gottolovethisweather

Hello all, I hear there's some storm prospects potentially developing, within the reliable timezone, judging by the NW main headline and also having listened to Tomasz Schafernaker's (top guy!) BBC forecast a couple of times which backs this up. I apologise if this has been done to death, but I need to catch up on the posts today. I'm also curious whether RJS and others had their January forecast one moon phase out, see the post in the Winter LRF thread duplicated below, it's strangely accurate, however I'm sure RJS actually meant the Full Moon 28th February , did he not!

Hello fellow SCE'rs. Don't give up just yet on this cold spell, I've got a feeling there's a surprise or two or three for (4) a few before the winter's over. It seems plausible more proper SNOW could be coming our way real soon within the realiable, say >72-96hrs out as its getting messy out there. Perhaps I feel lying SNOW maybe an outsider but outsiders can win. Anyway ignore my ramblings and check out the MO and other discussion threads as things look like getting interesting and spring is being delayed for sure, like it or not! Over and Out. STORMBOY

Hello. Please forgive me as I've not read much of this thread just recently but is there not a battle developing above our heads right now between cold and a slightly milder airmass. I say this as when listening to the shipping forecast on R4 at 5.55 and subsequently a ramping up Nick Miller BBC forecast, they both mention a mixture of rain or snow even over Thames/Portland etc. sea areas in the case of R4 and a look out Thursday development from NM. This is I suppose an IMBY type post but when areas in the south and southwest are potentially going to be effected within the reliable say >72hrs ahead I start getting excited. I don't expect settling snow in my location but the downs locally could well get lucky with a good covering. Also, to prove I have been looking at the latest output the Thursday/Friday GFS 18z output looks really good for SNOW but maybe some more experienced posters will temper my enthusiasm and drop me back down to earth. Whatever, no 10c maxes anywhere real soon so 70+ days of sub 10's and more snow falling days iin the offing keep me and i'm sure others entertained. Snowy Regards STORMBOY

Well it's another snow day here in Newbury. Judging by the NW radar could there yet be time for some proper stuff later this pm? All too wet though but the trends are there, dropping dp etc. now off to the model discussion thread again. Sleety Cheers STORMBOY

Hello again fellow SCE'ers Whilst it's not quite what I was expecting, but in my interpretation of the latest GFS output, as well as awaiting more knowledgeable input on this. In the timeframe, 72 hours from now it's possible there could be an interesting event in development? okay, so it's always anticipated more snow the further southeast you are but who knows, nowcasting and lamppost watching could be in order by Wednesday. Also, I have a funny feeling that a covering could well catch one or two folk out as if you check out the latest radar captures, is something there already? Just need the dewpoints to fall and an event of sorts (perhaps rather mediocre) may well occur before Wednesday. Edit 1.8c DP and falling, keep going son as the uppers are coming. Chilly Cheers STORMBOY

Oh well. Hello, Posting again in order to stop the confusion. While many folk on here, especially lurkers (normally including myself) are contemplating the pub run of the GFS and what it has to offer up to 16 days out, I suggest they/you take on board some of the last few comments on the cold discussion , which I feel are very appropriate indeed. Whoops I meant the MODEL MOODS THREAD, apologies IMO it still applies though to our model output obsession. I'm very much liking the GFS out to T+72, oh yes. STORMBOY

Hello, Posting again in order to stop the confusion. While many folk on here, especially lurkers (normally including myself) are contemplating the pub run of the GFS and what it has to offer up to 16 days out, I suggest they/you take on board some of the last few comments on the cold discussion , which I feel are very appropriate indeed. Whoops I meant the MODEL MOODS THREAD, apologies IMO it still applies though to our model output obsession. I'm very much liking the GFS out to T+72, oh yes. STORMBOY

Wow, you have been blessed with the white stuff and anyway for Portsmouth, snow sure has to be a rarity so any days with snow cover is something. Mind you, most years in Newbury I have to head up to the local downs to see the best of the snow too. Storms, particularly continental type with vivid lightning is definitely my favourite too, so I am indeed a true stormboy All the best for the days a coming SLB and other lurkers out there. STORMBOY

LS, I love those charts, are they free on Netweather or are they subscription only? They certainly show some detail on them. Back to the models, the forum overload is kicking in so I reckon the cold spell is getting into the system already. The GFS runs had potential yesterday evening all the way through into FI on the 21st, Jay Wynne hinted on the BBC that something snowy could be on the way for Wednesday, I wonder? Now I better catch up on the latest. STORMBOY

Hello all south central southerners. This winter has sure been odd, the best in my 30+ years that this boy can remember, as whatever happens in the final 3 weeks ahead it will be remembered well by myself. (my english grammar sounds like its given up!) Anyway, my data thus far in Newbury suggests that the 9th December was the last date to achieved 10c in terms of temperature. 17 days whereby I have seen falling from the sky since 1st December. 18 days with more than 50% snow cover on the ground since 1st December. Can anyone beat that in our region? any takers. I don't like bragging but I think it's worth bearing these facts out as after the forthcoming spell, the clock will be ticking. Now i'll pop over to the MO discussion to see what the guys n gals think is going to happen with part 3 of the cold winter outbreak of 2009/2010. Snow or no snow I don't mind as long as I keep the raging zonality away from the doorstep for now Chilly Cheers STORMBOY

Thankyou Barb and Mr AltoStratus

Yes indeed I'm loving this very special winter, IMBY last 10c+ max was back on the 9th December, amazing for modern winters! Anyways, what's 'MOGREPS NAE' and is it free to view on NW. Cheers STORMBOY

Spot on I reckon. The salting of roads could be the least of our problems once again, especially if the over-populated south gets hit again. Some impressive theories in here and only time will tell I suppose. I must admit some folk have an uncanny knack of being bang right on the timing when it comes to our understanding of climate's intracies (?) however. NAO/AO's, QBO's MMW's all go over my head but RESPECT is due to the good folk such as you who are rarely wrong and when you/they are, more importantly, you EXPLAIN why it did not hit the target. Alternatively you could read the Daily Mail, who are never wrong, so I wonder how long before the headline 'SIBERIAN BLAST approaching' appears Wintry Cheers STORMBOY

Hi, I've crossposted this here as I'm hoping for some expert opinion on this and boy, its gone mad in the MO discussion Hello, I know nothing about all the intracies of these runs but similar outcomes to what many folk are posting have appeared on several occasions in the last few days so I suppose it's plausible the big beast could be coming. I must admit I used the GFS thickness runs, 500/1000's etc. for trend spotting in the last cold spell and they seemed accurate enough and eventually were bang on. What do GP,TEITS,Nick F etc. think is a sensible timeframe from which to get excited at this rate, T96 maybe? also what's your models/charts of choice to best indicate what to expect at the surface, come the reliable timeframe. Loving the thrill of the chase of East meets West either way Resized to 28% (was 48 x 27) - Click image to enlarge Cheers STORMBOY

Hello, I know nothing about all the intracies of these runs but similar outcomes to what many folk are posting have appeared on several occasions in the last few days so I suppose it's plausible the big beast could be coming. I must admit I used the GFS thickness runs, 500/1000's etc. for trend spotting in the last cold spell and they seemed accurate enough and eventually were bang on. What do GP,TEITS,Nick F etc. think is a sensible timeframe from which to get excited at this rate, T96 maybe? also what's your models/charts of choice to best indicate what to expect at the surface, come the reliable timeframe. Loving the thrill of the chase of East meets West either way Cheers STORMBOY

Hello slb. You may have to close those windows, although I think it will miss you there, there's a big lump of cloud to your NE, go have a look! That was what dumped a little on my area earlier. I'm keeping my eyes peeled to my NNW for a hour or so's time and who knows what could happen later on tonight and into the weekend There's even a polar low being watched closely out in the northern part of the north sea evidently. STORMBOY

Crossposted this to the cold discussion. A heavy shower just skirted us here in Newbury, Berkshire but remarkably is how my temps took a nosedive. At 14:45 Air Temp was 4.6c and DP 2.1c then at 15:00 they were 3.0c/0.4c respectively. Also it started horizontally snowing at the time of the first observation. Now just 10 minutes later, the AT is 2.5c and DP 0.3c so continuing to slowly fall and judging by the radar, could a surprise covering be on offer by evening time. Loving this northerly already. STORMBOY

A heavy shower just skirted us here in Newbury, Berkshire but remarkably is how my temps took a nosedive. At 14:45 Air Temp was 4.6c and DP 2.1c then at 15:00 they were 3.0c/0.4c respectively. Also it started horizontally snowing at the time of the first observation. Now just 10 minutes later, the AT is 2.5c and DP 0.3c so continuing to slowly fall and judging by the radar, a surprise covering maybe on offer by evening time. Loving this northerly already. STORMBOY

Many Thanks Chionomaniac. I think a lot of that will go over my head but I get the gist of it, plus it's well written for folk like me to understand. Mr Chiono, what is your current take on the rest of winter according to the models/ensembles etc.? I'm always keen to learn and understand our climate nuances as I'm sure, are many a lurker in here. Maybe the next Laura Tobin or Michael Fish is reading these threads as we speak, so keep it together guys. Cheers STORMBOY

Hello NSSC and others. I love the thrill of this chase we are having with these models, will it, won't it etc. and after so much fun for coldies already in the bag we want more. Anyway, geting to the point of my post is, please can you define MMW as by searching the web all I can find is something to do with "millimetre waves" Please can you answer in basic plain english terms and i'll see if can learn something. Once again all the top posters are in here so keep it up guys n gals! In my interpretation and others , also by studying the wonderful NW charts etc. I'm thinking that no WARMTH until at least mid february is on the cards, WOW take that raging zonality. Wintry Cheers STORMBOY

Agreed, very impressive. STORMBOY

Also posted to my regional to my regional thread so apologise mods. Well I wasn't expecting to measure 15mm level snow at 9am this morning when I was observing the weather station b4 going to bed last night. The temperature last evening had risen to 4.1c from a previous low of 3.2c just a couple of hours earlier and the Dewpoint having risen similarly. Now I'm watching snow merrily falling only 9 or so hours later. Perfect conditions now for wet snow, 0.5c AT and 0.1c DP so the temperature has really plummeted since dawn. Well done MO and BBC as whould not have been a easy situation to 2nd guess. Snowy Cheers yet again. STORMBOY Do the more knowledgeable believe I witnessed the warm front passing last night as I cannot understand what was happening at the time.

Hello all snowlovers. Well I wasn't expecting to measure 15mm level snow at 9am this morning when I was observing the weather station b4 going to bed last night. The temperature last evening had risen to 4.1c from a previous low of 3.2c just a couple of hours earlier and the Dewpoint having risen similarly. Now I'm watching snow merrily falling only 9 or so hours later. Perfect conditions now for wet snow, 0.5c AT and 0.1c DP so the temperature has really plummeted since dawn. Well done MO and BBC as whould not have been a easy situation to 2nd guess. Snowy Cheers yet again. STORMBOY

Not sure, but I would guess every migratory species/all seabirds etc. as of course they spend most of their living life feeding/flying in earth's atmosphere Still loving the models, the battles seem to be going on and on, tooing and froing just like the arguing labourites and tories. Always learning from you guys/gals in here. Cheers STORMBOY

Also posted to my regional discussion, however I would like people's thoughts on this upcoming event? Hello all. IMHO, I thought the trend (last few hours) for a snow event from tomorrow's event was looking promising according to my weather station data, however what is happening now? Air Temp had dropped to 3.2c from day max of 6.8c with equivalent DewPoint dropping down to 2.5c at the same time (8pm). So as in the MO discussion, it's all about trends and here I was, many hours from the event, happily awaiting some good action. However, as I type (9.30pm) AT is now 3.7c and DP a measly 3.1c so I feel the high ground is all that's gonna get it in nearly all of our region. The cold air needs to undercut pretty quickly now otherwise many snow wishers are going to be out of luck. the good thing is that the Air pressure does seem to be bombing somewhat so who knows, could this help the intensity somewhat Roll on the weekend and see what develops then maybe. What's the top guy's/gal's opinion on the coming snow or rain event, ok maybe it's a nowcast event or am I on to something? STORMBOY