chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Thanks for the info., Rob. I didn't realise he was that high-up - I shall have to give his posts more weight in my attempts at understanding what is most likely in future (with the understanding that he's far from infalliable, of course).

Credit to you for that punt!

Sun cream? Whereabouts in the UK are you LOL?! Essex surely hasn't been that sunny, has it? It appears from the experts that January may well continue wet and windy, though cooler than December, with February possibly containing the better chance of something properly cold. My hunch, for what little it's worth, is that lowland England won't see much if any snow and will be predominantly mild, but that really is just a "feeling".

May I amend my guess to 7.2C, please? Only 0.6C lower than previously, but I was perhaps a touch pessemistic to suspect a second unprecedented CET month in succession.

Interesting post by Ian Fergusson just now in the Strat thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/?do=findComment&comment=3311345 I'd love to think I'm wrong!

GP is one of those I listen to and greatly respect. My problem is that I don't know enough about the stuff he studies to make an informed judgement. I must admit, though, that, while it's fascinating from a purely academic standpoint, i do wonder how much influence it has on the "real world" in terms of whether the conditions that prevail pay any attention to the hypotheses.

You have me, Sir. I was, of course, referring to the prospect of cold conditions.

O/T I know, but, after the last couple of months, I'd take that!

January, mild. Very wet and stormy, with Somerset Levels flooding again, and floods in the north not easing due to added rainfall. February, mild, drier than the last few months. March, possibly a cooler spell or two, though no snow for lowland England. Average rainfall. April, cooler than average, showery and unsettled. May, early warmth and settled weather, but wet and cool later. June, wetter and cooler than average. July, warm and generally settled, with a plume (possibly a couple). August, Warm and drier than average, with some thundery spells. September, Settled first half of the month, but rapidly heading downhill. October, wet and windy. November, wet and windy. December, much the same as this year, with storms, flooding and excessively mild. Even then, most posters on Netweather won't accept that winters in the UK are changing rapidly. Please note that I don't want excessive rainfall and flooding, it's just what I fear might happen.

I keep saying this, and am lambasted for it, but winter's over - it was over on the 1st of Decmber with an extremely powerful El Nino and raging vortex. The sooner everyonne accepts it, the better. Given that the south-west seems likely to join the north in the flooding misery over the next couple of weeks, with the flow more W-E than SW-NE, the main focus is on trying to find settled, anticyclonic conditions in the model ouputs rather than cold which isn't going to happen.

Thanks for the heads-up. That Jet Streak on the 250mB chart appears to be in the worst possible place.

It's taken me a long while to get used to his bone-dry sense of humour; I think part of it is that it's relatively easy to detect in person, but, when all you have to go on are typed words on a screen and a few "emoticons", it can be difficult to differentiate dry humour from vindictive posting. At times, though, he's the voice of realism and caution when cold rampers are getting OTT.

MOD thread is indeed awful at present. As much as I'd like to see proper cold and snow forecast, the MOD thread is for discussion of what the models are showing, irrespective of preference. This thread ought to be the place to vent frustrations.

Slightly O/T I know; apologies Mods, but I would like, if I may, to say in-thread rather than via. PM, that our personal preferences may have to take a back seat to the reality of the current situation. I'd suggest that the heights to our south-west or, indeed, directly over the UK, would be welcomed by so many who have seen enough rain to last them into the middle of 2016. Bringing things back to model discussion, would heights in such a position be likely to form a mid-latitude block , thereby reducing the chances of a Euro high re-establishing the warm, wet SWerly flow that's done so much damage already this winter?

Oh, I have a lengthy list of posters in my ignore list.

Everyone is eithr arguing about whether this flooding is worse than what the south west had two years ago, or falling over each other to proclaim how much of a mild lover they are. I'm seriously contemplating asking mods to close my account - the Extra section is great, but the forum is awful nowadays.

May I amend my guess to 7.8C, please?

I'm ever more convinced that the pattern we have now is the one we will hang-on to until April.

Is that an Omega block I see initiating?

Thanks for the update. Most concerning given the vulnerability of large swathes of northern England at present.

Don't complain - it's only fair that we take-on part of the burden.

Evidently the Met Office don't agree. I must admit, I'm a touch underwhelmed by the short-term at present, given the possibility of more heavy rain for the north, though the models seem to agree on a fairly dramatic hemispherical pattern-change.

Lovely day here. Sun almost continuously from early.

You still seem quite bullish regarding colder weather, Rob.

So they still think the Euro high is staying put? Which models (that we know of) are showing that?