gottolovethisweather

Hello all. IMHO, I thought the trend (last few hours) for a snow event from tomorrow's event was looking promising according to my weather station data, however what is happening now? Air Temp had dropped to 3.2c from day max of 6.8c with equivalent DewPoint dropping down to 2.5c at the same time (8pm). So as in the MO discussion, it's all about trends and here I was, many hours from the event, happily awaiting some good action. However, as I type (9.30pm) AT is now 3.7c and DP a measly 3.1c so I feel the high ground is all that's gonna get it in nearly all of our region. The cold air needs to undercut pretty quickly now otherwise many snow wishers are going to be out of luck. the good thing is that the Air pressure does seem to be bombing somewhat so who knows, could this help the intensity somewhat Roll on the weekend and see what develops then maybe.

Indeed, a lovely chart in what may well be a sign of things, so I was not so far out in my Bittern invasion theory either then. I wonder if the models should and subsequently the forecasters incorporate mass migration movements be it the wildebeest, painted lady butterflies, 260+ % increase in numbers of fieldfares n redwings etc. Nature has to react to conditions in their backyard and move ahead, also ultimately if the atmospehric conditions follow them it will eventually help them back to whence they came. Now back to the models as I fear this will be binned, I must admit GFS 850's seqeunce did not look favourable for coldies when I looked earlier this pm. So gut feeling suggest the east may still see the beast for a few days and then raging zonality enevitable maybe a few days on down the line. Off to measure the last of my snow cover. Good discussions guys n gals. STORMBOY

Agreed, is it true that models use the interpreation of the 'here and now' to indicate and generate forecasts down the line, if I'm right with that in mind all models will be better equipped to deal with winter blasts from the east in future. Especially as we have had 2 winters in a row differing much from the recent modern winters. I think your sign is the split jet being hinted at the charts come Sunday allowing a subesequent easterly to build or maybe it's the fact I have had 26 different bird species in my suburban garden in Newbury. Of course then there are unusual number of bitterns about the country. Ok, back to the models, put us out of our misery TEITS. Sorry about the slightly OT post earlier GMG STORMBOY

Indeed. It's only the 13th January and so far to go with this winter whatever the rest of it does. Ain't it strange to pull the curtains back every morning of every day to see the thick snow laying on the ground. makes me want to get the Rochester Ginger out and maybe a brandy after getting home from work of course, when you can get there that is, anyhows today's a day off so I better get reading up again. I'm posting so much now, I thought i'd never come out of the closet STORMBOY

Now that last bit I do believe could well happen. Whether it holds true for me, who is to say but the further north and east then game on. I think i'll be lucky to see 5c by the weekend in my location, what are the various models indicating in regard to Air Temp and DP profiles come the weekend? The focus is definitely on the next 48-72 hours in my eyes and my bet is the reload, like it or not and purely gut feeling I suppose here. Is the upcoming period as previously set in stone as many suggest, again can someone with the knowledge confirm the expected temp profiles, I'll go check the models in the meantime. Many Thanks to RJS, TEITS, JH, GP, SM etc. for their input in the days past and the days to come. I'm loving this winter and it's got to be worth documenting for the history books. STORMBOY

Hello Joneseye. I leave near Wash Common down the valley road estate and are often prone to colder spells with snow, ice and frost even when the town centre has rain for example. The 10cm I measured at 9am was more like 9cm but whatever, it now amounts to double the amount lying i.e approx 8 inches level cover compared to the previous 6 inches that had thawed to 4 inches. I'm AdamAnt that snow will most likely still be on the ground (well certainly locally it will) just in time for the cold reload after the weekend. But heck, what do I know? Cheers STORMBOY PS the DP has finally reached above zero in the last hour here.

Well, still it snows (11 hours and counting) here in Newbury. 190mm i.e nearly 8 inches laying snow at 9am so I'm heading into my 8th continuous day of snow cover on top of the 8 continous days I had prior to Xmas. Not so good for those attempting to get to work as the additional 4 inches or so we had overnight is laying thick on the roads too. Still looking good here in my eyes. Very lucky that it is my day off today. Snowy Cheers STORMBOY PS awaiting the anticipated reload after the weekend, its not ending yet!

You just want want want. You'll look back at this winter and say that STORMBOY remained so positive through the 90+ days of snow cover and frozen surfaces. STORMBOY Now 0c and 999.1mb with same -0.7c dewpoint. Don't forget this nowcasting is the key and well was it another 18 hours of precip yet, here?

Nice one, good for you. There will be many memories for folk down south from this winter 2009/10. Me myself, now having had 15 days of snow cover I beieve and expecting many days yet! STORMBOY Not sure about staying off work, well I'm off anyhow, but all these coastal reports of snow are fantastic for the folk slightly further north. Stormforce what's it like there. Some in here might have to measure the top up in the morning methinks, inches of it (you can but hope) STORMBOY

Is the wind up prior to the spud or after the spud. Should have beans with that. Is it or is it not a good winter this one and still only 12th January, I ain't forget this one in a mcflurry. Right, weather report. AT 0.1c keeps falling, DP -0.8c better still for snow, Barometer steady at 999.2mb so the snow will still be here on Saturday for the Polar one methinks. STORMBOY I gotta go look at this. OMG! STORMBOY

Some of the heaviest stuff currently in the south is knocking on my door in Newbury according to NW radar so another inch or so would be good in the next 10-20 minutes me hopes? STORMBOY

Come back to Newbury, snowing well here for last 1/2 hour on top of the 100mm already settled. STORMBOY

Yeah, well who knows but I got an inkling about having more than a sprinkling in my neck of the woods, you're not too far away according to the radar but its painfully slow moving east, however I regard that as uesful if it is to generate more. Cheers STORMBOY

That is good news, will help us all that will. The 'stupid snow' bit that is. STORMBOY I mean that sincerely given that you are virtually on/near the coast and hence further south.

It's started again. Light snow now falling and settling, I expect many hours to come but how heavily it comes down, who knows. Of course, i'm talking specifically for my area (Newbury) so I wonder what I will measure by morning (8 continous days of snow cover at 9am by then) Keep your eyes on your temps, dp's and air pressure, there may well be a surprise for a few good folk in here yet according to the radar and latest online bits n pieces. I still hear no singing fat lady yet but she's knocking on the door. AT 0.3c, DP -0.7c and AP 999.2mb falling slowly, ideal for buckets of the stuff STORMBOY

Yes, the deep intense COLD is sending the wimpy WET n miserably MILD airmass back to whence it came, the 2010 ice age winter NEVER really left. Of course, a totally this is a totally inappropriate post as the models suggest otherwise (no before you ask I'm not digging any particular folk on NW as it's all lighthearted) and I've also been on the drink, hic hic Currently the NW radar shows it stalling and going nowhere as suggested, my Air Pressure is 1000mb falling slowly, AT 0.3c and DP -0.6c so everythings setup for SNOW but well.... whatever happens will happen. Good ole mother Nature, STORMBOY

Oh god, I think the front is currently stalling south of the M4 corridor upon checking the NW radar returns. Personally I think the southwest and west are already going top get loads more, lucky/unlucky blighters. Cheers STORMBOY

Thanks very much John, clearly put to someone who needs it in plain english. Of course, this is clearly a reason why many folk would never post in here, fear of coming across as stupid, whether its relevant and of course, possibly potentially an embarassing episode. Thanks for saving my blushes. I do truly believe with all the media coverage, continuous snow cover over many parts of the u.k. currently, the u.k. has introduced many many newbies onto the art of weather discussion and all its theories etc. Again, many Thanks. STORMBOY

Hello all, I don't really know which section I should post my query in so I've plumped fo this one. Anyway, concerning the more immediate period say, next 24-36 hours isn't it somewhat unusual for a low pressure system (the one heading towards Ireland as we speak) taking the route indicated by the following link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html truly bizzare Can someone, confirm how often such a thing could happen and why is taking that route back to Greenland and maybe even back to the US. My personal take on it is that block is currently too strong? Confused and intrigued STORMBOY

Cheers Nick, just what I was after. It certainly appears it can't happen as I hoping as for one thing it's not forecast to be deep enough anyhow. Many Thanks STORMBOY

Hi Nick, In my stupidity I believe I am actually about 1000 miles out with my interpretation of the track of the low according to the MO sequence I've seen, so still learning here. Can you post a couple of charts for us please. Cheers STORMBOY

Ummm. No, in one word, I just lurk and try to pick up on what they say, what I think may happen, study charts, follow my Davis Weather Station's live data, listen to fellow weather nut friends/relatives opinions and THEN mix it all together with my own gut feeling. What is a shortwave, a secondary? Also, I think I have made a big 'mistake' by suggesting a low diving south-eastwards as the MO chart show the deep low heading northwards along the western periphery and heading to iceland so I can make out. As I mentioned in the big boys room, the MO Discussion thread. Cheers STORMBOY

SLB, Do you still have lying snow in Portsmouth or has it long since gone Regards STORMBOY

Indeed, although I haven't looked at the said model what if...... the low pressure went steaming along the channel or even dived south-eastwards into France, just like some of often talked winter synoptics of the past. Why do I mention the above, well having read Robert Stirling's book of British Weather, many episodes of a similar breakdown event have down just that in the past. The models aren't getting a grip so the next 24-36 hours at the ones to watch short term, methinks Pure guesswork on my behalf, what do the top guys think, GP, TEITS, JH, anyone? I reckon we should have a Tracking the Low thread for tomorrow. Whatever, the past few weeks have been interesting and unusual, the future looks interesting too. STORMBOY