chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posts posted by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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2 minutes ago, Wynn D Woo said:
And so will 99% of other people
Maybe, but what's 1% of 60 million?
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41 minutes ago, Airedalejoe said:
Beautiful day. Temp around 31/32 so far, been 31 year since we've seen that here. So nice to get outside without wondering what to wear, usual 2 hour walk around the fields/woodland. What I'd give to have a whole summer like this. Everyone I met full of the joys of spring and loving the weather.
Turn on tv on return and bombarded with apocalyptic warnings of doom and gloom. People keeping kids off school etc, we're a laughing stock.
It is hotter doewn south, you know!
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46 minutes ago, Wynn D Woo said:
Up to 35C here and still OK for my usual lunchtime walk, low humidity is making this a cracking hot spell.
Also pleased to note that, despite the hysterical postings on social media from the under 35 yr olds about the heat, I didnt die after i went out my front door
You might be OK, but others won't be.
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Norwich rounded-up to 36C.
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17 minutes ago, Nick L said:
...what?
Offended by maps, this country really has lost it.
It was all over Twitter in the past few days. The AGW "sceptics" are convinced it's a conspiracy.
17 minutes ago, Singularity said:East Anglia looks to me to be the region to watch, clearest skies for longest and a big overland fetch to the wind.
Hawarden a possible exception due to the foehn effect, could yet see todays highest temp.
Our local area stalled for a while around 34.6C but is now at 35.5.
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32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
GFS looks grim if you need rain
ECM is not quite as bad for some parts
8-9 mm in two weeks here - the Great Eastern Desert extends...
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Norwich showing 34C at 12.50.
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Norwich hit 30C at 10.20.
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6 minutes ago, minus10 said:
I find the absence of ...shall we say more widespread convective rain during the breakdown quite staggering...given that humidity will be increasing, the very high temps and pressure lowering.
No expert, but i would have thought with this set up being shown on the latest fax ..
Forming fronts, troughs and the forcing from the cold front that would be enough with the high temps to generate some decent storms, however BBC accumulated rainfull for the next few days shows little if any rain, particularly in the south east...crazy
I'd take the 10 mm, but otherwise agree.
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13 minutes ago, AWD said:
Nothing substantial showing up in any ensemble product really. Mogreps below typical of any forecast expectations;
Cheers. It'll be as white (not brown, but white) as it was in 2018 again.
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Just now, bluearmy said:
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to this until we’ve seen the run repeat and have some support
Cheers mate. We really need some rain here in Norfolk.
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3 hours ago, slater said:
So no breakdown for the east and south east on the latest GFS run for Wednesday ,looks like possibly happening overnight.
Wednesday night/thursday morning?
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53 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
The cold front coming in across southwestern parts at midday Tuesday looks to be our little saviour. The T850 20 degree isotherm has reached its most northerly extent, to the north of Scotland, just as the breakdown arrives in the southwest. If the breakdown was to be delayed by a day, the day by day increase of 2-3 degrees shown on the 0z ECM ensemble could well have given a mean of around 38 degrees for Wednesday in places in the east of the UK. These plots don’t even show the mid-afternoon peak, so the Wednesday maximum would have been comfortably and widely hitting 40 degrees, not just in a few spots, such is the advance of the heat over the next few days.
It has been fascinating, and indeed at times a bit scary, to have been part of a group of people who have watched this momentous weather event emerge for getting on a fortnight now. I hope that the next time the modelling thread is this busy, that it will be due to an equally well foreseen super-blizzard!
Two cold fronts and an upper trough surely must mean downpours?
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31 minutes ago, hotsummer said:
There’s been a few flutterings of it, but heat from next weekend on 00Z not only arriving but staying for the entire last week of July - 30c plus (and into mid 30s) for 8 days! Could you imagine if that even came off?
it would be quite remarkable.
A possibility given heat so close by - just an example in FI lol (27/7/22).
20c line right near, 15c well in. 564dam almost positioning itself as its own Hadrian’s wall.
Jetststream pushed further north than now and early next week!
That's almost as scary as this Monday and Tuesday!
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Surreal experience seeing Julie Reinger putting 41C as the BBC East region maximum on Tuesday.
Just now, Kent Blizzard said:It's amazing how some people are oblivious to what's going to go on next week.
i called a customer at lunch who we had booked in for Tuesday to lay a patio, I explained we are use to working in warm weather but Tuesday is looking exceptionally hot and would you be willing for us to move you to Saturday (we don't usually work weekends). After a lot of back and forth they accepted it!!
the garden is in direct sun, plus some digging and hard graft is involved. I'm not risking myself or other workers for money.
I know plenty of intelligent people who never watch a weather forecaset.
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3 hours ago, Jimmyh said:
I would hesitate to say that alot of Europe is better prepared for this heat compared to this western Atlantic driven country.
Housing stock is very different in southern Europe to here.
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Just now, Ed Stone said:
Ask him how many bog-rolls he bought back in 2020?
Don't think he bought any; he is convinced Covid is a hoax.
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1 hour ago, Arctic Hare said:
They won't though, they'll still claim "it was hotter in 76!" despite the hard numbers saying otherwise. That kind of Twitter person doesn't change their views because of little things like evidence.
I've just had one argue that the Met O's heatwave definition is "arbitrary" and just intended to scare people. When I told him there has to be a definition, he asked "why?"
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
As long as people take sensible precautions there’s no need for heat to cause problems .
Not sure I agree with that, TBQH, but O/T.
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41 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:
Facebook brings out all the lunatics, if they weren't spouting brain-dead rubbish on there they'd only be doing the same down the local pub!
This was on Twitter lol.
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1 hour ago, Norfolk Sheep said:
Another overcast day with a strong breeze, feeling positively chilly outside. Typical for Norfolk.
We'll miss it by Monday...
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4 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
Looking at the model output today, perhaps for the first time ever I feel a genuine pit in my stomach/sadness that this is even a possibility. I think anyone with a working brain can put together now that something is seriously wrong with our climate. Highs in the low 40s and lows in the mid 20s should not be happening for the southeast, let alone north of the Midlands. I think we can only hope for a last minute downgrade, but I think that's wishful thinking at the moment. Unbelievable stuff really. If this truly does come off I think it will be a wake up call to really see what we can do to limit the effects in the future, even if we have to turn to artifical means like spraying aerosols etc. Who knows. I doubt I'm the only one who's just a bit flabbergasted by it all!
No, they will still deny it. In the US, there were people denying the existence of Covid as they were dying of it. They'll never accept.
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19 minutes ago, multi cellular thunderstorm said:
Can I just say, it's such a relief to come in here and take shelter from social media for a bit, I can't believe how low the collective intelligence seems to have fallen. I'm tired of all the "it's just summer" comments, "it was hotter in 1976", "it's project fear" etc etc etc.
It's so nice to come back here and find friendly, knowledgeable weather enthusiasts having good discussions in the right way. I was very active on here in the 2000s back when I was young, I thought social media and Facebook groups had taken over but I'm really seeing the value of a specialised forum again!
Anyway, the next GFS run is rolling out...
Was going to post the same. Read and weep:
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55 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:
It could well be the very low dry DP (given the theta-w's @ 850hPa) at the surface that are restricting the temperatures - on the basis that moist air holds more heat.
At least low dewpoints would make it slightly less dangerous and unpleasant.
Temperature Record Monitor Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
35.7C at my nearest unofficial site.