chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Not all of them - Eurasian snow cover is favouring an SSW later in the winter.

Very gusty here now.

You sound like me - I recall as an Undergraduate at UEA using the raised walkways and wondering why I seemed dressed for an entirely different season than almost everyone else! Then again, being a wheelchair user may have had something to do with it!

That squall line or whatever it was semed to weaken before getting here.

To think I was criticised the other day for writing-off a period of time...at least I made it clear that I was working off instinct rather than evidence, and later apologised as I'd been feeling rather defeatist in general at the time. You say you've been misconstrued, but you're really only repeating what others have paraphrased you as saying, just using different wording. If something is "more than probable", it indicats a high degree of confidence; close to near-certainty, in fact, as "probable" is already a fairly string indication.

Cheers. Sounds reasonable, presuming that there would be low heights in the eastern Atlantic?

I see you disagree with th site long-range forecast team, Matt, WRT their suggestion of a pronounced warming through February. Any idea where they might have got that from?

I was merely trying to reassure Peter H that most of the posters I respect felt that the Azores High was being overplayed in some model runs, supported by the fact that it didn't seem to feature in others, and that a Bartlett setup therefore to them, seemed unlikely.

Cloud really appeared in earnest here around lunchtime. I think we may also have had some drizzle, though it didn't show-up on Net Wx radar.

Hasn't that Azores High been appearing and then disappearing a few times in the model runs lately? I get the impression from more experinced people here that it appears to be more likely to be transient.

Stunning here so far today.

Sorry gents. Put it down to a bit of despondency and an instinct which is probably well wide of the mark. I just wondered whether the "no more snow in lowland Britain" stuff, overhyped as it was at the time, might have had a degree of truth behind it?

Thanks for that, Rob. I think I had you down as more of a mild ramper than you are.

My dad for one hates cold and snow, and always has, so such people do exist!

Thanks Yarmy. I do apprciate that the cause of the last two winters might not have anything to do with AGW, and I'm aware that the predicted reduction in AMOC was over-hyped in the media a few years back. Regarding 2010 and 2013, they, if anything, made me wonder whether the opposite was happening; wre our winters going to be more severe in future? I'm not great with recalling exact dtails, so I'd like to know what your impression was, but it seemed that here, 2010 was colder, but 2013 was snowier.

LOL! I stress I wouldn't know from the models or global feedbacks whether a blizzard was expected next week; I'm getting concerned that this might well be another mild, dull, wet winter in much the same vein as the last two down here based on posters here who seem to know their stuff. For all that Rob and Scott annoy me sometimes with their love of mild, gloomy drizzle, they seem to have a reasonable idea of what the likely outcomes are. John Holmes is, in his usual cautious way, seeing nothing other than Atlantic zonality either, AFAIK.

You sound rather like me!

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear; I should have added that I was referring to both altitude and latitude when I used the phrase "Lowland Britain". I appreciate that you're technically not in the Highlands, but, perhaps you're far enough North to be an exception. I did try to make it clear that it was a personal hypothesis and not supported by any science. I don't know what your views on AGW are, but, for the purposes of this discussion, it doesn't matter what the cause(s) is/are; surely the measured warming is real. I honestly don't know whether climate researchers claim to be able to predict with any accuracy the long-term effect of climate change on UK winters, but I'd imagine that there must be some uncertainty (I would doubt that p<0.05, for example).

There are enough knowledgeable posters here saying the same thing to make me think they might be correct. In fact, I have a (personal and very unscientific) pet hypothesis that the experts who said that lowland Britain wouldn't see snow post-2010 were right, but just a few years premature. The past two winters, when taken into context with how this one appears to be heading, makes me wonder whether climate change has so comprehensively altered the NH winter that it tips the UK past the point of no return.

Not a moan or a ramp, but I presume you expect a mild/very mild winter? I know you want a mild winter, but that isn't the same thing!

Actually, in winter, they seem to think we never want to sun! Any mention of sun during the winter comes with a disappointed facial expression and a dark reference to "getting colder", whereas cloudy, drizzly mild winter weather is referenced in a neutral manner until the "at least it will be mild" reference is trotted-out, at which point the presenter's disposition (ironically) brightens. Most of the cold fans amongst the forecasters have gone (I always think of Sir Rob who could barely contain his enthusiasm when cold weather was in the forecast). I think they presume that we're all blithering idiots who have no idea of how to adapt to what, in most cases, is a minor amount of disruption. For me, the worst of the current lot is Jay whatshisname, who seems to be a broadcast meteorolgist who hates any sort of "weather", i.e. anything of any interest.

We spent the day with friends north of Norwich. Frequent showers with hail and sleet during the day.

I don't know whether this affects the discussion at all, but Weatherweb.net have released a video in which they examine the CFS anomalies through until mid-December, and, after brief meriodional flow this coming week, they're indicating a mean pattern which is pretty much flat zonal. Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uIINurSVb0

Just wet here - and I'm higher than Norwich (40 metres amsl approximately). EDIT - just having a squally shower of what appears to be hail, or maybe graupel?

Reading the MOD thread, I'm utterly confused. We're either going to go cold again later this week, or tropical maritime air is going to come back, with temperatures above average.