lorenzo
-
Posts
4,875 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
25
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by lorenzo
-
-
anyone note the way the trough drops south at day 6. in a months time, that would allow for some wintry scenes, despite a generally non exciting zonal outlook having been shown. this dropping trough is a continuation of the theme from the past few months.
Certainly a repeat of the period into the second third of October, also saw that trough wanting to dive bomb the continent. Here is the composite for October, the September one shows the main feature being the Scandi High.
-
2
-
-
Winter forecast is ready for your consumption:
http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/237/entry-4684-lomond-snowstorms-epic-novel-winter-forecast-201314/
Headlines are:
[*]Unsettled and cool early December, milder settled middle and colder end
[*]Wet and windy first half of January, Gradually colder through midmonth and SNOWMAGGEDON end of January
[*]Continuation of cold/snowmaggedony theme through early February, turning more slushmaggedon by midmonth and maybe milder by the end
Great read, all the factors in the mix covered here, best of luck with the forecast. If this verifies then January looks great
-
6
-
-
ref lorenzo's post - that pacific high is certainly a large part of the jigsaw wrt to upsetting the p/v via wave 1. however, at the moment, the eastern siberian depressions appear to rolling over the top of the ridge rather than digging into the pacific and generating a better push S/N of the flow. without that, i fear the bonus of the mean n pacific ridge could be lost in respect of a possible early season displacement/split of the vortex.
Hopefully this loop will open, shows exactly the point you make, into the output period the recurve is evident and the ridge holds steady.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/mslp/mslp_npac_loop.html
Edit - add image.
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Some mighty ridging present on the output today, as highlighted earlier by BA the Pacific really ramping up, catching up so these lifted from the 00z. That Aleutian High anomaly chart is literally off the scale and the mean itself looks quite handy !
Anomaly / Mean
Met Office builds that Siberian High also picked up on this morning ECM run, the NH plot signals the Atlantic ridging also.
Very interesting picture with respect to disrupting the PV with Wave Activity. Another MJO plot built from Velocity potential anomalies highlights potential for the mid Atlantic Ridge, where will it go after that...
GLAAM has gone through the floor, so it will be interesting to see just how outrageous these predicted blocks can get..
You can almost sense the loopy GFS 18z runs are just around the corner..
-
27
-
It's pretty ugly out there, nasty cold rain. Some good potential with this system as highlighted in the Storm Thread, might see some nowcasting warnings change throughout the day.
Snapshot of the sferics from the NetWx ADT http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=
V6 Radar will be worth a watch today as cells pop up here and there, already clustering away in the Atlantic on this satrep image.
Quick satellite loop http://www.meteo-mc.fr/~meteomc/Images/sat/sat_new_ireu.gif
Track of the system from meteocentre
Few images from the 06z run on Eport - water vapour showing the dry air, windspeed and airmass. Estofex storm warnings are on the overlay.
-
1
-
-
And, the media are off on one again. ARCTIC BLAST BLAH BLAH BLAH. It's feckin November ya muppets. Rant Over.
Great convective summary from Nick F describes the synoptic situation very well http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=27ef6d6a4ab98d6ca2b7fcfed77fdbe5
Looking at the NMM and Meto fax here are a few of the charts that show the low tracking through and the colder air influence as it does.
Meto drop this to 974mb as it moves out into the North Sea and some windy conditions in the mix
Messy SLP picture which shows the colder air wrapping in as it passes and decreasing 850Hpa temps.
530dam line makes an appearance and elongates perfectly NW- SE, the pocket of 528 does appear well to the North West.
Here's oor first snaw, and a window tomorrow evening for some fireworks ! 0degree isotherm at around 650-700m
Nice and Baltic for the start of November and some nice webcam pics to look forward to for Sunday morning.
-
4
-
-
It is a pity the EC32 is not available in the public domain, there is far too much rubbishing of it's output on here, when I suspect those speaking negatively may have not seen the actual output.
I was fortunate enough to see a few of the runs last winter and to be honest it had a good runof things, in addition it is considered as Ian F mentioned by the UKMO.
I certainly would not discount the outlook it is presenting. As always it is used in conjunction with other forecasting suites, Matt usually reports a balanced report of the monthly, so look out for that for a steer.
-
5
-
-
Good shout Winters Tale, having done no research and with no idea where the mean temp records for Scotland are located, will go for 4.9 !
-
That latest warming reminds me off something akin to don't poke the hornets nest.. You might a) wake them up b.) or get them agitated.
Last time I saw this posted it was stalling and now has taken a plummet.
Lots of different strat charts to pick from but this caught the eye at 30hpa. In the mid range ECM, a very solid looking vortex.
Chiono will be able to clarify how they make that temp graph am sure it isn't as simple as taking the low temp from the Berlin prediction. Even still the 30 hpa run indicates a further 6 degree drop in minimum temp, out til the 9th November.
Already an interesting watch..
-
5
-
-
Check the my media button when posting, you should be able to find old attachments there.
-
3
-
-
BUS , for the QBO, this page is the quickest reference to the phases
http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html
-
1
-
-
Here is one for you Phil http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Re Canadian Warmings, this post from last year thread from Gael Force located the paper with the definitions.
Here is a copy of the definition to save you clicking around.
2.4 Canadian Warming
The fourth type of warming, a Canadian warming is actually a hybrid; a minor
warming disguised as a major warming. At first, a Canadian warming looks like a
major warming, in which the easterly winds replace the zonal westerly flow in the
polar latitudes. However, a closer examination of this phenomenon shows that the
westerly polar night jet has not really been destroyed, as in a major warming, but
is displaced south of 60°N and, usually, relocated over southern Siberia. Canadian
warmings set up when an intense strengthening of the Aleutian High forces the high
to build into northern Canada. The warm air and easterly winds associated with the
high displace the cold polar vortex, pushing it south into Siberia, causing easterly
flow in the high latitudes (Labitzke, 1977). When the Aleutian High weakens, the
polar vortex pushes northward and the stratosphere returns to its normal wintercirculation.
-
8
-
-
Beautiful skies this morning, a fine cold start to the day.
Hopefully more of the same to look forward to in the forthcoming weeks. As Catch mentioned quite a set pattern as we head into November with a more zonal outlook courtesy of an organising and intensifying vortex.
The colder 850hpa temps are appearing with increasing frequency though.
Jet looking pretty robust on the latest GFS run, a constant stream of energy exiting Canada and the US East Coast. Relentless may be a better word. However if comparable to the St Judes storm, may be getting modelled a little more intense than it actually it is after crossing the Atlantic.
Plenty of Atlantic depressions sweeping through, going to be some cold mucky conditions heading toward Bonfire Night.
With regards to November as a whole, at present not a lot on the horizon to upset the particular pattern in place, will keep searching !
-
4
-
-
If the satellite imagery, this thread and everything else about this system sweeping through isn't enough to keep you occupied. 5 live have a storm show on just now.
-
3
-
-
Meto evening Fax from 20 mins ago pin points the low.
Eport has updated with 18z Imagery and things have moved along a bit since earlier, some rocket fuel incoming to kick this thing off.
-
8
-
-
No worries Buried.
Some bright cells pinging through on radar right now, good skies. Still a fair bit of weather to get through today spinning off that low anchored to the Northwest.
-
2
-
-
its kinda hard to enjoy when we aren't allowed to give our own point about a so called storm not really being that bad as well as the fact the models this morning have backtracked so doesn't look to be anything like it was supposed to be.
also with what happened to me last winter where I was banned from posting in the model thread and still am banned all because I posted a few posts where I dared to mention Christmas then going on to watch over the winter when the thread had to be shut due to people being utterly stupid and still seeing them being able to post.
now we cant even post in here about the storm being weak where its a thread for Scottish to post there own thoughts.
makes it kind of hard to ENJOY when you know that u are being looked over more than other posters on here.
Bus, regarding the deleted posts, I have sent you a PM earlier today, as far as I can see your post regarding the models downgrading the output is still there.
Regarding last Winter, I would suggest sending a PM to one of the Reds or Blues on the Team.
-
1
-
-
Think some context is required and we are all aware of the media bias, and how grating the inequality can be at times, we can however stay classy and ignore it.
Michael Fish on bbc news provides some background to the hype over this system -
Forecaster Michael Fish, who famously reassured viewers there was no "hurricane" on the way, said the weather over the coming days would not rival the Great Storm. He told the BBC News Channel: "Present thoughts are there are three storms it's comparable to - March 2008, January 2007 and October 2000."
We are more than familiar with Atlantic lows tracking in easily at least 3 a season of similar depth, looking at the stats above, this in fact a pretty rare event.
As always if there are any posts that are disparaging about the team or generally negative then they most probably will be deleted. Please use the report button if you need to or send a PM.
Some great weather watching coming up, Enjoy !
-
4
-
-
One dodgy run from a global models pub run.
I am unsure how anyone would expect the GFS Pub run to find it's way home after a night on the ensembles. Let alone model accurately how this low fires through a trail blazing upper level jet.
-
1
-
-
It's a traditional Atlantic Beastie, that the ever so reliable GFS 18z wants to downgrade at the last second.
Model watching - still as insane as ever for a hobby.
-
Very interesting 12-18 hrs coming up, to see whether the fuse is lit on this system. Coming into nowcasting range and a classic bit of model drama.
Let's be honest about things, as much as everyone wants a monster system and hardcore model output to mull over, the reality is if this downgrades and does not verify to some of the more extreme solutions then this is a bonus.
Surface plot 2200
Eport airmass imagery from 18z
-
All the ingredients are in place for a notable system to develop, that vital period of final interaction and exit from the jet all important on how this bombs.
Jet whilst downgraded a little last night losing some of the more wicked speed in the West Atlantic, looks again this morning back equally as rigorous as earlier in the week.
UKMO
Charts from the 00z runs
GFS
ECM / GME / GEM
Meteocentre / UKMO
As JH mentioned last night for those not up to the wee hours, FAX the way to go to see how the UKMO General model with input from the chief see the feature developing. Ian F put a great post demonstrating the continuity of how the model has tracked this in from 108 hrs out.
Hope something less drastic than the extreme verifies here, as fascinating as these systems are to watch them bomb on satellite they can cause upsets.
Satellite animation of this come Sunday evening will be impressive too. Bookmark this link if you have not done already.http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html
-
5
-
-
-
1
-
-
Spied this on facebook this evening, some of these are quite funny.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/the-most-wonderfully-scottish-things-that-have-ever-happe
Meanwhile, on the storm front, model discussion thread is full of information and a dedicated thread also running on predicted events for Monday. Met Office latest Fax pivots the track of the low North versus the straight on 3500 km 48hr journey straight over to Denmark.
Good post from Ian F in the model thread also shows the strong continuity of the predicted path of the system on their general model, indicating the fax charts are the best to follow at present. Lots of hype as October goes out with a proper depression coming through.
Will it deliver, or....
-
5
-
The Seasonal Forecast Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Interesting read Sebastiaan, thanks for the link. One wonders if these guys are really onto something, I guess the million dollar question is what computation is being used in their 'Telemappa' software to create the 'axis' line, the one visible Labrador > Siberia on the October composite.
Approfondiemento means deepening if anyone is wondering about the lines on the GPH plot. Indicating the vortex strengthening. Google translate doesn't translate the images !
A very specific forecast on what the expect the vortex to do, well worth a read, I suspect this forecast will be under close inspection as it takes the Cohen SAI work onto the next level.
re: earlier, Regards to NAO, would definitely keep a look out for that and put it in the mix.