chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Bizarre response. Given that an inxperienced member was asking for more information regarding a vague statement you made about a model, your snide response seems bad-tempered and out-of-place. We're not all experienced Model analysers (I'm certainly not), and this thread should not be a closed shop or exclusionary club. EDIT: I regret posting this and have apologised via. PM to Mods. I stand by my response, but it should not have been made public.

Indeed - the first possibility of weaking of the strat vortex is (according to the post in question) 2 weeks away at minumum, and that the far side of a vortx strengthening.

Given the way that much of Cumbria is underwater, I shudder to think what will happen should the vortex strengthen still further.

I doubt that's set in stone given that they state that confidence in the forecast over the Christmas period is low.

Sadly, we have cloud and, until an hour or so ago, drizzle to accompany the mild weather. That's been the biggest negative from November and the first few days of this month - the heavy, leaden skies.

At the rate we're going at, probably not until the NAMOC shuts-down - give it a couple of centuries!?

That's as maybe; I suspect those flooded-out of their homes in the north-west in the run up to Christmas and through into the New Year might be the exception.

This will no doubt be removed by the moderators (and I apologise to them in advance), but I seem to recall opining that winter was over for at least the rest of 2015 a week or so ago, and was lambasted for it. Now the models are backing me up. In an attempt to get back on-topic, it would appear that todays outouts are agreeing with the GEFS temperature anomalies Knocker posted yesterday - above average for central and southern Britain, with around average in the north.

Could parts of the country be close to this time two years ago in terms of rainfall? Cumbria seems to be in a bad way this evening, and the latest GFS shows no nd to extremely wet, mild SWly conditions, with a short-lived drier spell nexct weekend, apparently, as respite.

Sadly, that drier spell has disappeared on the 12z; indeed, your part of the world appears to in line for much more heavy rain after a short-lived drier period next wekend. Sadly, there's no end in sight to W-SW zonality with strong winds and heavy rain. I fear that, if this verifies, parts of the north-west may be uninhabitable for Christmas.

From glancing at the outputs as they've been quoted, I had much the same impression, which is heartening given that you're much more experienced than I am! I suppose I was thinking as much about newcomers to model outputs an to the forum, who might well be getting quite confused. Enjoy your skiing trip!

Lovely here after that squall line brought heavy rain and gusty winds around midnight.

My moan is based upon how the same model outputs can be interpreted in totally different ways in the MOD thread. Purely in today's posts so far, we've had one post to the effect of "GFS off on one, won't accept there's any pattern change coming before the New Year until Met Office mention it and John Holmes sees it in the 500mb anomaly charts" and another saying something along the lines of "Pattern-change nailed-on mid-month". I suspect the truth is, as always, somewhere between those two extremes, but it doesn't help those like me who are not expert model output interpreters to work out the most likely evolution.

Well, perhaps I should have said "those who prefer mild weather".

MOD thread at present seems to my layman'e eyes all over the place. Cold rampers are cherry-picking charts that suggest wintry weather pre-Christmas, while mild rampers are showing outputs that suggest exceptional warmth this month.

First 20C+ temperature in a winter month?

Indeed - hence (I suspect) why most modern Met Office/BBC broadcat meteorologists adopt what I refer-to as the "at least it's mild" approach - they know most viewers like dull, mild drizzle as it presents the least inconvenience.

Reasonable today, though the longer range appears very unsettled.

To be fair, John, this is the "Moans, ramps, chat and banter" thread.

I tend to agree, and would like to take this opportunity to state that you were not one of the small number of people I was referring to in my comment. Your preferences would certainly not be mine (I'm not a raging coldie but I hate day after day of gloomy midwinter half-light), but I don't consider your posts inflammatory or critical of those whose preferences differ from yours.

Light drizzle is the usual meaning of a "smear".

I often think this is forgotten by certain mild rampers. I don't mind in the slightest someone who prefers mild Atlantic-dominated winter conditions as it's a matter of personal preference, but I have seen cold fans criticised on here in past winters for their preference due to the mildies pointing-out how disruptive snow is and how many people have legitimate reasons to hate it. As a wheelchair user, I should be one of them, yet I found myself disagreeing with the lecture as they seem to forget that endless cloud, wind and rain poses problems for people with S.A.D. and has other deleterious consequences (increased pests during the following summer, for example). Given that every weather type has its downsides, we should all be more tolerant of those whose preferences differ from our own, in particular as the alternative is to not take any interest in the weather at all except as a purely academic exercise.

Yes, Tamara was really criticised (but not in name) for her preferred "discursive" format; I felt that this unfair sniping was a consequence of coldies getting frustrated at the lack of cold signals in the models at present. As a moderate coldie myself, I'd love to see something more "wintry" showing, but, as yet, nothing. Regarding tht squall line, I just saw a members' status update mentioning how weird it is. Almost has the appearance of anaprop, but I presume it is genuine.

Atlantic-dominated weather during the first half of December, but more Polar Maritime air than Tropical Maritime, so there would be brighter, showery conditions following the cold fronts. Nothing too extreme, though. Perhaps a few mild, dry, sunny days in between, but preferably from brief ridges over the UK rather than the limpet Euro High to our SE so we don't have a SW feed bringing dull, drizzly conditions. Small amount of snow on Christmas Eve, thawing after Boxing Day with a milder spell from around the 28th through to a few days after the return to work. Another couple of spells of snowy weather, each lasting around 10-14 days, with plenty of cold, dry, frosty days between them, and a few wet days to keep groundwater reserves high enough to last a potential dry summer. Warming-up from Mid-March In other words, seasonal, with a bit of everything (except anticyclonic gloom) and no one pattern lasting for an excessive length of time.

How far out do you think this pattern holds in terms of confidence, John? Are the anomalies already sufficiently "set" to be able to consider the suggested mid-December pattern change a non-starter to a reasonable confidence interval?