Muffelchen
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Posts posted by Muffelchen
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TVN live video page won't even load!
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Nasty, heavy sleet here at the mo. Worried about the freezing rain reports. Was in an ice storm once in 82, not fun. Hope this clears through and the next showers are of snow, not what we want from a cold spell.....
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Ditto here
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Wind has gotten up in the last 15 minutes and the dewpoint has dropped and everything has dried up. Radar says that we had a light snow shower about 15 minutes ago but can see no evidence looking outside, where all the puddles are gone and the road is dry.
Not sure what is going to happen tonight and it does look very similar to last night, but if those high uppers can stay offshore, we might just get something here.
Not staying up to find out though!
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I think Cold Winter's post earlier (#3934) is very informative. Looking at the NW radar screen and overlaying data, the uppers here are -3.3°C which is too warm for snow, hence sleet. However, the ground is still cold with slush still there and flakes still sitting in puddles, un-melted. Looking North (for the source of the air to come) the uppers do drop a bit but not dramatically it would seem so it looks like the rest of the day will follow the same pattern.
These warmer uppers were modelled but they were originally supposed to be further West and to occur yesterday but they are here today, sadly. I am away with work next week so I was hoping for some snow to go sledging with the kids :-( I am off tomorrow and not back till next weekend so I think that's the opportunity for this winter gone, although there is some hinting in the models of an extension to this cold spell but I remain to be convinced.
For those in the lower lying parts of the region who are getting 'front edge snow' don't count yer chickens looking at the showers coming in from the N Sea. Based on experience here and to the north, this turns to sleet and will stay as such.
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On and off sleet showers here, which is a disappointment I have to say. Was very confident for this cold spell but confidence is waning and I HATE SLEET! I would prefer rain to sleet but it seems to be the theme here this winter. In Doncaster on Thursday there was heavy snow from a south westerly but here it's rain from a northerly off the N Sea!
I give up!
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OK gonna dip my toes in here or the first time this year: my head was bitten off at Xmas when I last posted and has only just re-grown!
Things seem a little more civil here at the mo so will add my thoughts to the morning's discussion. I think we can all agree that come Wednesday the weather will turn a lot colder and the wind will veer to the NW and afterwards to the north. Past experience of northerly winds at this time of the year will mean that it will be dry away from coasts where there is a slight onshore flow. The wishbone effect will kick-in and much of the UK will be dry. Here, in Beverley, when there is a strong, bitter northerly wind, you can see the showers out over the N Sea drifting South in these set-ups. On the NW radar they are there and at night, when the temperature differential is at its strongest, you can often see distant lightning too (and even sprites on one occasion in the cold, clear artic air).
So, am I downhearted? No. The reason? This is because the flow will dry out everything and freeze the ground. These set-ups also always have troughs in the flow, if the northerly is sustained, as this one will be, then these can and will bring snow to many parts of the UK. This snow will then lie straight away and will even drift around on the cold ground surface. This is what I love: cold, dry surfaces with blowing snow. This will come with this northerly I am certain so, be patient. We are nearly there and we know the northerly is coming: the snow will inevitably follow - probably for all.
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Temperature is rising steadily here now and is up to 2.8°C and the sleet has stopped and it is brightening up. I have a bad feeling that this might be that for this winter but hope I am wrong.
With today (just) this makes three snow days this winter, which is two more than last winter but way behind the winters before.
Oh well, it's only weather
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Sleet since about 05:30 this morning which is sometimes a bit snowier, sometimes rainier. This has had a deleterious effect on our existing snow cover but it has made everything unbelievably slushy and slick. DPs have hovered just above freezing (0.3°C at present but has been down to 0.1°C in the last hour) with the air temp 1 degree above that. Unbelievably marginal but just on the wrong side. Looking at the DPs and the amount of snow flakes I can see as I look out the window there is a clear correlation and I would guess that if the temperature went down 0.4°C, it would turn to snow here. No doubt it will be all snow on the Wolds, so I decided to work at home today.
Very interesting (if horrible!) weather today.
Well done all of you who have got/are getting snow. Might be a wait till the next batch I fear....
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Looks a bit like a Pembrokeshire Dangler there off St Davids at the mo, Sadly from NW radar it looks like all rain but nice to see. I remember one amazing Boxing Day when we had snow shower after snow shower in Pembroke from one of these. Must have been around about 1980. Been few and far between in recent years....
Edit: just noticed the handle of the previous poster
What a coincidence: just popped over from Yorks and Lincs to make the comment after looking at the radar. Good luck this week with the white stuff -
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LOL, GFS shows a great snow event for our region on Wednesday and another on Saturday.
Well looking out my window all is white and it has started snowing again. With lots of showers in the N Sea it looks like I will break my snow day duck this winter and, with as you say top-ups to come, the kids might get a chance for a sledge or two.
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I'm at a poxy 19m asl but this was enough tonight with evaporative cooling. This effect somewhat inland was obviously not so pronounced on the coast at Withernsea. Just goes to show how local things can be.
Originally I am from Pembrokeshire and in the 20+ years I lived there, there was a similar effect at the eastern end of the county, as you got near the Carmarthenshire border. Here the rainfall would turn to snow in spite of no difference in the overall elevation of the rolling countryside, yet there was a clear snowline running South to North across the county. You could see it clearly from the train at Whitland. This again was obviously a local effect from the Irish Sea influence. It never occurred in an easterly wind when we had our best (extreme!) snowfalls, but was always present in a northwesterly or even a westerly (it was the 80s after all!).
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Stopped snowing here now. Not going out to check depth (too much of a wus!) but there appears to be lots of light showers in the N Sea that are heading this way. However, at the moment they do appear to be fizzling out before they get here, i.e. over the Wolds. It would be interesting if someone was to report from North of the Wolds on the nature of these showers. If they can pep up a bit and drive further inland, over the Wolds, then it could be very interesting come the morning.
It is also interesting that the temperature went up when the precipitation arrived - presumably some mild air entrained in the little system these showers were associated with - then dropped again and the precipitation got heavier. I guess an example of evaporative cooling in action. I will defer on this question to Reef who has a far better knowledge of local conditions than do I. We have had similar instances before here where we had rain, whereas a few miles further inland they had snow.
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Heavy snow in Beverley and we have a couple of cms on the ground. Radar still shows green but snowing it is. That said there seems to be a lot more behind this band as the direction of the flow seems to have changed a bit and now looks a bit like a streamer set-up.
Might be an interesting night.......
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Radar has turned to green now but to the west the green has turned to pink. All of that notwithstanding, the temp here is 0°C with a DP of -1.3°C so I think it's looking good.
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More pink appearing now: must be pretty much right over you CW. Hope springs eternal as they say.....
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I know, starting to wonder if I'll ever see lying snow again!
Do not lose hope, the latest frame on the NW radar is showing pink appearing on the southern edge of the precipitation...
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And after all that anticipation.................... sleet
The weakest, most pathetic part is passing right over me, typical! And the bit behind which is the heaviest will probably fade out and die as it goes over the moors too. Anyone would think I'm a pessimist?!
Arrghh, you may be right
Now that the precipitation has crossed the N York Moors, the colours on NW radar are changing to green, Hopefully they will change back to pink again but, if they don't, the wait will continue.... -
Still holding together and still showing as snow on the NW radar. One sugar dusting last year is all we had but, after waiting for two years, it's beginning to look like we will get at least a bit of snow this evening/overnight.
Getting a bit excited now and the weather for the remaining of the week looks promising in terms of cold and perhaps a top-up or two....
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Well it's all over for tonight here: no snow as the sleet has turned to rain and temp has risen to 2.5°C with a DP of 1.5°C. Looked promising (in spite of me knowing better!) with the temp dropping to 0.8°C but it was not to be. Don't really get it here in these set-ups, they always end up with sleet. Best easterly snow is with a strong, cold continental feed picking up moisture from the N Sea and producing heavy (sometimes thundery) snow showers. Depressions tracking East to the south of us in marginal situations never produce the goods although often do so to the west and this was the case tonight.
Back to model watching again... Won't be posting over on the model thread though: way too dangerous :w00t:
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Temp has risen to 1.8°C with a slight easterly breeze that has set up. DP has also risen to 0..9°C so looking less and less like snow will replace the sleet we are having. This is all too common here with easterlys, as Reef has said earlier, presumably the effect of the (relatively) warm N Sea
First sleet of the winter though.....
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Rattling on the skylights had died down and precipitation sounds 'quieter'. Temp has dropped to 1.8°C and the DP is now at 0.6°C so I suspect that maybe a change from sleet to snow could be on the cards here. That said, this may have already commenced as the sleet we are having seems to be getting snowier: more flaky when streetlight gazing and the quietness mentioned above. The latter does not appear to be related to intensity of the precipitation looking at the streetlamps!
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Unsurprisingly just rain here with a temp of 2.8C and dewpoint of 2.0C.
Hate these marginal events with northern edge snow as they never deliver here with the onshore breeze, too much warming.
Same here in Bev. 2.6°C here with sleet, however, this is of the heavy rain variety with the odd flake thrown in!! No wind though: absolutely still.
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.... And on this we agree barry! Indeed listen to the real experts because they are unbiased and wont lead you up the garden path.
Mushy,
This is the 'moans and ramps' thread and I came here for a moan! I didn't attack anyone nor, God forbid, any particular model. I was just expressing an opinion that I am not happy with the models. No wonder I hardly ever post on the model threads: you get yer head bitten off!
Over and out (for this year).
What a coincidence: just popped over from Yorks and Lincs to make the comment after looking at the radar. Good luck this week with the white stuff 
Now that the precipitation has crossed the N York Moors, the colours on NW radar are changing to green, Hopefully they will change back to pink again but, if they don't, the wait will continue....
Chase Day 18 Discussion - TX/OK
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
Wall cloud on Matt Gratham's stream near Breckenridge