chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Showers turning to snow here. It's a touch wet, but definitely snow rather than sleet. Haven't been on here so far today as my computer has failed (I'm typing this on my dad's laptop), so I'm not up-to-date with the FAX charts - is that warm sector that we were forecast to have overnight still likely?

Apologies for not replying before now. I suspect you were either on the A11 near Wymondham or at the A140/B1113 junction. Lovely bright end to the day here with some nice cloud formations to my north.

I'm afraid I'm not sure where that is LOL. As a Norfolkman there's a certain amount of "banter" between us and those from Suffolk! Think of a less hostile version of Lancs vs. Yorks.

No problem - I must have misread the outputs. I thought your chances were better than mine.

Also, the forecaster is a Netweather member.

Fair enough - it was your use of "we" rather than "IMBY" which made me moan. It does, but Ian Fergusson has said the Mt Office think that the EURO4 is wrong.

Thanks John/ That information confirms my suspicions, as, very often, I consider the region forecast on the Met Office site to be more accurate than the regional BBC forecasts supposedly provided by the same organisation! Our regional BBC lunchtime forecast today, for example, told us that some had enjoyed a nice morning weather-wise. It appeared that this statement was based on one photo sent to the new BBC weather thing they've set-up which was taken at Cromer showing sunshine - I think the person who submitted it must have taken it shortly after dawn and ignored the looming clouds behind them!

Indeed Steve; that's how I view the probable course of events away from the highest ground in these two regions.

Not all of us! I'm a touch miffed that this seems to be developing into a "Kent and Sussex" regional thread, or, at best, a "SE corner" thread, rather than SE & EA. Apologies for the moan. Anyway, from what has been suggested to me elsewhere on NW, I suspect the exact positioning of snow won't be known until shortly before it happens.

Presumably, the probable flattening of the Azores/Bartlett High by the Atlantic jet as a consequence of Pacific ridging would see the incredibly mild conditions of recent weeks disappear for the time being? Regarding the GFS weak easterly; with SSTs being high at present, how much stronger would the easterly have to be to enable coastal showers?

Thanks. Given the marginal nature of the situation, I would have taken that approach anyway.

Best wishes regarding your dad. Am I getting the right idea here - it seems to my layman's eyes that the models are downgrading the snow chances at the weekend for areas below around 300 metres altitude?

Oh dear, very sorry for your loss.

XCWeather showing 52 mph gusts in Norwich.

Actually, I was wrong - it is pretty windy here, but it isn't blowing onto the windows at this end of the house, so it isn't quite as loud as I expected.

Doesn't seem massively windy here?

Would it be fair to say that, by this stage, the upstream patterns for the weekend and immediate aftermath ought be be somewhat more "in focus" than they were a day or so ago? In other words, if the ECM agrees with the GFS 12z, we might reasonably anticipate the predicted broad-brush pattern to emerge as shown?

Getting a bit more gusty here.

More blustery here now, but not really that bad yet.

Steady rain here for an hour or so, now fading. As I type, there's some low sun creeping through a gap which is lighting-up the underside of what is still predominantly this stratocumulus/stratus cloud to give a strange light.

Wind just picking-up a touch from an almost windless morning.

Strange - he's reputed to be very good.

Do you think that model is likely to verify at that sort of range? I appreciate it's an anomaly output(?); I just wondered whether the reliability towards February is going to so low that it isn't worth bothering with?

According to Weatherweb, it fits with the long-range CFS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_tI808TATo

Cheers - I'm familiar with Shannon Entropy (and entropy in general from Chemistry A-level way back when ) but "Shagwell's Entropy" was a new one to me!