems to be any agreement this winter between the models even in the shorter term, them charts are miles apart.
1See my post last night in response to Summer Sun. As the saying goes, more runs needed, especially true when the models get the weekend wobbles. We'll have more idea by Monday evening's ECM as to where February might end, whether cooler, drier or milder as now and unsettled. I suspect tonight's ECM will revert back to a cooler spell from 23rd onwards for a number of days as it was steadfast in suggesting such a scenario early to midway through this week. I don't watch the GFS anymore so cannot comment on what that expected for next week.
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45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
The ECM ens shows nothing more than a day or 2 of slightly colder air later next week so temps most likely closer to average for a couple of days before rising for the final few days of winter
22nd February onwards, remains one to watch. Wouldn't trust anything at D8 or beyond so yes, there is hope for coldies judging on Summer Sun's graph. The day or two SS refers to my eyes is from D6 through to D8 so after that is clearly FI, all to play for then. Mild and very Mild briefly at first then cooler to slightly below average (think wintry showers perhaps?). I also concur fully with Phil NW's post up thread, a sound analysis as ever.
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54 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Fleeting cold and back to mild, nothing substantial just middle ground. North taking the brunt of the worst weather.
With all this mild a cold spell in March with any umph could be devastating.
Saw bumble bees today!!
Was just thinking the same, The slower trickling transition from winter to spring is as kind as it gets for Mother Nature and the farming sector, so that in itself might not be a bad thing. Yes, I would like to see another roll of the dice for wintry synoptics, and personally, I think we are more likely to receive one than not, but it has been a kind weather season so far, and that trend might continue into spring.
The 22nd February onwards for a few days thereafter is still a tentative WATCH period for me.
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:
All the talk of next week being very spring like and yet the Ecm 12z is only showing very mild for Monday and thereafter it becomes cooler / colder.
I've got my eyes on that trend too. It's truly only a trend if it remains steadfast and is still there in another three to four days time down into t+96 timeframes or thereabouts. Even if the ECM drops it on a run or two, it is something to bear in mind. Alongside other global factors and upper air dynamics mentioned by others, around about the 22nd February onwards could be a cold synoptics WATCH alert for me.
Winter is not done with yet!
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Another snow falling day. I suspect as I mentioned in my MOD thread post a couple of days back, the hills will get something that settles but sadly, the rest of us frustratingly have Dew Points the wrong side of zero. Added to that, wet surfaces, I do at least, here in Newbury. Tonight's event was recently downplayed as a wintry mix on a BBC forecast I saw earlier, but that could yet change in our favour, albeit it all turns to rain for most by tomorrow afternoon. A pretty disappointing spell of wintry possibilities in fairness when you consider Air Temperatures have not breached 2c since 21:30 hours on the 8th February at home. Something slightly milder as the new working week wears on.
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Some light flurries in Newbury right now, barely coming to anything but at least I can add another rare lowland central Southern England snow day.
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not simply enough meat on the bones...... Really thhirty years ago next week, blimey o'reilly
Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Three days on and the weather developments are pretty much as expected; tomorrow looks both stormier and snowier than might have been imagined though. A genuinely wild day this Thursday with gales down Southern parts especially. Up the far North and potentially into parts of Northern Ireland, there could be some decent falls of snow. I must stop mentioning that word though; I'll start sounding like Nick Windy Miller from last night's long-range tv forecast. What of next week, I hear you say? Interchangeable spells of rain then wintry mixes are the most likely scenario with the driest weather further South. Before that, another cold weekend, in fact, the coldest since last winter, or so it seems, with temperatures struggling below 7c to 8c at best.