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chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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Everything posted by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

  1. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    My decision to write-off this winter might be correct after all, not that I want it to be!
  2. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Not necessarily. There was a discussion on here a few days back which partially-debunked the "lack of data" theory. Logically, given the number of flights between the 20th and 24th, the data ought to be more complete than normal.
  3. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Merry Christmas - you may infuriate me at times with your blowtorch temperature charts, but you're one of the most invaluable and knowledgeable model commenters here, and this place would be worse-off without you.
  4. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    One-liner I know, sorry mods, but I just have to laugh! Merry Christmas!
  5. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Squall line now passed-through. Gusty winds and very heavy rain.
  6. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Interesting thought experiment, though I doubt many of us would want it to verify given the potential for widespread flooding.
  7. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Front and embedded squall line about to arrive here.
  8. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Indeed - one has to consider the trend rather than individual data points (this is something I learned as a biology student). I'm applying it to meteorology only because, in this case, it fits.
  9. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Cheers.
  10. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Thanks, though, based on that, I wish I hadn't asked!
  11. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Is a central pressure of 925mB even possible in the UK? What sort of windspeeds might we expect with something that powerful?
  12. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    In any normal year I'd agree given that 16 day anomaly models apparently are bad at modelling the effects of pattern changes, but everything feels so 'set' at present that I'm very pessemistic regarding the current setup changing, no matter how much I want it to.
  13. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    See NAEFS 16-day anomaly chart in the following post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3306364
  14. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Very unlikely. Long-range forecasts have, sadly, written-off most of January already. MJO may be heading towards phase 7, but the PV is so powerful this winter that it'll take something incredible to slow it down.
  15. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    I reckon someone towed the UK into the southern hemisphere without us noticing!
  16. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Then, the models are showing a monstrous LP system slamming into the UK and Ireland on New Year's Day with a central pressure of 940 mb, which, if it verifies, would do widespread damage to infrastructure.
  17. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Back OT, I'm very concerned about both the stalling front on Christmas Day for the north-west and that monstrous Atlantic LP for all of us at the New Year.
  18. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    More disappointment: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3306364
  19. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Two posts saying two completely different things. I don't know which model MS is referring to, but the ECM seems to show a continuation of recent conditions as nailed-on to me.
  20. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    It works for polar mammals, so you might be right!* *Actually, if I recall my undergraduate days correctly, I think it's a different type of fat - more brown adipose tissue than human subcutaneous fat.
  21. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    I'm fairly warm-blooded, but that's quite extreme, I'd have thought. Still, must make thngs easier in terms of not having to wear as many layers.
  22. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Oh stuff this, I can't maintain this "convincing myself I'm a mildie" rubbish! I'm just hearing on the news that parts of Cumbria are flooding again, and that's before what they're due to get over Christmas!
  23. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Come on - I'm no model expert, but even I know that the GEM isn't worth the electricity used to power the computer that produces it. As a reformed coldie I know you're searching for something more "wintry", but, apparently, it's further-off than ever at present.
  24. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Sounds good - no bad weather to cause problems.
  25. chrisbell-nottheweatherman
    Unfortunatly, Met Office shows January continuing with mild south-westerlies and rain/cloud, and US forecasters are saying it's almost too late for an SSW this winter. Fixed pattern between now and spring, I'm afraid. I'm trying to force myself to enjoy double-figure temperatures, endless cloud and rain as it's all we're going to get the rest of this winter.
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