chrisbell-nottheweatherman

More evidence that we might as well write this winter off: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3305850

To think yesterday I was slammed for writing-off winter in my area; this lot are writing it off for most of the Continent!

Thanks for articulating this point of view, Scott. I know you prefer milder weather, but I think we agree on this point. We're supposed to be weather enthusiasts on here, yet it seems that some want us to only discuss and appreciate the blandest possible conditions lest we like something that may have inconvenienced someone. I'm actually one of those who is being worried-about if the prospect of seasonable weather does appear, as I'm a wheelchair user, yet I'm a moderate coldie. As a motorsport enthusiast, it would be as though people on motorsport forums were made to feel guilty for enjoying and discussing eventful races because boring processions are marginally safer. Trust me, one of the main British-based forums (which has many overseas posters) was full of moans this season after dull races!

I clearly recall the winters of the late '90s-early 2000s period, and I can assure you there were few if any that were as "un-wintery" as the last two were and this one is proving in my area. I can't stress the last point enough - yes, I'm sure there were places that saw no snow for 5 years between 1998 and 2003, and equallyy there were places that saw well over a foot of snow last year, but I'm commnting on East Anglia (where I live) and most of the south-east and southern England.

Do you consider that, if the MJO can get to phase 7, it might be able to dent the strat vortex? I understood from posts from the last few days that the PV was so strong this year that it would take an exteme warming to dent it.

Are you saying that nowhere barring Cornwall had less snow last year than you? If you are, I assure you that you're wide of the mark. If you mean this winter, then I'd like to think you're right.

I wonder whether the post (wish I could recall who made it) the other day saying that the vortex was so powerful this year that it was unlikely to be weakened by anything short of a massive SSW might have been closer to the mark than any cold fan (or even non-mild fan) wanted to admit?

It certainly sounds pretty underwhelming from my point of view, though a reduction in rainfall amounts would surely be sought by those in the north-west.

Thanks Yarmy.

Indeed - I know areas in the north Midlands and further north had quite a bit of snow, but south of there was as you describe. I also would like to point-out that I'm only writing-off this winter fro locations south of a line roughly beween the north Wales coast and the Humber estaury. Northern England and Scotland may well have more seasonal weather, but I just can't see it happening south of there. This also references my feelings regarding a climate shift during winter. I'm not saying it prevents snow in the Highlands, but it does seem to lead to set-ups remaining pretty much the same for weeks on end, which is not characteristic of traditional UK weather.

Sorry, I don't follow your argument - I thought the ECM had no cold potential whatsoever?

What you also have to bear in mind is that much of southern Britain has had two wet, windy and mild winters consecutively, and now we're well into a third where the only differences are that most of the disruptive monsoon rainfall has been in the north-west and the east coast hasn't (yet) had a storm surge as it had two winters ago. Here, we had no snow at all in 2013-14 (a few wet flakes fell for around 30 minutes on one day but melted on touching the ground), and few frosts, and, last winter, we saw almost no frosts and had around 1 cm of snow lying for around 2 hours before it melted. Now, we're having the dullest, cloudiest and gloomiest early winter for years, and it's been so warm yesterday that I was sweating in just a long-sleeved top! To me, denying that this is anything other than the same old varying weather the UK expects in winter is ignoring a large mammal in the room.

There was a post the other day in the model discussion thread from someone (can't recall who) arguing that the vortex is in some kind of self-perpetuating state in which it's pretty much invulnerable to anything short of a massive SSW, and that, unless such an SSW appears in the Strat models, the current patternis very unlikely to change.

As usual, initial sun gave way to cloud and rain.

Absolutely. I'm convinced that 2010 and 2013 were the result of our previous winter climate (mainly Atlantic-dominated, but changeable and often chilly/cold) fading away to be replaced by a new one - mild, extremely wet and cloudy.

More like "Eternal Autumn 2015, 16 and all years until the next glaciation"

Not at all - I'm conceding that you were right.

Well, I criticised someone for saying this only yesterday, but I'm going to say it now - for anyone south of a line from north Wales across to the Humber (which includes me), I'm writing this winter off.

Why do you assume that it's the GFS that's incorrect?

2009 saw a mild December and it got colder later. If we really knew what the weather was going to be like 2 - 2 1/2 months hence, the model thread would be redundant.

I'll hold you two to those statements come late February. If it does stay very mild all the way through to spring, I'll admit that you were right, but I doubt anyone can predict that far out with any confidence.

If it's any consolation, Weatherweb.net are seeing the models hinting at a pattern change just into the New Year.

Which long-range models? I'm not seeing references to this in the model thread.

Surely you've posted this in the wrong thread - or are you doing the thing you've said you think doesn't happen here - mild ramping?!

Cloud was briefly low and heavy earlier, but thinning again now. As far as Im concerned, the comparative brightness is very pleasant, but not the excessive warmth. Even BFTP is forecasting a +6C Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly for January, which would surely make it as warm as this month has been so far.