gottolovethisweather
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Posts posted by gottolovethisweather
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The word for today in the model outlook is...... FURNACE, aye, aye Captain Shortwave. The heat is on! I'm expecting upgrades to media forecasts covering a range of Maximum temperatures nearer to 35/36c as I previously mentioned, likely equating to 21-23c overnight minimums in the extreme instances. Not my cup of tea, that sort of setup, but it is what it is and the weather will do, what it does and does do extremes a lot these days.
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16 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Good evening folks....! Looks like some very interesting weather for next week as the the Atlantic fires up against some hot continental air ......Models really struggling with this scenario but potential Fireworks and flash flooding making the news next week rather than the heat. ....Watch this space....
66Or BOTH.
35 to 36c on the cards for a one or two locations I'd suggest. Much respect to SM for highlighting this probability with one of his rare summer forays into the forum, way back earlier this month.
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14 minutes ago, Alderc said:
I know its a consequence of living in generally one of the most boring and temperate climates in the world but just like our lack of ability to cope in Winter with snow I struggle to understand how the farming industry struggles with climatic conditions outside the long term norm in summer. While comparisons can't be made with Spanish/Italian climates there are parts of France/Germany etc which produce similar crops and graze the same livestock but have to deal with periods of much hotter, drier conditions than this is summer is currently handing and cope perfectly well. Is it a lack of investment in irrigation etc?
It is the longevity of the dryness that is the problem as far as I know. Everything in nature is thirsty, all crops and livestock need a constant supply. Plus, these days the extremes don't lend themselves to a situation which helps farming or nature in general. It is a very different climate and world to that of 1976, think overpopulated lands and the problems these bring with them and you'll see what I mean. A few hours of steady prolonged light to moderate rainfall over all parts of the UK right now would be most helpful but that will not be happening any day soon. Still, enjoy the weather for what it is, I say, a memorable summer and one for the record books.
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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Some knee jerk reactions this morning..the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks good again for a high pressure build from the azores during next week with the south looking increasingly fine and warm...the GEFS 00z mean indicates the same!
4Looking increasingly fine and warm where cloud cover dissipates, .@Frosty. As far as I know, this is what the backbiting and snide remarks revolve around (not from you personally as you're above all that). Past history and over numerous occasions in recent weeks, it has remained cloudy, murky or of a similar description and cool for most of the day. Which of course, contrasts deeply with what was actually forecast for a specific location, i.e. sunny and warm. I have travelled widely in southern England during this timeframe for my job and the forecast was a bust on numerous occasions. Don't take the model outputs as SAID, some forecasts WILL be wide off the mark, yet most will hopefully get the dry, sunny and warm weather they deserve. Be careful out and about in Storm Hector tomorrow and overnight, people.
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9 minutes ago, Matthew. said:
It’s all about where the centre of the high is bringing enormous amounts of sunshine too. In the last week the pattern has developed a strong Scandinavia high with no Azores high linking over the U.K. so instead we end up with northern blocking to the northeast with bags of cloud moving over the North Sea in the flow. Great for Ireland and northwestern parts though
And link that to additional daytime detritus from overnight storms (which have been pretty ferocious and amazing to boot for May) and it is a gloomfest for parts inland as well.
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On 24/05/2018 at 17:58, gottolovethisweather said:
I noted such forecasts on the Beeb were routinely skipped past in favour of the more important weekend forecasts, but a forecast FAIL is a forecast #FAIL whichever whey they choose to paint it. See my post below for more on this total shambles of a forecast, which could indeed recur itself in the coming days. Not wanting to pee on the chips for people, this forthcoming weekend, but IF and when the crud comes in, you should drop your expected forecast maximums by some MARGIN, that would be my advice, as witnessed today in Newbury and many other parts down South.
This was a requote of my own understanding of the forecast synoptics six days back and the threat of it becoming a recurring setup. Well, it turned out to be very accurate, not that I begrudge others of plentiful sunshine or storms.
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24 minutes ago, Matthew. said:
Parts of Norway/Sweden warmer Spain at the moment as they’re experiencing northern blocking with a trough underneath
Yes, saw that on the Beeb earlier. Weird weather patterns and from Tamara's post up thread and that of seasoned others, not a lot of change in the coming days. Whilst, risking another moan, I urge people not to use specifics such as lovely, gorgeous or whatever in their postings as clearly, unless the cloud actually clears, regional differences will be vast. Frosty's quote "the devil will be in the detail" could have been in use for many days of late and is most pertinent, given the endless gloom descended on Newbury the last few days.
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2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:
I always the political threads were the place for pointless point scoring....seems I was mistaken.............
Modelling both hi-res and medium res infers a summery outlook with potential for both unusually high temperatures in favoured spots as well as the potential for both home-grown surface based and imported elevated thunderstorms especially for southern districts....The concern re. the latter is decaying storms can morph into rather more mundane dynamic rainfall....time will tell
2Far from point-scoring if I'm honest, just differences of opinions and additional confusion, whilst, the back and forth conversations are probably best left off the forum, I think we all agree. My post requoted below kickstarted some of the discussions on this quiet weather day, I merely mentioned the vast differences between forecasted expectations and the actual weather received. The BBC forecasts and not simply their own were some 8 to 10c short of what was originally expected, only this morning. I noted such forecasts on the Beeb were routinely skipped past in favour of the more important weekend forecasts, but a forecast FAIL is a forecast #FAIL whichever whey they choose to paint it. See my post below for more on this total shambles of a forecast, which could indeed recur itself in the coming days. Not wanting to pee on the chips for people, this forthcoming weekend, but IF and when the crud comes in, you should drop your expected forecast maximums by some MARGIN, that would be my advice, as witnessed today in Newbury and many other parts down South.
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18 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Another poor May day? For the 2007 bank holiday temperatures around here were struggling to above 8C on the Monday with non stop heavy rain.
So where is the downgrade?, if you are expecting more for the month of May you are never going to be happy. Yes there will be storms but a lot of sunshine too but I think you are taking far too much of a negative slant on things.711c and cloudy, is a bleddy big downgrade if you ask me. Anyway, moving on............
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Cloudy and 11c currently here in Newbury, forecasted maximum temperature, 22c. So, in terms of the BH weekend, if clag remains all day (perhaps unlikely) in a few specific locations, it WILL be pretty grim all things considered, whilst others lap up the heat! That's the UK for you though. A difficult forecast when modelling outputs and forecasters' opinions against the ACTUAL reality differ at such short-ranges. Time will tell but here's hoping, most will see decent weather.
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60mm level snow cover in Newbury, so not bad considering we were very much on the Eastern extremities of the main event. More to come, perhaps? Before the long slow thaw sets in. What a fascinating way to start Meteorological spring whatever you might think of it all. Take care all.
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37 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:
Worth noting that the 00z, 06z and now 12z GEFS is building back +ve height anomalies to our north and north-west beyond day 10. Indicative of the second tropospheric response to the stratospheric warming.
If there is any breakdown, it won't be a long one.
Oh stained glass window, so might say the local sheep farmer or grower, I reckon.
For those who haven't read it, this is worthy of a quick read, it discusses February 1962 here, which in fairness bears well for next winter as it'll be even more brutal perhaps (should you like it that way).
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43 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:
Judging by the NW radar, I'm expecting the squall to hit about 11 pm here in Newbury, so may stay up and listen to the gusts and the horizontal rain hitting the windows.
Blown through here now, came through about 10:45 pm, nothing much to it as a few others have stated, looks like its pepping up again as it rushes down the M4 towards London and holding itself together better nearer the South Coast.
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Judging by the NW radar, I'm expecting the squall to hit about 11 pm here in Newbury, so may stay up and listen to the gusts and the horizontal rain hitting the windows.
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Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:
850s are not really impacted by diurnal temperature changes over a short period of time.
I would like to see more widespread -10c 850s though.
Thanks, that clears that up. I do feel in some circumstances these charts could be misinterpreted as being more extreme than the reality, kind of why I stick with the daily runs and generally ignore them aside from looking at the global picture. Thanks again, @Radiating Dendrite.
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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:
192hrs ECM
This chart, for instance, is one which I'd pull out as an example of what I'm rambling about in my post above. These show overnight 850s rather than daytime, hence they would be much colder at midnight, than midday, given clear skies and other appropriate conditions.
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Considering I said this back on the 29th December, I'm happy with how things have panned out, albeit if my thoughts do transpire to that currently forecast which is some blocky HP influence post this unsettled rather stormy period we're currently enduring. The difference by the middle of January will likely be weather fronts attempting to push in from the Atlantic bringing the potential for snow to many locations as they try to push their way through against the cold air in-situ.
"By about D10 I anticipate the Atlantic ridging to have a greater effect on our shores eventually bringing some drier weather around before a change to something different once again my the middle of January."
A side note, a real novice-y question, but I assume the ECM 0z operational outputs actually refer to the forecast conditions at that hour, ie. the forecast conditions at midnight our time each set of runs, so, therefore, project overnight 850s and the like. Begs the question, do all other charts do the same and also when referencing such charts, we all need to be mindful of this? As I said, I guess I've answered my own doubts here but it, therefore, proves the only way of seeing the model's progression through time is by comparing like with like. 0x with 0z 850s, 12z with 12z etc.
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Yuk.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-12-30&lat=51.401&lon=-1.3216
Roll on the colder wintry interludes during 2018. Happy New Year all.
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Two shorter-term dates for the diaries, as the ones to watch (assuming you are in cold snow-loving camp).
- Wednesday 3rd January
- Friday 5th January
Before that, a fair bit of "everything bar the kitchen sink".
Have a great New Year all.
By about D10 I anticipate the Atlantic ridging to have a greater effect on our shores eventually bringing some drier weather around before a change to something different once again my the middle of January.
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32 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
The GFS again showing a very mobile N/W flow with plenty waves of cold air passing over the UK bringing cool/cold sometimes wintry and windy with severe gales for some especially the North. Not looking bad at all as we head into January I don't think..
Good news. Ridge/Depression/Ridge and Rain/Sleet/Snow all in the mix alongside some drier spells as we head into 2018 then. Happy with that, as I'm not one to set my targets too high. Despite my doubts, when going off to bed yesterday evening with Air Temperature at 6.5c, we even ended up with a temporary accumulation of snow in Costa Del Newbury, so who knows what might come our way soon.
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10 to 15mm level slushy snow in the end as measured at 9am, slowly melting but no complaints here. Looked a lot more, on the grass and roofs, to be fair but as in my post, any snow is good snow these days.
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Pleased as punch. Amazeballs, it's been a long time coming.
Sitting at the pc last evening 6.5c, so said no way. Now I have lying snow and a few cm at that. Will have to check the diary to see when that last happened.
Others will have been damn unlucky in this region to at least have seen a few flakes.
Take care all.
For those who haven't read it, this is worthy of a quick read, it discusses February 1962 here, which in fairness bears well for next winter as it'll be even more brutal perhaps (should you like it that way).
By about D10 I anticipate the Atlantic ridging to have a greater effect on our shores eventually bringing some drier weather around before a change to something different once again my the middle of January.
Model output discussion - summer rolls on
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by gottolovethisweather
I agree. The tv forecasts for today showing 32c or perhaps 33c as a maximum temperature and with no let up in the reliable, 34c or 35c will surely be reachable, most likely on Wednesday or Thursday. Short-term upgrades in temperatures are often unforeseen in the NWP outputs for whatever reason, the same goes for extreme minimums in winter to my mind. As for next week and beyond, I'll leave that to the others.