BA Baracus
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Posts posted by BA Baracus
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6 minutes ago, Sunny_AS said:
Prefer to be under a yellow warning going by past experience ?....
Yep. Amber warnings are the kiss of death for snow chances! The number of times amber warnings for snow in my area have been wrong far outweigh those that have been correct.
Whatever happens is a bonus as I assumed the snow last week would be the end of winter!
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To be taken with a pinch of salt but met office app for me now going for heavy snow from 11pm tonight to 3am tomorrow. Thereafter light snow all the way through to Sunday.
Not bad for mid-march!
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9 minutes ago, Bagel said:
Hi, supposed to be travelling to Manchester Airport from Mirfield by taxi on Saturday morning at 5.30am. I know there is no way of knowing exactly how much snow and where it will fall but what are people’s thoughts on making this journey. Roughly how much snow is forecast overnight Friday? I presume the worst hit area is going to be the Pennines and the M62!!!
For the sake of £50 I would book into a hotel on Friday evening at or near the airport. There is no guarantee of any snow but the m62 is an extremely delicate piece of infrastructure which can go t*ts up at any point. It all depends on how much you value piece of mind... the forecast does suggest Saturday early hours is highly likely to see snow. The latest HIRLAM illustrates this well with a line of heavy snow down the pennines straddling the m62.
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2 minutes ago, level said:
I'm flying from LBA on Saturday (via Heathrow to Singapore) and this is making me worried. I know predicting snowfall is tricky even at close range but what are people's views about the likelihood of it being disruptive? Should I be planning on getting the train to Heathrow?
Heavy snow is increasingly likely early Saturday morning and then potentially snow showers continuing during daylight hours. I'm not sure on the threshold for closing runways (ie depth of snow) but as LBA is on the top of a hill I would imagine it will close at some point, even if that is just to allow for runway clearance.
If it were me I'd try to get to Heathrow on Friday evening. The powdery snow with very cold uppers can lead to issues with electric trains (powdery snow gets into the vents and causes issues inside the locomotive) so wouldn't rely on the train either.
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Heavy snow is possible early on Saturday. Cracking end to winter! HIRLAM top image 3am sat and ICON lower image sat midnight. Looks like midnight to 6am is the time of interest.
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Could be an interesting commute on Friday evening as a rain to snow event is possible, as shown on the attached images. As ever, nothing guaranteed at this range but could there be another m62 closure event as people get caught unawares?!
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Looking on the radar the snow is pivoting and twisting back South and East. Could more heavy snow sweep back across the affected areas?
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All Kirklees roads are blocked with snow, stuck buses, crashes etc. Chaos!
The snow is perfect for making some huge snowmen.
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Over 2 inches here and still coming down heavily with large flakes. It will all melt today but it's a great little treat to wake up to! More rush hour chaos no doubt....
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The latest HIRLAM is interesting again for two reasons: the immense snowfall rates expected over SE Ireland in later timeframes but also the progression further North into our region ever so slightly (image attached for a random evening hour).
The system is further east than forecast and I think that will bode well for us as it swings NW later tonight.
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Not quite reached me yet. Sky is getting darker though.
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Creeping northwards... not a bad shout this morning by myself we could have snow this afternoon..!
The snow from Emma is further east than expected, no idea if that's a good or bad thing for our region. Back to radar watching....
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Definitely creeping North slowly into Sheffield. I read somewhere that a lot of the lighter snow echoes on the radar are due to lying snow blowing around. Could be the reason it looks like snow here but nothing falling.... Lots blowing around though!
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Went for a walk at lunch. Level ground about 6 inches. Drifts over the top of my wellies. Great stuff!
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1 minute ago, Yorkshirepudding said:
So the latest calendar forcast says..
Showers slowly fizzing out with a few isolated showers more north but nothing of any worth same moving into Friday showers increase slightly for North and West Yorkshire in the afternoon on Friday.
So why do we have a Amber warning that has just been inssued for further significant snow until 10am tomorrow? Unless they’re using a old Model? I’m increasingly suspicious the met office have been late to issue the warning and there covering themselves because in all honesty it should of been issued before anyone thought about the early commute to work etc.
Yes, I have a feeling it's for what has already gone. Similarly the Amber over Lincolnshire yesterday only appeared at the backend of the event. Too much reliance on computers and not enough actual observations/forecaster input I would imagine.
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10 minutes ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:
Indeed, and I think latest observations suggest the main low is further east (and perhaps a bit further north) than expected at this timeframe, which would potentially have implications for us
APERGE has the same pennine snow too. I'm baffled as to what it is expecting.
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1 minute ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:
Interesting one that BA, whilst I have my doubts about that much further snow for our region over the next 24 hours, text like this sounds pretty severe for an amber:
"Roads may become blocked by deep snow, with many stranded vehicles and passengers. Some rural communities might be cut off for several days. Long interruptions to power supplies and other services such as telephone and mobile phone networks, could occur."
Yes, it was only updated 10mins ago too and extended overnight into Friday morning. They must be expecting something. Interestingly the HIRLAM does show a string of snow down the pennies for most of the day. Example attached from a random timeframe.
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Just now, CasMan said:
Yep a bit strange unless they know something we don't ?
They should post diagrams with reasons why they issue the warnings. The chief forecaster text is usually just dribble.
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1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:
all warnings removed for my area, so does this mean game over ?
There's still yellow warnings to Saturday for whole region?
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Just now, cowdog said:
As its really really bad on the high bits.
Just heard reliable 2nd hand information that West Yorkshire and North Yorkshire will be out of Grit by tonight. So its going to get a whole lot worse - so if you need anything and you have access to a gritted road get it now as the roads could become impassible.
Added the text below. Says they are expecting a further 5-10 cm with up to 25cm more. Can't see where from unless they are expecting showers or the front to invigorate over the hills.
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Just now, CasMan said:
Amber warning just come out extended further into north Yorkshire from now until tomorrow
Into west Yorkshire too... not sure why?
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I'm going to stick my neck out and suggest the front will reach at least the South of the region this afternoon. This is based purely on the radar movement currently displayed.
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1 minute ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:
I think that's the current expectation, but then we were only supposed to get showers over the last 10 hours.........
Yes, what's interesting is that Chris Fawkes on twitter suggests it arrived much earlier and much further east than expected. He then expects it to move North and West. Trouble is no one knows how far North!
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3 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:
in the short term it’s a forecasters nightmare placing the percip. Take tomorrow afternoon for example ; Euro 4, which is usually v accurate is very different to many of the other high res models
Expect lots of chopping and changes and warnings etc! tomorrow could still play well for us!
Is the front expected to pivot northwards into our region or get stuck across Midlands and move westward with "Emma"?
Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
First snow starting to appear in the North sea on radar.