Greeny

Looking at GFS only, I do see what is meant by low risk, moderate to strong DLS is backing us over here in the east but there is some reasonable amounts of Convective inhibition too. We are also being backed by more moisture but again Mixed Layer CAPE (not SB CAPE) is very meagre. Lapse rates are not the steepest they could be either. I think a better chance for Williams neck of the woods in the morning as SBCAPE begins to build (note some convective inhibition showing) although it gets confined to offshore as the morning wears on and then the potential spreads out and makes its way Northeast. I'm thinking the far east and southeast could possibly miss out on Monday. Weak shear overall. Edit: not an abundance of moisture either for Monday

not to make too much of a big deal about it just yet but I'm just keeping an eye on the end of the weekend and the start of next week. GFS currently showing the winds direction coming from the South. Its 5 days away yet but worth keeping an eye on. Nothing mindblowing in potential though. Now that I've seen it I just have to mention it Edit: This is my first post in a while and I tend to kick back into life once our storm potential begins to rise. I would like to wish you all the best for 2016 and hope that everyone gets a piece of the action! Please all remember to take care and be safe!

http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast.php Torro issuing a tornado watch and convective discussion for today.

The last week here when the sun is out its really quite strong although the air is quite cool. It can be a bit confusing when one moment you feel cold the next too hot. As mentioned earlier as a low approaches things could break down start of next week.

I just posted this in my fb group... Next week looks like a change is in store. GFS is currently indicating a broad low pressure system centred over Iceland extending down over the UK bringing the moisture back and the possibility of convectivity. As this clears over a couple of days another low is forecast to head our way. Theres always room for the forecast to change but it does look like a good indication a change in weather is on its way. We'll look at it a bit more as we get nearer the time.

What a great idea that timelapse of the lightning, shows how majestic it can be. Props to the author.

We had a few rumbles of thunder and a couple of flashes seen at around 4pm today. That finished and half an hour of persistent heavy rain followed.

Lots of convective skies around Norwich at the mo

http://www.estofex.org/ estofex's thoughts on todays potential..

It is a bit easier to see on the 500 metre radar but from about 14.20 a cell develops and seems to right move over Northampton. I'm not sure what time the tornado was seen and recorded so don't know if it coincides with the time of the tornado.

The most intense storms I believe were given an extra boost by wind convergence as predicted by the NMM. The run I saw a couple of days ago had the convergence being like a head on collision, later runs had the convergence like a catherine wheel, although shear was weak today this wind convergence helped to get rotation in storms. I'm not sure if any storms however weak they are that rotate are classified as supercells. A supercell is classified as a storm with the presence of a mesocyclone. I have seen smaller storms rotate and right move on radar but they are not that intense, I'm not sure if they are classed as supercells though. I don't know if anyone can clarify this.

looking at NMM windspeed and direction. The main area of storms coincides with anticipated wind convergence.

Cloud bases were very low today always a plus for tornado potential and always worth keeping a lookout on days like today. We've had some nice cloudscapes today and some decent pockets of rainfall. Clearing up a bit now with sunny spells.

Monday is still looking interesting, although shear is pretty weak, the centre of a low is forecast to cross England according to GFS and the metoffice fax chart which brings some convective potential and steepened lapse rates for the country. Then winds at the surface pick up from Monday evening in some places. Edit: I just noticed on the NMM that a wind convergence zone sweeps northeast from southwest England to central England by 21z which could be the trigger for storms if surface heating is slack. Still have tomorrow to go through yet though so could change before Monday.

To my surprise had this nice shelf cloud approach at about 8pm yesterday looking from the perimeter fence of Norwich airport. Short video here.. One of our members from my facebook page captured a nice beavers tail on a storm near bury st edmunds. Radar seems to show it being a right mover. Recorded the radar of it will post later when I got it sorted.

Nice timelapse, I enjoyed that one thanks. Just followed you on twitter.

I got it! Looks like the eastern edge of a forming bow echo. Looks likes its outflow dominant. I Should think theres some pretty strong downdrafts from the gust front!Edit: not holding too well though the signature seems to have changed from it. Still a decent cell there.

What a treat, nice 1 mate! Whats the first half of your post code so i can zoom in on radar?

It was the same for us just starting our journey from Atoconilco to Mexico city. I did suggest we turn back due to flooding. Drains were light fountains. Some fantastic lightning and deafening thunder whilst it was overhead. I got some video will have to post it when I can sort it back in England.

Lovely pic!

Looking like a supercell to me, what a treat! Thanks for sharing cheese.

Thanks Mesoscale, it could take a while, doesn't look like its gonna die off just yet. Insects are getting inside so have to keep door shut unfortunately. The 1 around 3 am a couple of nights ago had sustained winds like a hurricane for a while. Flashes were also frequent, I need to post the videos of it yet though. They were mostly just flashes but I didnt catch a fantastic cg and a couple of anvil crawlers.

I'm currently posting video updates of a storm approaching us here in Acapulco Mexico on my facebook group if anyones interested. https://www.facebook.com/groups/1407218326228566/ The view is from the Crowne Plaza 28th floor (top) balcony over Acapulco bay.

A long shot I know but does anyone know where I can get weather charts for Mexico? Could be worth at least looking at some CAPE and LI charts. A typical day here in Acapulco below although not always thunderstorms, I now know what its like to be in 24C dewpoints! Good luck to everyone for storms this week!

We had another thunderstorm last night, woke me up about midnight. Its not the best view from the window but the lightning was pretty frequent. Mostly just flashes and plenty of rumbles. 1 or 2 forks seen but cloud to cloud. I got a few minutes of recording.