jtay
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Posts posted by jtay
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Great video by Peter Gibbs about SSW and how that affects models.
That is very good. It also turns out that Peter Gibbs is God.
Who'd have thought it.
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A whole load of eye candy from this run;
Remember, don't take these charts literally. The GFS has made big steps towards a much colder/snowier pattern over its last few runs compared to its runs the last couple of days.
A westward correction of 50-100 miles is nothing and is easily possible at this stage.
And the last chart by AWD is where we should leave it for now. The GFS might back off a bit at that range overnight, but don't worry about it.
Good fun ahead.
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Latest GFS upgrades snow for our region on Saturday... Bound to change....
It does. Falls more in line with Meto.
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Interesting post here from Ian regarding the weekend especially;
"Extended UK4 Precip Type signal (run with no cold bias) is strong for (mostly light) snow in retreating front by 2100hrs anywhere from approx Cardiff/Bristol eastwards to Reading and onwards to Kent & anywhere broadly south of that line, with exception of southern coastal districts (rain). The next event of interest signalled in MOGREPS snow probs and other modelling such as EC-EPS is overnight Sunday into Monday, with snow / leading edge freezing rain event tracking S down western-central parts of the UK. Less certainty of course on that one (not least with poor UKMO-GM continuity handling the development), but the output charts look fascinating at this juncture. General pattern from NW at that stage also with support now from ARPEGE."
Looks interesting again on Saturday now!
Is that not what Ian's being 'suggesting', for a couple of days now while we've been yaying and naying?
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Sorry it's OT
I don't think there is a topic. Just say what you see.
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Ian has access to more data than we do so I would definetly back him for the weekend. All I'm basing my thoughts on is the data we have access to.
Understood. That's all we can do.
Keep up the good work.
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Summarise;
- Small chance of wintriness Saturday evening and night as a front drops south. Nothing significant expected.
Sure I saw IF say earlier (in the MOD) that the raw outputs would be modified for Saturday and his forecast at 6:50pm seemed to reflect this. More snow in the mix further South and earlier in the day.
I'd up that part of the summary to Good chance Sat afternoon and evening.
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Pleasantly surprised with Susan Powell's forecast for Sat/Sun there. Still showing the South Coast as rain, but the snowline was further south than perhaps expected and therefore the trend is in the right direction.
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No idea after Monday but better pattern after the earlier output.
The rain/snow for Saturday seems to be becoming rather under whelming now.
Saturday into Sunday was always going to be borderline and it still is, with the position of the transitional low being paramount.
As Ian F alluded to earlier this week, next Monday onwards is where the excitement may lie and sure enough, even the GFS is now hinting as this.
Relax and wait, you may get a pleasant surprise.
Heard that plenty of times and as it turned out, snow was the more likely outcome.
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Well Gary didn't end up on the Christmas table, but he does now seem to be losing the plot.
He's spent this morning in the back garden, putting out the vibe to two male blackbirds. Most of the time, the blackbirds were locked in an airbourne battle, which didn't seem to bother him.
Here they are having a rest and possibly a laugh at poor Gary's expense.
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Well things are looking promising, and I'm going into the MOD to see what's going on!!!
Good luck with that.
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Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Hampshire Avon flood warnings have been removed south of Salisbury this morning. The warning has been in place since Dec 24th. Still got undesirable river views, however, so another reason to hope that the 06z has just gone off on one.
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Ah your just teasing! Aren't you!???
I thought this event was pretty much nailed on. Maybe the detailed stuff is late because everyone at HO is sitting around open mouthed at the latest charts?
It's never nailed on at this range, I'm afraid. We're at T+96 and the position of the transition low will be crucial only for the weekend's excitment, but not for next week's cold.
Don't get hung up on Sat/Sun down here, everything comes to she who waits.
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What's a "sun"?
A third-rate newspaper.
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Ruddy hell, if the ECM verified we would be under snow this time next week near enough.
Goes to show the volatility of the NWP output currently.
Alas, the same caveat should be applied to the ECM. You'll never pick out a snow event from a week away in the South of England.
Let's get the cold in first (which is on it's way), then we'll worry about the snow.
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No dont bother - pathetic really. Reminds me of the House of Commons! LOL
Perhaps there ought to be an 'ignored members' leaderboard, with the weekly top 5 being banned for a while.
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I've just come from there............it's barmy!
Thank goodness for the peace and quiet of this thread!
I was planning to plough through the MOD at half-time. Should I not bother?
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god said incest was forbidden right?
I don't think he said anything. You've just been told he said it. (But whoever said it is still right).
so after adam and eve had children, how would the population increase?They didn't. See Coast's post above.
where was there a mention of dinosaurs
If they had been aware of them, which they weren't, it would have blown the whole premise out of the water, so best swept under they carpet; much as creationists do now.
why is there suffering?
Because the human race is full of idiots.
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Does anyone know what Aquinas's 'proofs' actually prove?
Yes, they prove that some folk will believe anything if you spin enough nonsense.
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A general tendency, governed by purely thermodynamical inevitability, for everything to lose its order and organization; until, in the far distant future the entirety of space will become a homogeneous, undifferentiated, cold...whatever?
Like Portsmouth then?
Existence, evolution, creation (though not in the biblical sense), et al would be your fight against Entropy. Do nothing and that's what you'll get. A bit of effort, energy, a fault and things start to happen.
Rest assured it'll win in the end, but at least we're in the fight and punching; for the next few billions years at least.
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Just a note to set your generic digital recording devices for next Monday at 10pm.
http://www.channel4....ies-1/episode-2
"In a journey that takes him through visually stunning locations across the world, Richard Dawkins builds a powerful argument for facing up to the scientific truth about life and death - however hard that might be."
I sense a heated debate in the offing. Hurray!
Ha... Scratch that. It's on More4, but I can't change the title now.
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Catweasle strikes again: http://www.itv.com/i.../?Filter=326118
The die was cast as soon as Mark Thompson was referred to as an Astrologer.
~18:22mins in, if you want to avoid his bit and just watch The Nolans.
In fairness, I thought PC came across quite well, keeping the ranting to a minimum, but he's reverted to type this morning on Twitter with ...
"Piers trashes CO2 warmists on ITV AlanT show Oct3"
Bless him.
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So it is. No idea how that switched to -1.
Cheers
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Hello Paul,
It looks to me like the forum timing is an hour out. It's running on UTC at the moment.
John
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
Are you feeling lucky for Monday Katemart? The Meto warning boundary goes straight through Lordswood.