chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Best wishes regarding health problems. I'd like to think your prediction is wrong, though! Would a +6C CET suggest the first-ever 20C January day?

Fair point - we all have different views and preferences.

If every dry summer day is hazy with smog where you live, it may be the location rather than the season that you don't like!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, as far as I've read, El Nino winters in the UK are predictable only in terms of their unpredictability!

Brighter this morning; we even had some low sun getting under the approaching veil of high cloud, which was most enjoyable while it lasted given the extreme cloudiness of the last 5-6 weeks. Sadly, it was short-lived, and the cloud has been getting thicker ever since. Ridiculously mild as well.

To accompany my moan tregarding the gloomy conditions we've had for the last three weks here (today being an improvement as we saw a touch of brightness), I must add that, in addition to police officers seeming every more pre-pubescent, the same can be said for posters in weather fora. You must have been born around two months after I I spent a fortnight in Brittany on holiday which we chose as I was in the middle of my French A-levels. I remember that February; it seemed as though spring had come early.

Brief brightness this morning, but not much since.

Slight improvement today - the cloud isn't a unifrorm grey sheet of thick stratus!

I remember that Sir Rob forecast as though it were yesterday. What many of us would give for synoptics like that at present!

There is that, I suppose, particularly when we consider the state of the NHS these days.

Thoroughly miserable day here - cloudy, misty, drizzly, damp and not especially mild yet either.

Damn good idea, I reckon. I suspect quite a few of us would welcome that sort of division of the model thread into "short-range modelling" and "speculative long-range modelling" threads.

It clouded-over again here shortly after I posted that the clouds were clearing - typical!

Cloudy and still here earlier, but the cloud appears to be breaking as I type.

Well, IDO has just written winter off in the MOD thread - the long-range anomalies are showing the current set-up lingering right through until spring, apparently.

Are you saying "winter's over"?

You are he and I claim my £5.

Weatherweb.net reporting the CFS model showing temperatures increasing in the New Year following a cooler Christmas period.

I trust that post was made with some degree of humour?

Thanks. I'm getting the impression that even my assumptions regarding ENSO and the Stratospheric vortex are not as cut-and-dried as I thought. I based this assumption of the following blog article from our own Nick Finnis and from our winter forecast, in particular, the section entitled "ENSO Conclusions": http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6991;sess= http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2015;sess= I presume that factors such as Eurasian snow cover and the QBO are much more predictive in terms of vortex strength than ENSO? As regards the Euro high anomaly, it's interesting to note that data confirms my impression that autumn has been dominated by the Euro high. Its influence can be seen even by an ignoramus like me in the outputs posted in the model discussion thread, in that it's combining with the Greenland tropospheric vortex lobe to generate a south-westerly feed over Western Europe including the UK. I never asserted with any degree of confidence that ENSO could have been influencing the anomalous heights over the continent, but I just wondered whether it could be a factor. By the sounds of it, the concurrently-observed lingering presence of the Euro high and the strong El nino may be coincidental?

Not an unusual set-up for a cold front. Very good photos, by the way.

Thanks knocker. Sounds promising.

He calls them "7 to 10 day mean anomalies" and compares the GFS and ECMWF, but he doesn't specify if they are upper charts or not. He appears to suggest that they are discounting GFS at present as they think it is systematically overstating Atlantic troughing.

Just a hunch, hence "IMO". I certainly can't produce evidence supporting my thoughts.

Evening John - you might like to read my post here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3300192