firefly

Yes, the snow at 220m is remarkable. It may now be gone, but I've got someone going up to look at it today, so will post back whether it has survived thus far. Funnily enough, travellers in the 19th century did allude to this location (without actually naming it) as holding snow into summer. It was described as a hollow "300 feet deep...near Alva". Unquestionably the Silver Glen location. Adam Watson and I are writing a book about historical evidence of more snow in Britain between the 17th century and early 20th century, and this forms a small part of our research.

Norrance is quite right! There's waaaaaaaay too much snow in the Highlands just now to start a meaningful thread on the subject. That's why I've started one (as I did last year) on Winterhighland for southern Scotland/northern England. If there's sufficient interest on here to do the same then I'd be delighted to follow it and add to it. Failing that, keep up-to-date with the snow reports on WH. The situation at present is that snow is still persisting in large quantities on the Lake District hills, northern Pennines and Southern Uplands of Scotland. In addition, Wales is still holding onto snow at Snowdon and Carnedd Llewelyn: possibly other places. An excellent site for this is here: http://www.llansadwr...k/ice/snow.html The wreaths, this year almost exclusively facing W/SW/S, are a result of large northerly/north-easterly storms over the winter. The best example of this is the huge wreath still clearly visible from the M6 that is sitting below the summit of Cross Fell. This wreath, still convex, is hundreds of metres long. It will without doubt last into June. Who knows, if the weather remains cool then we could even be looking at July. Highly unusual. As of the weekend, the Ochils in Scotland were still holding onto a tiny bit of snow in Silver Glen, here. An incredibly low altitude of 220m! The Peak District lost its last snow on the 5th May, so far as we can tell.

Whoops! Must put this thread on 'tracking' mode... Let me give you the answer that my good friend and colleague Adam Watson gave in another thread on Winterhighland: "Of course none of us can be sure about anything until the main spring thaw has exposed the locations and sizes of snow wreaths. That's an exciting sight every year, but I think will be more anticipated in 2010 than usual <...> but since mid December I've thought 2010 is unlikely to be a top year for autumn snowbeds. Firefly and I agreed this when he came to Deeside and the Mearns in late December. First, a long snowy winter is not necessarily conducive to unusually many late snowbeds. This is particularly the case if most snowfall comes on north winds, or easterly such as this winter (predominantly NE and SE, though there has been some substantial snowfall and drifting from NW and other directions). Firefly makes this point well. Most long-lying snowbeds face NE, to a lesser extent E or SE. The deepest corries and other holes face these directions, associated with glaciers in the last glaciation occurring on these aspects and forming these corries and holes. Deep holes that face NE are shaded from the sun for much of the day, and crucially in the afternoon, when the sun has warmed air to its maximum for the day. Although many hollows and some corries face W or SW or NW, they are fewer and usually much shallower. Their topography affords little shade from sun during the warm part of the day, and snow depth cannot be massive because the hollow is too shallow. In 1996 most snowfalls came from SE and there were huge wreaths in June and July on NW-facing slopes, but the deep NE-facing holes had less than usual, and in the end no patches survived. One of the last patches was at the March Burn on Ben Macdui, huge in July, but of course it faces west and melted rapidly in warm sunshine in afternoons. Braemar had 60 days with snow in 1958-59, well above its winter average, and it was a snowy winter in Glen Esk of Angus, but I recall extremely rapid loss of snow by sublimation in Glen Esk, and in the end no snowbeds survived in Scotland, the first time I'd seen this. I think Doug makes a very good point about the lack of wind this winter. Although much drifting occurred with the recent storm, earlier snowfalls were marked by little wind and remarkably uniform undrifted powder. Although much of the earlier snowfalls were later shifted by wind, this is not like an initial storm, because much of the blowing snow has been lost by sublimation. As Firefly points out, a top year for autumn snowbeds ideally requires deep Atlantic depressions with heavy precipitation on gales from SW or nearby such as S and W and NW, when much of the precipitation on lowland is rain or sleet. This is especially so for Lochaber, but important everywhere. We may of course yet see it in March or April or May, but the long-range forecast of a strong anticyclone till at least 20 March is good for skiers and climbers, but not for long-lying snow patches! The Met Office say this is the coldest snowiest winter in Scotland since 1962-63, and that accords with my experience in NE Scotland. The snowfalls of 62-63 came on predominantly SE winds. Have a look at Firefly's archive of snow-patch photos, search for 1963, and you should see my photos of Garbh Choire Mor in late September, with 4 smallish patches. In the end, only three of them survived." The thread this was taken from in WH is here.

Indeed. However, you don't have to imagine too hard to see it. Below is a picture from the 22nd August 2008 at Ben Nevis, where myself and Blair Fyffe are shown beside the existing snow at Observatory Gully. We estimated the depth at 10m.

Ah, yes. Perhaps I should've made that clearer. 780m of descent was ski-ed in August 1967.

No records exist (that I am aware of) which give the maximum depth of snow for the Scottish mountains. However, from photographs I have studied of Garbh Choire Mor, and from being there at first hand, I would say that the snow in the photograph from 1951 is in the region of 20-25m deep. Observatory Gully on Ben Nevis will, I believe, carry as much snow as this during snowy winters. This is only speculative, but I believe these figures will be fairly accurate.

Well done, TM! I'm not sure where you get your figures from, but if the March and May figures are correct then that would explain why so much snow fell. The patches that remained in 1967 were the biggest to survive in 1938-2009. At Alltan na Beinne on Beinn a' Bhuird, men skied on 780 m of snow in late August 1967; an incredible amount! As for 1951, this photograph of the Garbh Choire Mor from the 20th April shows the mind-boggling amount of snow present. Adam Watson told me that this is the most amount of snow he had ever seen there.

Stewfox, if you want to read a bit more about the snow patches in Scotland then my Wiki page is a good place to start. Norrance is correct with his assessment of 1976. That year, the the lasting winter snows arrived in the first week in September. Incredibly early. Had they not, the snow at Garbh Choire Mor (Braeriach) would have vanished. In this picture from the 2nd October 1976 you can see the 'old' snow at the bottom, with the new, whiter snow on the top from the falls a month or so previously. Interestingly, the 'old' snow in that photograph dates from 1959, which was the last time it melted completely. Different things affect how late the snow lasts, but the most important factor is the depth of the snow that falls over the winter. It hardly needs to be said that it will take far longer to melt snow of 50ft depth than it will to melt 30ft of depth. By-the-way, these figures are not at all unusual. In my opinion, Observatory Gully of Ben Nevis and Garbh Choire Mor's depths in March-April will exceed 75ft in snowy winters. Most snow that survives will typically be against shady cliffs facing NE or N. This affords protection from summer sun in some instances, but it is not the only factor. Temperature and rainfall also play a part. It's a complicated business! TWS, I'm not sure what the 1967 winter was like (well before I was born), but I will ask Adam Watson. Cheers!

Hi Norrance, There was a paper published in 2002 in "Weather" magazine entitled 'Snow patches lasting until winter in north-east Scotland in 1971-2000' (Adam Watson, Richard W. Davison, John Pottie; Volume 57, Issue 10 , Pages374 - 385). This paper gives each location where snow survived and how often it survived. In addition to this, Adam Watson has a (yet unpublished) paper which gives every location in Scotland (1942-1970 in north-east Scotland, and 1945-2009 for west Scotland) where snow has been known to persist through the year. I have this document, and it's fascinating. Hopefully it'll be published next year. I'm also working with Adam on a paper which seeks to demonstrate the historical evidence of far more snow in the last few centuries than we get now. Again, this should be published next year. 1951 was the year where more patches survived than any other year in 1938-2009 inclusive. That year, 142 patches survived in north-east Scotland, and 9 lay at <900m. We have no similar records for west Scotland, but it is highly likely that many survived. It would not be an exaggeration to say that 200 patches would have survived that year in total: a phenomenal amount. 1967 was also a fantastic year for suvivals, and more recently 1994 and 2000. We are due a bumper year any time soon!

Firstly, thanks to eveyone who's been keeping an eye on this thread. Secondly, this will now be the last post of 2009. Yes, lasting snows have arrived, and some snow patches have indeed survived on Scotland's mountains. In actual fact, lasting snow arrived a few weeks back, but in the absence of heavy snowfall to make 100% sure, we were wary of coming out and declaring it for certain. So, where did snow survive, and how many patches made it? Six patches of snow made it through, in three locations. Three at Observatory Gully on Ben Nevis, two at Garbh Choire Mor on Braeriach, and one at Aonach Beag. The largest patch to survive (in terms of surface area), was on Aonach Beag in the Ben Nevis range (location here, you can zoom in or out). Lasting snow came there on the 8th November, and photographs of a trip made the day after by John Pottie can be found here. Although much smaller this year than 2007 & 2008, it was still larger than any other (approximately 16m x 8m). It has now persisted through three summers/autumns, which has not happened for a long time indeed. Probably since the 1970s. Three patches survived at Observatory Gully on Ben Nevis, and lasting snow arrived there on the 4th November. Alan Halewood's photographfrom that day shows a good cover, with a couple of the small patches buried, but the main one (at the base of the shallow cliffs in the middle of the picture) is still visible. The smallest of these patches would have just survived. The last two, known as Sphinx and Pinnacles (after rock climbs above them), survived at Garbh Choire Mor, Braeriach. These are Britain's longest-lying snows, and lasting snow arrived there on the 1st November. Sphinx patch (always the last to melt in Scotland), has now melted just 5 times in the last 100 years: 1933, 1959, 1996, 2003 & 2006. The short-term trend, therefore, since last melting in 2006 is that of a general upward trend in numbers, with this year dipping slightly. There were 9 in 2007, 12 in 2008 and 6 in 2009. The shockingly wet summer did not, as I feared it might, destroy all the snow. Had the snow not survived in 2007 & 2008 then the rain may have done. The fact that some patches were getting on for 3-years old (and were icy hard) may have given the old snow the resillience to withstand the continual pounding. If anyone has any particular questions on any aspects of what I've written over the months then please post on here and I'll do my best to answer them! Cheers, Iain Cameron

Hi Norrance. It looks very much as though the snow that has fallen in the Cairngorms will be lasting snow for Garbh Choire Mor (see below). . However, the situation is not quite as cut-and-dried as that in the west. Although there is a decent covering on Ben Nevis, there's not enough to say for sure. The charts show, apparently, that there is no appreciable snow on the way. We could be looking at mid-November before we know for sure. That said, there will be next to no melting occurring, and the snow that is still extant is likely to persist.

Can there still be snow from last year on Scotland's mountains?! Surely the recent mild weather, coupled with the monsoon conditions has done for the remaining snow? Happily, due to visits over the course of the last few days by hardy souls, I can report that there are still 6 (possibly 7) patches of snow clinging on for dear life in the Highlands. Firstly, my Ben Nevis buddy Mark Atkinson made a trip on the 28th October to Observatory Gully, where he found the following... The biggest patch was in the region of 9m long, but all the snow is horribly exposed, as you can see from othere pictures here. I visited Aonach Beag on Saturday to find a 19m x 12m x 1m patch. Absolutely rock solid snow there, doubtless because of its age (almost 3-years now). More pictures of my trip are here. Garbh Choire Mor was visited on Saturday the 31st by Davie Duncan, and he reported the snow in good condition, though still melting (albeit slowly). Sphinx patch was 7m x 7.7m x 1.5m, and Pinnacles by 17.9m x 7m x 0.4m. No pictures of that yet, but I'll try and get a couple. Will they all survive? My own view is that the ones longer than 5m will. The only ones in danger (I would guess) are the smaller Observatory Gully patches. The weather forecast this week is for cold weather with snow above 1000m or thereabouts. MWIS predicts, though, that rain may return in time for next weekend. Watch this space...

Lasting snow came to Garbh Choire Mor last year on the 1st October, with Ben Nevis being around 3-weeks later. This year is - obviously - going to be later. I understand the charts are showing cold weather with precipitation coming in during the first week in November. Perhaps someone can clarify that for me? This morning’s temperature on Aonach Mor (around 1 Celcius) is encouraging, as is the temperature on Cairn Gorm (around 2 Celcius). Obviously this will fluctuate over the course of this week, but temperatures in low to mid single figures shouldn’t be catastrophic for at least the larger of the patches. I’m sure the smaller Observatory Gully outliers will suffer, but the two large ones should be OK well into November. I think that Aonach Beag is more at risk, but I still think there is enough there to get a good way into November. I'll be visiting Aonach Beag this weekend coming so I'll update on that. If the snow does arrive during the first week in November then I would expect there to be 5 or 6 survivals. If mild weather drags on through November then we could be looking at just a couple.

Thanks to the efforts of others we now have an excellent record of all remaining snow as of the 18th October. Alan Halewood, the mountain guide, visited Aonach Beag on the 17th to find that the snow is still there, and about 25m long x 15m wide x 2m deep. When you consider this patch was just shy of 50m long on the 22nd of August, it's astonishing to think it's still the size it is. However, it's now smaller than it's been since it last melted in 2006. A good photograph of the snow can be seen here. The snow was rock-solid. Alan said that he could not even get a single finger into the snow, and that he would have needed an ice axe to traverse it. Secondly, absolutely no melting was observed, despite the conditions in the sun being fairly comfortable. Of course, Aonach Beag won't get any sun, and probably hasn't seen any direct sunlight in months (does it get any?!). More pictures from Alan's trip can be found in my flickr archive, here. Also on Saturday the 17th, Attila Kish went up Garbh Choire Mor, Braeriach. He found the snow slightly smaller than when he and I visited on the 26th September, but not by a huge amount. The snow that also fell during the first week in October has filled up the bergschrund and is itself now very hard, having undergone several freeze-thaw cycles. The Sphinx patch (Britain's longest lasting) was 10m wide, and the Pinnacles patch was about 20m long. All pictures of this expidition are here. Feeling energetic, Attila ventured up Observatory Gully the very next day and got some fabulous pictures of the remaining snow there. The notes have dimensions on them, rather than me trot them out here. By my arithmetic, the total length of all snow on the 18th October (no material melting on the 17th due to cold, clear conditions) was 104m, worked out as follows: 1) Sphinx 10m 2) Pinnacles 20m 3) Aonach Beag 25m 4) Observatory main patch 20m 5) Observatory main patch lower 5m 6) Observatory lower right patch 1 15m 7) Observatory lower right patch 2 4m Observatory lower left patch 3m 9) Point 5 Gully 2m The current mild weather on the hills makes it impossible to say that these will all survive. Point 5 Gully's snows will most probably now be gone, and I'd expect a few of the others to vanish before lasting snow arrives.

1994's winter snowfall was huge. Patches survived that ordinarily would have disappeared in August! For instance, take this photograph from the 23rd May 1994 which looks from the Grey Corries westward towards Aonach Mor and Aonach Beag (with Ben Nevis in the background). The amount of snow in Coire an Lochain in Aonach Mor (to the walker's left, farthest away) is just mind-boggling. I've speculated that the depth of snow there must be approaching 50ft: possibly more. And this is in late May! Similarly, this picture from the 7th August of Garbh Choire Mor, Braeriach, shows the corrie absolutely loaded with snow. More similar to late May in a normal year. Over 50 patches survived in 1994, and it would have been more had the mild December weather not melted a few of the lower-lying ones. When so many patches survive a hot summer and mild autumn, you can be sure that the main factor is sheer volume of snow that fell in the previous winter. 1994 was a perfect example of this.

Taking your three points in order: The 'end' of the season is when lasting snow arrives, thereby ensuring cover until next summer autumn. This is complicated by the fact that the season seldom ends in a single day. What I mean by this is that lasting Cairngorms snow generally arrives earlier than Ben Nevis range. This is further exacerbated by the fact that Aonach Beag's snows lie at 3150 ft, and can take up to two or three weeks longer, dependent on what snow arrives. So, for instance, the Cairngorm season ended last year on the 1st October (when lasting snow arrived), whereas Aonach Mor's and Ben Nevis's wasn't until the 18th of that month. Plus(!), we don't know it's the 'end of the season' until some time after, as snow that falls on the 1st can melt easily during the month of October. Although patches in excess of 10m are likely to survive, it can't be said that they'll 'surely' survive. Patches that small are very vulnerable to melting because they lack the mass of snow to insulate them from prolonged mild weather. Sure, the days are short and the melting period limited, but it can happen. This leads neatly on to your last point. In 1994, patches disappeared in December! Temperatures of 10 Celcius plus, combined with extensive muggy hill-fog can be fatal to small patches, and so it proved in 1994. Clear, sunny weather generally isn't as damaging because there's little strength in the sun during November and December, and it doesn't rise anything like high enough to shine on the snow. To give you an idea, Aonach Beag's snow sits below a 1000ft cliff, and is unlikely to see much direct sunlight outside highest summer. Also, if it is clear and sunny during the day then it means it'll be clear and cold overnight, with a frost being probable on the higher hills. Frost is good for snow, firming it up.

Thanks. The photograph from the 8th October shows the main patch split in two. The upper patch is approximately 30-35m wide, with the lower right patch in the region of 15m wide. At present, the upper patch is the largest in Scotland. Hazarding a guess, the maximum width/length of the others are: 1) Observatory Gully - 35m 2) Aonach Beag - ~20-25m 3) Pinnacles (Garbh Choire Mor) ~20m 4) Sphinx (Garbh Choire Mor) ~10m Strangely, the Sphinx patch - though smallest - is always the last to melt, despite its larger neighbour (Pinnacles) being a mere 30-seconds walk away. This is because of the fact that it is more sheltered from late summer/early autumn sunshine, is slightly higher, and sits tighter to the cliffs than its big brother. Also, they both sit on soil, as opposed to stone. This insulates the base layer, prolonging their life. Of the patches listed, I would expect them to melt in this order: 1) Aonach Beag (most at risk because of its low altitude 3150 ft) 2) Observatory Gully 3) Pinnacles 4) Sphinx I hope to visit Aonach Beag on the 24th October, and will take measurements and photos. I'll update on Ben Nevis when I get pictures, which will probably be during the weekend.

Apologies for not updating this thread for ages. I know that there are many on here who like to see how the snow is getting on, and wait with trepidation to see how much (if any) snow is going to survive 'til the first lasting snows of winter! Firstly, as you've no doubt seen, the first snows of the season have arrived. These arrived on the 1st October on the Cairngorms, with heavier snow coming a few days later along with strong winds, causing drifting in favoured aspects. Ben Nevis has also seen a good few days of snow, but it has been – thus far – light with little drifting. Some of the snow that fell on the Cairngorms may still be present in sheltered hollows, but we haven't seen good pictures for a couple of days, so it's hard to be certain. So, what snow still remains on the hills? Well, Garbh Choire Mor on Braeriach (aka Britain's most persistent snow) has the two old faithfulls (Sphinx and Pinnacles) still clinging on. I visited them on the 26th September and they were in reasonable condition, and the subsequent weather (very cool, with sub-zero temperatures for the best part of 9-days) will have firmed them up. I would expect these patches to survive easily, and the snow that fell on the 4th October doubtlessly has filled up the gaps around it, preventing air circulation and a degree of melting. These are the only two patches east of the A9. As for the 'west', Ben Nevis and surrounding hills are still holding on to a bit, but less than last year (and, indeed, 2007). Aonach Mor's snow disappeared some time ago (mid-September), and Aonach Beag's will probably still be there, though we haven't seen pictures of it since the 18th September, where it was in reasonable nick (40-odd metres long). I'm not 100% sure that this will survive this year, as its low altitude means it's more exposed to melting than snow higher up on Ben Nevis. Speaking of Ben Nevis, Observatory Gully's main snow looks to be in very good nick. I would astonished if it didn't make it this year, as it looks to be substantial. Regular sorties by helpful local mountain guide Alan Halewood means we have a very good photographic record of the snows there up to a couple of days ago. In all, it's safe to say that there are 4 Scottish snow patches still extant, with the likelihood of Observatory Gully splitting into 3 before lasting snow arrives. The only issue, as far as I'm concerned, is whether or not my own 'pet' patch of Aonach Beag is going to make it. I'll update this thread when I get more information.

Essentially, glaciers form where the accumulation of snow and ice exceeds the melting (or ablation). In reality, this never happens in Scotland. Perhaps if Ben Nevis was 500ft higher then we may have the beginnings of a glacier (or, an incipient one!), but not at present. Ben Nevis's snowfield is most certainly not an incipient glacier, and nor are any snowfields in Scotland. The average annual temperature would need to fall, according to some estimates, 3 Celcius before we could start talking about incipient glaciers. As it stands, Scotland is too warm and the mountains too low for this to happen anytime soon. ...and before anyone pitches in about glaciers in the Little Ice Age in the Cairngorms(!), there haven't been any in Scotland for thousands of years.

Well, we're getting down to the business end of the season now, with only a handful of snow-patches remaining on the high hills of Scotland. Currently 4 mountains with snow-patches, namely: Ben Nevis, Aonach Beag, Aonach Mor & Braeriach. Of these, Aonach Mor's are almost certain to go by the start of October, but probably sooner. I've not seen Aonach Beag's since the 22nd of August, so don't know how it's fairing. Ben Nevis's snow still in reasonable nick, as you can see from this photograph from a few days ago. The main patch (through the clouds) is in the region of 50m long and wide. The smaller patches to the left (Point 5 Gully) just survived last year, and are in broadly the same nick as last year. Braeriach's Garbh Choire Mor's snows are down to just 2 patches. These are the last in the Cairngorms, with all other ones having melted last week. I've attached a picture of them (courtesy of Nic Bullivant of Cairngorm Mountain). The patch in the middle (the topmost), Sphinx, is Britain's longest-lying snow, with the ground underneath it being exposed to daylight for fewer than 10-months in the last 100 years. At the moment it's still too early to say with any certainty which patches will survive. Certainly fewer than 2008, and most likely 2007 as well.

There's a chance that Braeriach snows will disappear this year, but they're still in pretty good nick. It's amazing how they dig in and seem to consolidate around late-September. To the best of our knowledge, Ben Nevis's snows have never survived when Braeriach's hasn't. If it were to happen this year then it would be the first time since records began. I, myself, think that there's an outside chance of it happening this year, but wouldn't put a brass farthing on it!

Slightly below average, I'd say. The Cairngorms are certainly well down, but Ben Nevis and the Aonachs are about where they've been for the last couple of years. That said, Aonach Mor won't last until the new snows unless there's a real heavy, early downfall. Nothing that's happened in the last few years would suggest this is likely. The depth of Ben Nevis's snow is primarily down to the exceptional falls of February/March. April saw very little snow indeed, and the amount of rain that's fallen this year definitely isn't favourable for snow retention. It's remarkable, actually, that the snow that remains has lasted as long as it has. Always difficult to say when the first snows will arrive. September saw the first snowfalls of 2007 & 2008, but lasting snow didn't arrive in the west until mid-November in 2007! Contrast this with Garbh Choire Mor's snow, which saw lasting snow arriving on the 1st October 2008! Quite a contrast.

Well, it may be August, but a sign of things to come from MWIS: http://www.mwis.org.uk/mountain/EH.PDF: "Showers, which for periods may well be frequent, especially north and west from the Cairngorms. Hail and on highest summits sleet." Winter is on the way...

The deepest part of the snow was around 10m, at Observatory Gully. An extraordinary depth for late August, and similar to last year. In the last 100 years, snow has failed to survive in Scotland in only 5 years: 1933, 1959, 1996, 2003 & 2006. Well down. By now there will only be a few patches left outside Garbh Choire Mor on Braeriach. None will survive other than the Garbh Choire Mor ones.

Well, time for an update after a period of inactivity! I was up Ben Nevis and surrounding hills on Saturday with a couple of fellow chionophiles, and am pleased to report a good covering of snow still remaining in Observatory Gully and a sizeable patch on Aonach Beag. A reasonable amount still on Aonach Mor, but this won't last into October in my opinion. Firstly, Observatory Gully still holding several patches, the longest of which is 85m long, and deep. Easily as deep as last year, as "]this photograph will show. In addition to this main one, several higher-up ones in Gardyloo Gully are substantial, and a good photograph of them is here. Aonach Beag's snow is slightly shorter and less massive than last year, but still has a good 70m length. Aonach Mor's protalus rampart snow is the largest on that hill, but is seriously smaller than 2007 and a fair bit smaller than 2008. It made it by the skin of its teeth last year, but I doubt very much whether it will this year. However, a good picture of it is here. Some other pictures from that trip are here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/28183399@N03/sets/72157622122803506/ If I were a betting man, I'd say that Aonach Beag and at least one of Nevis's patches will survive this year. However, lasting snow is still a fair bit off. As usual, fingers are crossed.