chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posts posted by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
No consensus yet
and models are poor at picking up convective thorms at range of more than a few days. Fwiw, the eps mean precip total by next Thursday is 5mm in your region.
Cheers.
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Can I ask - is there consensus on rain/storms late Tuesday/Wednesday in any part of southern or eastern England, please? Forecasters on Twitter saying no rain at all out to 22nd on some models.
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6 minutes ago, slater said:
I am reading this and just out of nowhere a sudden heavy shower over Attleborough, it’s dampen the dust and the smell is lovely, first bit of rain in weeks, obviously will do nothing for the farmers, but surprisingly to see as nothing no rain was forecast,
I'll be there tomorrow!
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33 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Over in the 'Records & Stats' thread I posted some analysis here of the stats for June 2022. You may have noticed this statement from Dan Holley, Weatherquest:
"With just 185.4mm (67% of average), this is the driest January to June period in East Anglia since 1996, and prior to that 1976."
So with the current spell of scorching weather showing no sign of a serious breakdown, it's rather worrying to see that the last few GFS runs have trended to removing a forecast for any serious rain right out to the 22nd July. The local BBC news at lunchtime was reporting on the concern now being expressed by farmers. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm struggling to keep my garden alive. The fir tree at the end of the garden now looking very stressed.
Here's the accumulative rainfall for the next 10 days from tonight's 06z GFS run. Hopeless.
Yes, it's worrying.
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40 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:
This is the only thing I worry about. On all the ensembles and suites I am not seeing any sign of a reload or any real continuation of warmth/heat. Doesn't look overly settled either.
I really do hope this won't be a typical British plume where we're paying for the spell with weeks of 'meh' after.Being selfish about it, my region needs rain badly.
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2 minutes ago, Thundershine said:
Grass in the UK is typically a winter rye (cold weather grass) - it's normal for it to scorch easily in dry periods even in a cool summer like the UK's, and it recovers fast.
Wild grass or lawns?
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24 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
Isn't the grass actually fine for a very long time when it's yellow though. It certainly recovered easily enough by Autumn 2018.
As for today pretty much the perfect summer's day. 28C sunny all day with the odd bit of whispy high cloud.
Yes, but I wasn't sure how long it could stay like that, plus it was bushes and small trees as well.
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8 minutes ago, Paul said:
There's a difference there though isn't there. That is something the individual expressing the desire can control, but no one can control the weather.
This is why we have the guilt tripping rule in the guide lines.
Thanks for the clarification; does that mean, though, that if I express an opinion regarding concern for the vulnerable (which BTW includes me) I could be infringing the rules?
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Just now, Mapantz said:
I haven't seen a single person on this forum wish for any kind of suffering from extreme weather.. But nobody should be telling other members that they're selfish or irresponsible for wanting certain weather extremes to occur. It's in the forum guidelines and it should be adhered to.
If you don't like it, then ignore the poster, or don't go to that part of the forum. I like to view the model discussion thread without seeing members getting lambasted and creating arguments because they don't like somebody's weather preference.
Well no, I haven't seen anyone saying "I want to see old people die", but that's a pretty low bar to clear. Would we say "I want to drive at 70 mph on a residential road past a school at 3 p.m. whilst sending a text message" and expect to not be criticised just because we hadn't expressed a desire to kill kids?
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13 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Member/ supports @ ec-12 suite.. if you’re ignoring the take- members- clustering.. then you must also assume.. the model on raw/ and decipher base is a waste of meteorological time!!.. all we await is to what extension/ extreme we may come to fruition with—@ the London ones..
Sorry, I don't follow your analysis, and I'd like to be able to. Could you possibly re-phrase, please?
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1 minute ago, SunnyPlease said:
It's preferences isn't it. If you don't like constant heat, dryness and sun, I can understand why you wouldn't like it. For me though, it was an absolutely wonderful summer. We get drenched nearly the year round in this country so it was absolute bliss to virtually have no rain at all for a couple of months.
I agree provided there is enough subsequent rainfall to refill rivers and aquifers.
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It is unreasonable when you're doing it in a guilt-tripping manner.
How do you define that, though? Wanting extremes to happen for the sake of a kick and jeering at people who disagree due to fearing for their own health and the health of loved ones seems to me a symptom of contemporary societal disconnect.
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1 hour ago, SunnyPlease said:
Fully agree with this. In terms of temperatures, it's been rather average, with most days hovering around 21-22c (Cambs). It has been notably dry and sunny for many months here on the whole though which makes the summer in particular probably seem better than it actually has been so far.
That aside, it has certainly been the best summer since 2018, which is a summer I expect to not be surpassed for many many years; most likely decades. I can't overstate just how wonderful summer 2018 was with endless days of wall to wall sunshine, consistently high temperatures, and totally bone dry. It is the only time in my whole life that I actually forgot what rain looked or felt like, and have never seen ground so dry.
In regards to the prospect of 40c being reached...I am rather confident it will come close (perhaps a 50% chance of the record of 38.7c being broken, and maybe a 20% chance of 40c being breached). Even with obvious global warming, the stars really do need to align in a big way to make 40c possible in this country. It is only a matter of time, but I do see it as the absolute maximum this country is capable of, and it needs the 25c isotherm, very low wind, and absence of cloud at 3pm and later. The UK usually succumbs to the last one.I hated 2018 - the countryside was dying, or at least, it seemed as though it was dying.
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51 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
Funny how when we had those GFS runs people were hoping it would "downgrade" and when less hot temperatures are modelled its being described as a "poor" run.
If its records your after then I would say we gone slightly backwards on that potential but the devil in the details will still alter. A record has never been set in stone and its still less than a 50% chance imo but the potential has not gone.
Subtle differences will make a huge difference down the line.
Yes, this. Earlier today we were saying that 42C was dangerous and a downgrade was needed for the sake of people's health, now members are complaining because one output shows that exact downgrade.
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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Only thing we do need to be careful of is if it takes too long to reach here the plume may well totally destabilise in that time, or get swept ENE too quickly without reaching our shores.I think the 12z GFS is about as slow as we want it go. Any slower and the max temps will start to adjust downwards as a result due to more cloud cover/lower 850hpa temps.
GFS ensembles are quite mixed with regards to timing, some still are quicker, some are slower. I fear a higher % may not make it at all this time vs the 06z run.
Still a very hot suite mind you.
Ramping?
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18 minutes ago, GSP said:
6 reasons the air you're breathing today is much cleaner than it was 50 years ago
WWW.FOXWEATHER.COMDespite population growth, urban sprawl and more vehicles on the roads, getting a breath of fresh air is much easier today than it was five decades ago.
Not the same as CO2, though.
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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:
For what its worth NetWx-MR also going for 40C at T168.
40C on the North Norfolk coast? Wouldn't there be a sea breeze?
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What makes you think we're cleaning the air?
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Given that Netweather has a male membership bias, do we think that there's a macho tendency in the Models thread to describe 40C+ in positive terms?
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14 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Usually it's a bit of a downer to get back from your hols, so after a couple of weeks in cool and unsettled Germany and Austria it's weird to be feeling like I've just arrived on my hols, thanks to this wonderful current spell of UK weather.
A snapshot of temps at 15.35 showed many in the Region were enjoying 27C, with London and a location just to the east of Ely (Santon Downham?) at 28C.
Source: Netweather V8 radar with overlay.
Here in Hadleigh there were some lovely cirrus to be enjoyed this afternoon:
I wonder whether you'll still be enjoying it next weekend given that the models are converging on 41-42C for our region next Sunday, Malcolm?
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17 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:
I still don't understand why more people haven't bought a portable A/C unit to help with sleeping. I know they're not cheap (£250-£300 these days) but we've been seeing evidence of warmer summer events for at least a decade, so if I hadn't been able to afford one then I'd have saved up for one as a priority.
I bought one 6 years ago and regularly use it on warm nights otherwise there's no way I'd be able to sleep in the heat.
Not all of us are the householder so have no say in the matter. Running costs are a factor.
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6 hours ago, Alderc said:
This is not model post, but moderators can all the guilt tripping one liners about loss of lives be removed. This doesn’t happen in winter when everyone is baying for days of blizzards and subzero temps or when the likes of Storm Eunice cane along which was also clearly life threatening.
Maybe another thread should be opened for concerns about that?
Not all of us are baying for blizzards and -10000000C in winter, either.
So, what maxima are ICON going for, and where in the country? 45C? 50C?
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6 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
Many will be tiring of the heat by then, so just as well. Much lower heights by that stage, but still above average and likely pleasantly warm at the surface.
Understatement of the millennium if you don't live in Wales!
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Just now, minus10 said:
Interesting...latest bbc forecast
First time seen 36 shown ...DB also stated hotter and more humid??
More humid seems against what most here have discussed.
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The heat haters club 2022
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Interesting thoughts!