[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Bank

 

Edit: absolute stonker sypnotically this

All I can say is, should that come off, Happy Birthday gottolovethisweather. Intriguingly, such charts have been replicated on several recent occasions at that timeframe of late, hmmm. Could it?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

27 minutes ago, chris55 said:

EC 168 similar to gfs para, this is the period to be watching IMO, the ops may well roll it over at the moment, but I say watch this space....

Yep, FI begins right there I'd suggest, as depicted by the ensembles spreads, anything beyond is just dreamed up charts or charts from hell depending on one's preference. In the main, everything synoptically is nailed beforehand so, let's get these chart examples into D3 or D4 by next Monday and what an end to January it could be! 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ecm 144  northerly incoming

 

Yes and the surface High way out West, good riddance to it. All looking good in the reliable, end of next week well up for grabs.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Does ECM at 72 not look a little like this.

Yep, the surface High could do with sinking a bit I guess, but all going to plan, makes me think FI is nearer t+168 hours as opposed to much earlier on, the trend is clearly our friend. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

While waiting for the ECM outputs, worth bearing in mind the following.

Pleasing to see this prediction of mine is still on course.

Also, note the UKMO Pressure charts as early as t+84 hours, which is the start of the upcoming unsettled spell and the first shot at wintry weather for a wee while. The highlighted regions in a blue box and the magenta arrows denote things to watch even at this early stage.

 

 

[Model banter returns]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

I am saying early Feb as I am in South Africa until the 27th and want to be back for the fun

That's if your flight can land, among the drifts we'll have in place by then. Okay, slightly overoptimistic here, but one never knows.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

31 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I see what is happening here. With the reverse flow the Canadian lobe is being fuelled by the Euro lobe bleeding into it, this means we have to wait far longer for the initial split as the energy is transferred.

Because of this, I am going for a huge easterly early part of February as the energy over Euro drains away.

1

Nah, before that, it'll kick into gear sometime between 21st and 31st January.

Pleasing to see this prediction of mine is still on course.

Also, note the UKMO Pressure charts as early as t+84 hours, which is the start of the upcoming unsettled spell and the first shot at wintry weather for a wee while. The highlighted regions in a blue box and the magenta arrows denote things to watch even at this early stage.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

It looks like the 18z last night was indeed an outlier in amplifying straight away. The Euro and both GFS models have returned to yesterday’s pattern of events which is essentially that winter arrives for Scotland on the 17th via a nnw, winter arrives for the bulk of England on the 20th/21st via Wnw which all been well should push showers well inland. Afterwards there are some runs and ensembles trying to bring easterlies albeit at that range the signal is still incoherent.

That's the firm trend, in my opinion, has been since Monday. We need to firstly endure NW'rly flows from the 14th for a few days, wintry showers (more up North than anywhere) in between rain bands with average to cold temps the further North you go. Come the end of the next working week (D7/D8 currently) winds back increasingly to the North with NW-SE diving lows becoming more prominent. The final third of January, snow likely almost anywhere at times, but equally many might have to endure bitter cold crisp nights and days whilst being predominantly dry, oh yes, with winds coming from an Easterly quadrant by then. I am expecting some stonking charts in the mid-range over the next couple of days for coldies to view.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

31 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

obviously if this was a bog standard setup (if such a thing exists) i.e. no SSW, then I would be pretty sceptical about what the EC46 is showing and expectations from a NWP point of view at such timescales (D10+). I would say I'm cautiously optimistic right now, the fact we have the EC, CFS, Met Office all basically singing from the same hymn sheet makes we wonder what could possibly go..... I think I'll stop just short of finishing that sentence..

the next 7-10 days is going to feel like eternity on here, the expectations are understandably high.  But this is what we all come on this forum for, I'm not one to wish time away but I hope the next week goes quickly and without incident!

from the 12z and future suites, I'm looking for the UKMO to give us some early indicators upstream that things are on track, as well as Building Heights across the Polar regions and breaking down that PV Lobe. The GFS Op I'm not to worried about as it will flip flop around for a while, but the GEFS Ens are important and will hopefully help quash any doubts, looking for the mean to steadily get colder. ECM, really want to see it have D6 comparisons with the UKMO so we can then take D7-10 with some form of realistic view of what's shaping up.

Enjoy  

 

8

8

Indeed and as I mentioned here, the real fun and games are just sitting outside the reliable right now, but by next Monday at the latest, the wintry charts are within reach and more importantly realistic in nature, hence why I'm never a fan of D8 onwards charts, unless they are repeated daily at least once right down to t+48 hours or whatever. The first wintry taster for a lucky few is today through Thursday then back to mostly dry and settled, after that post D8/D9 is where it ALL kicks off. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

41 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think you are underestimating the intellects of quite a few people gtltw...IMO, habitual toy-throwers will always find some reason to dispense with their rattles: 'wrong' teleconnections, 'imprecise' MetO updates, FI charts, no-snow-in-my-backyard, you name it...?

Quite possibly. The NWP outputs and teleconnections are the most sophisticated tools we currently have these days. The rest are just tools. If only they looked at themselves in the mirror once in a while. Anyway, enough, I'm derailing quickly this thread myself.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This looks about what we would expect, assuming the forecast, for transient northerlies during the run-up to the main event, is correct:

Are charts for T+219 still permissible BTW?

Absolutely, that chart is 9,900 minutes nearer the reliable timeframe than your previous t+384hr chart.  It is precisely this that people view (D10 to D16 charts whatever they be in minutes) as a given and accordingly vent their frustrations as they do not recur in the way a coldie would like. I think we ALL should state timescales and usual caveats involved as often as is possible in our posts to avoid the toy-throwing and take everybody reading as being a newbie to the Meteorology game. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

On 06/01/2019 at 15:21, gottolovethisweather said:

Thank you, a most informative and well-measured post right there. Monday's 12zs onwards will bring back the colder scenarios to the NWP outputs after these weekend wobbles, you mark my words! I agree on the increasing signal of the NW-SE tracking lows, the first of which on Monday/Tuesday should see wintry showers in its wake. Look NW. Look N and eventually E come the final third of January if not before is what I think will happen, with a big switch around first being consistently highlighted within the reliable by w/c 14th January. Patience once again necessary, especially so, if we really want deep cold to show up within D4-D5 timescales.

1

I still stand by this and maintain that this week will be a much better read, watch, listen and learning experience for all. Going on what several of the old school forum users have stated, the wintry charts at FI should finally be entering that all-important, reachable and realistic short-term to mid-range (D3 to D6) by the end of this working week, if not next Monday. Let's get the cold in firstly before even seeking out the snow chances as well, please. A week of eye-candy 00z and 12z NWP outputs lies ahead.

 

Additionally, to save face on constant who said this and that, make your own minds up and follow a select few experience others, equally save the odd chart to your pc, mobile or laptop and track the signals yourselves as mentioned here. We're all here to learn, and the weather is teaching us new tricks, every week if not day of the year.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We might be on the cusp of a monster?

These t+20,800 minutes charts are getting tedious now. 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

27 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Cheers chaps @feb1991blizzard @s4lancia That’s my wobble straightened out, given myself a slap back in the room. Over to the ECM 

Your wobbles won't end until tomorrow methinks, lol.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

42 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will be looking to do a another update on the 8th Jan as that was my date to look out for but here is a summary from my POV 

If I had to give percentages with most likely outcomes for the next 2 weeks (again starting from the 8th Jan) so that would be up until the 22nd Jan here are my percentages

(overall 85%- low pressures starting to take a more NW - SE track and perhaps struggling to get much past the UK, a few from the  06z GEFS not far off the mark)   

45% - Northerly   > North easterly   (possibly then an easterly) 

35% -  above average heights get into the right position and take us straight into an easterly  

20% - the above average heights end up more of a west based - NAO / fail to develop over Greenland , scandi or the arctic or low pressures become too deep and head through the UK aka "zonal" 

My key things to look out for over the next 2 - 7 days 

1.Above average heights and where they are heading - Arctic / Greenland    

Iceland / Scandi  

Possibility of more of a west based -NAO   

2. Teleconnections (AO/NAO) and other background factors strat, MJO etc (more knowledgeable posters than me for these, @Bring Back1962-63 @Catacol @Singularity @Glacier Point @lorenzo @Tamara apologies if I missed anyone)

 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml          http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml  

3. Other models coming on board with the blocking signal, ECM, JMA, NAVGEM, GEM etc could be another few days before they begin to pick it up simply due to the fact they dont go to the same +hr as the GFS, GEFS

 

 and hopefully this will be the UK within the next 2-3 weeks  

9

Thank you, a most informative and well-measured post right there. Monday's 12zs onwards will bring back the colder scenarios to the NWP outputs after these weekend wobbles, you mark my words! I agree on the increasing signal of the NW-SE tracking lows, the first of which on Monday/Tuesday should see wintry showers in its wake. Look NW. Look N and eventually E come the final third of January if not before is what I think will happen, with a big switch around first being consistently highlighted within the reliable by w/c 14th January. Patience once again necessary, especially so, if we really want deep cold to show up within D4-D5 timescales.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

22 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The problem with this whole GFS vs METO vs ECM debate is that its not as simplistic as is stated on either side of the argument and yet again we see belittling of others views (not you to be fair).

GFS does verify slightly less well than some of the other models, but GFS gives us more data. So, the GFS opp might be a little bit less reliable the METO / ECM but with GFS we get too see a control run and 20 GEFS.

If people want to ignore the GFS so be it but its their loss and they shouldn't be disparaging about contrary views. I'm suspicious of ECM when it shows easterlies at range, but I don't ignore it.

 

 

5

In my opinion, the best way to view the GFS is to ignore the 6z and 18z outputs, stick to only the midnight and midday, save some charts to your laptop or desktop, say 120hrs, 168hrs and 240hrs for example and reanalyse them each day. Same goes for the GEFS ensembles which are more reliable in the main and useful for trend indications, around D6 to D10 timescales. If you get het up about "on the ground" specifics at such ranges, you're in the wrong game, upper air patterns and stratosphere (I lack plenty of knowledge hereabouts) are where all of us should be focussing our attention.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

29 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

for god sake, how about some people actually discussing the model outputs rather than all the bum-licking/sniping/arguing that goes on in here...For so called 'grown up adults' posting in here, there are some disturbingly good impressions of 5 year olds 

AJ quote at its finest.  And yes, it's only the weather. No talk of walls, Brexit, beer or kebabs, just fun in the netweather forum asylum. All eyes on the ECM will which likely go against the odds and return to normal predictions come Monday.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Was tongue in cheek and you are of course entitled to your opinion

Moving on, we seem to have pretty good agreement at +96 just small differences really!

certainly a cold second half of the week is odds on! it’s what happens thereafter that’s got my attention! 

Oh yes, D4/D5 and beyond is where FI sits at the moment I think. Not convinced by the lack of wintry synoptics mentioned in the BBC longer-range forecasts, I think they'll soon be playing to coldies' tunes as the turnaround and blocked Atlantic signal takes up more prominence.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Having analysed other people's thoughts and posted charts, the key timeframe to perhaps talk seriously about some snow now is January 9th through January 11th. That is still D6 to D8 at this range, so post the weekend wobbles (guaranteed), we need Monday's official forecasts and NWP outputs to highlight this first real wintry possibility of the winter so far. More fun and games as we head deeper into the second part of January no doubt. A 50/50 chance right now I guess. The caveat is just where will the HP ridge sit, if out in the Atlantic, then places, East and Northeast might be best suited for the wintry stuff. Time to worry over those specifics is not now, however.

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Is it such that finally, the NWP outputs are following my advice, not just my hunch either btw, a few other posters have been resolute in not jumping all over every run and have continually looked at things in the round.

 

Week two cold snowy spell still on target?

 

Now, we just need the cards to fall in place and the specifics for next week will be clearer by the weekend. Get these D9 and D10 charts to be there at D4 and D5 by then and we're on for a decent chance of snow-filled synoptics.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

51 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I was -4 years old

I think I've got a picture of it, @karlos1983

Toddler in the snow

 

 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Not sure what the long-term prospects hold because I haven't been following every update but the short-term appears to have the cold upped a notch. Media forecasts showing Maximum temperatures of 3c or 4c even down south in the big cities, come, the end of the week. Not far removed from my expectations here I think, with a colder scenario slowly developing and snow in the mix by week two or three?

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

corking stratospheric run on the 12z GFS,split maintained throughout but the siberian lobe pushed way to the south with a huuuuuugggggggeeeeeee  ridge in the pole - big reversal. potential Easterly if we could get that propagating down through the atmosphere.

Week two Northerly and Northeasterly kicks in. Week three (14th January onwards) brings a Beast from the East again, perhaps? That's how I would write all predictions up to mid-January right now. A slowly developing yet perfect scenario is eventually coming to us snow lovers IMHO.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

This is the latest from the NCEP discussion for NY State:

The Thursday through Friday time frame continues to feature a low
confidence forecast, as model guidance showing considerable
disagreement with regards to timing and track of a potential
significant storm system approaching from the west. Main challenge
is how models are handling potential phasing of northern/southern
stream energy. It appears the ECMWF continues to be most consistent,
indicating a progressive upper level low tracking east into the
southern Appalachians by Thursday night, then phasing with a
northern stream trough on Friday inducing cyclogenesis near the
southern New England coast. The GFS and CMC are also now indicating
phasing and coastal development, although have this occurring much
earlier (Thursday night as opposed to Friday). The GFS is depicting
a more southerly track and thus lighter QPF in our area, while the
CMC has a track closer to the ECMWF (although much earlier).

Will lean towards the ECMWF due to better consistency.

What they're talking about can be seen here, the southern jet in red and northern arm in black:

 

Both these jets phase over the ne USA helping to develop the deeper low pressure shown in red below.

This is important as this effects the movement of the PV lobe, generaly in these situations as the low then phases with that it causes  a pivot action which helps to pull that lobe further to the nw. The amplification ahead of the low develops that little high in black. Ideally we want the low even more amplified than the ECM but its a start.

 

It all points to week two being a good one, as hinted at by most runs, aside from a rogue one here an there as to be expected. Before all that we at least have a day or two of Northerly influence as we hit 2019.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

3rd of Jan from the METO, how does this align to GFS/ECM. 

And is this Mogreps ? 

1

I'd say the HP is slowly edging North and West there as broadly expected by myself and many other knowledgeable folks. The GFS runs will likely only be right in 1 in 4 of their daily runs with the 12z and 0z being the most reliable, not sure people jump all over them, to be honest.