hotsummer

I posted about the chances of a re-warm up citing could you imagine. Now imagine this - hit 40c Mon then exceed Tues and hit again in the same year. It’s seems most unlikely but just seeing showing as a chance is enough. Mental. Anyway, it does seem a drop from Weds before a trend towards 30c for a bit?

There’s been a few flutterings of it, but heat from next weekend on 00Z not only arriving but staying for the entire last week of July - 30c plus (and into mid 30s) for 8 days! Could you imagine if that even came off? it would be quite remarkable. A possibility given heat so close by - just an example in FI lol (27/7/22). 20c line right near, 15c well in. 564dam almost positioning itself as its own Hadrian’s wall. Jetststream pushed further north than now and early next week!

I know this isn’t strictly a summer comment but it’s related. I was thinking how I’d always been told, and you often here, how the UK doesn’t get extremes. But: • This potential 40c • Other recent heatwaves hitting and exceeding 35c • Storm Eunice • Flooding • Beast from the East • Even some of the thunderstorms in recent years have been quite beefy. Many a small island wouldn’t see such extremes!

It was over 20c on Mon, Tues and Weds at that time (albeit not got all).

Hmm, I guess time will tell? Can you imagine though. 2022 would be a classic. But anyway, signs on GFS of a the cool-down staying above average before a return toward 30c.

But apparently it’s ‘just summer’ - though I guess that is true to the extent it isn’t going to happen in another season! I digress; I’m not sure it’ll be quite that bad - hell etc. Even so, I almost can’t imagine it hitting 40c though. It looks to be higher elsewhere in the UK, certainly relative to what they’ve seen in any previous summer heat. This is a problem for sure. Not to say it isn’t for anyone, but largely for the SE I don’t think there’ll be a significant feeling of wow on what we’ve seen in recent years.

Doubtful. Low humidity and high heat can bring on dehydration. People may feel it’s ok but the false sense of security… it’s a hazard either way. I recall one summer in Dubai. Blazing hot with DP well into 20s. Went off into interior UAE. Stepped out the ac vehicle and my word, the dry heat I could instantly feel. It was like the skin tightened. Very peculiar. Now, we’re unlikely to get quite so hot, and so dry, but it still shows the effect…

Yup, having lived in India it does have a system relative to its climate. Unfortunately excess deaths are common in summer months. Many the countries mentioned when people cite ‘so and so deal with it’ have warning systems in place. I mean it seems some are even offended because weather maps are red . I had a quick look and here in SE we’ve breached 35c in 5 out of the last 10 years (this spell included). And it has hit or passed 32c (magic 90f) 9/10. 37c plus has occurred in (what looks to be) 3/4 years since 2019. The worst I find, in last decade, was 2014 with just one 30c and that was the max! Is this similar outside this region? Not quite. So SE wise, mid 30s and definitely the low 30s isn’t really that unusual and probably the most prepared. Similarly with high night temps. But this isn’t just the SE although I’m not sure we’ll get past 38c here! But it’s parts that will never have seen even 35c (maybe even 90f) let alone what’s forecast! Not everyone has been abroad. So it’s a warning very relative. It’s simply a case of making people aware!

On its Twitter space, Met Office said we’d see increasing humidity. Makes sense if storms are to roll in but they seemed to make a point of it being a factor along with the heat. A DP of 15c or so would probably add to the sticky feel even though that wouldn’t be such a high RH%.

FYI - very interesting Twitter space from Met Office right now. If you follow them you can listen in. Interesting speakers onboard so far!

FYI - very interesting Twitter space from Met Office right now. If you follow them you can listen in. Interesting speakers onboard so far!

At DPs in single digits or subzero then it’ll feel dry yes. The only oppression will be the heat itself which tbh I feel is often the case here. People mistake heat and hot houses (which can have an affect akin to high DPs) for high humidity where it makes an actual significant difference. It’s not often DPs get too high here. That said, to see high temps and low DPs (as low as suggested) will be quite something given what we’re surrounded by! I’m not sure how this will play with storm potential? I could only see dry storms? But it seems all finely balanced. We shall see…

This isn’t too uncommon in hot airmasses. Usually the lower the DP the higher the temp can rise. And I guess this is technically a dry airmass rather than a ‘tropical’ one. Like Dubai, it can have either - high or low DPs. 28c not unusual but on occasion you’ll see single digits. But go inland UAE and it’ll almost always been low. Freezing not uncommon. Lack of warm seas. Seville earlier today was 42c with a DP of 4c. And here I suspect the hot air is aided by lack of moisture specially on Monday?

Yes, it was quite cloudy through summer bar those spells. Temps fine without being of any note. But normal temps with all that cloud, that fees like something in itself. Just fleeting, rather hot, spells amidst meh. Not as cloudy as 2021 mind. Wow Jan 2022 almost had more sun than that August!!

Looking like the heat may take a more westerly but direct hit on the UK meaning quite a bit of France avoids a serious blowtorch scenario? Beyond Mon/Tues it’s looking possibly like the cooldown doesn’t affect the south so much (high 20s to 30c) with a further trend upwards. Slight signs of another possible mid-30c stab by next weekend? Monday night looks unreal though, and there’s been signs of slightly cooler air in south. But I do wonder if any ‘earlier’ sweep away on Tues may come only after already hitting national records given the significant head start temps will have. Could those further north achieve such high temps with the southern quarter being a few degrees cooler (as as shown up at times)? Apologies, complete amateur trying to fathom the current outlook.

Interestingly, 2020 was when we had the heat it cooled then turned up again for a few days in mid 30s. Almost being mirrored here.

37.9c 2019 37.8c 2020 (then three 35c in the same year during that Aug spell)

This brings me onto another thought. Further pushbacks then meaning higher uppers come at the wrong time and it all falls short? All finely balanced indeed

Yeah, so it seems for the ‘peak’ the higher temps have edged just that bit north on a few runs I thought. Going further now. Local records defo under threat, national perhaps and that’ll be outside SE. It seems that for one of the more ‘extreme’ spells we see the highest outside the SE. Surely that in itself is quite a feat. All this aside. We’d likely have been happy with beyond that as so far it seems very good indeed. But I know that things can go ‘wrong’ this far out.

Frankly, not seeing this. We’ve had 37c/38c more than once since 2003. That wasn’t hideous/dreadful. It was just very hot and that’s all it looks. Now this seems to shows below mid 30s in SE so defo no record here on Tues with highest north of. So I think that looks like a UK record maybe just perhaps 39c? EDIT: What are the local records for those areas further N showing the max? Local records could well be smashed even if overall not so much.

But further pushback then we end up with the higher uppers coming at the wrong turn to translate into records never mind extreme. I don’t know, just seems to remain further along - it was once Sat. Mid 30s I’m not sure is extreme. Hot but not extreme. In a way I’m surprised the MO released its warning all this far ahead. There’s been persistence in showing 40c but it’s always x far. And I don’t recall any other mid-30 event getting this, which seems maybe more likely. Even the high winds didn’t even see a red alert until hourly hours despite it being almost clear the impact was going to be during peak hours and needed red. A tile off a house in those winds on the bonce and it could be goodnight Vienna. Peak hours in urban area = high risk. So here they must either be playing safe or have high enough confidence that there is a good chance of an ‘extreme’ event. Certainly been interesting though.

But GFS seems to have ‘cooler’ temps across SE on Tues (cooler relative to those north of SE)? 40c is seeming a stretch now, I mean there was persistence and wow at times over. But push backs and then what appears to be changes from south perhaps we may see record, just?

Hi all, I always just observe but when we get spells of extremes my interest goes up. This, the beast from the east, the storm this year winter. But this spell has helped me learn a bit about the models. I tend to pick up more during such spells than the benign sort of weather - things are highlighted. Plus there’s way more commentary. Anyway, where I struggle to read the model outlook is how the GFS seems to to be so poor at times. But it’s also been useful. So for this upcoming potential it was showing times of 40c + yet reality will be a bit of a divergence. Not only that but Tues seems to suggest a difference between SE and further North. Showers/cloud it seems coming in? Tues could see a record but towards Lincs…no? The hottest point seems to push back, could we end up with it pushed back again and gain but then curtailed due to ‘unfavourable’ conditions for this ‘extreme’ heat? I guess the next day or so starts to firm up. Anyway, I can’t say I’ve ever seen the GFS like this. I know it wasn’t a strong consensus but it was persistent and that was in my view suggesting something. So, beyond this heat it seems a cool down (but above average) before a reload albeit less hot. I almost get the sense that the more intense the heat the cooler it may be after… Cheers

Hi all, been quite some time since I posted. Mere observer! Posted on SE thread but here there seems to be a wider reach, and quite a lot of discussion re warnings. My view on this is… For the SE I’m wondering why there appears to be only an amber warning for tomorrow despite apparent likely wind speeds? I’d have thought with those speeds… - and a large and densely populated area - a large (very) urban areas - and tall/densely packed buildings in parts creating increased local speeds with the fact there is a greater population ^ …would result in an increased risk of injury etc. More buildings to be damaged means greater risk of flying debris (notwithstanding garden items), and with more people meaning a higher chance of someone copping it. Or is it that the winds aren’t so likely to cause quite this despite the greater chance of something flying and hitting someone or a moving car etc. I see reasons for it in the SW. Looks very bad, but it’s hardly looking much less around the SE - the most densely populated part. I’ve seen us with gusts of over 50mph and it’s been ok. I don’t know if it’ll get much over that. To me it seems it could be unlikely if I take warnings at face value. Public perception is key here I feel. I can only assume it won’t be quite that bad on this basis. And seemingly this is the perception. This is hardly the amber first warning we’ve had for weather and the events have never posed much of an issue. So people get complacent with that level. Having just got in I saw numerous bins out on the paths and drives. Soon they’ll be parted from their owners. Park bins with some tied up bags next to them too, and a few very full but this isn’t too unusual with the local parish! Not only that but I’ve also seen someone on my Twitter feed wishing their SW followers luck for tomorrow seemingly unaware that we’ll have a little more than a breeze here! And with so much more around is this a good thing to have millions thinking? So yeah, it must be the risk isn’t great enough and it won’t be quite that bad?? Having read on here I get the feeling it will be bad, but then more officially less so! I’ve seen some charts posted looking lower in terms of max wind speed.

Hi all, been quite some time since I posted. Mere observer! Anyway… So I’m wondering why there appears to be only an amber warning for tomorrow despite apparent likely wind speeds? I’d have thought with those speeds… - and a large and densely populated area - a large (very) urban areas - and tall/densely packed buildings in parts creating increased local speeds with the fact there is a greater population ^ …would result in an increased risk of injury etc. More buildings to be damaged means greater risk of flying debris (notwithstanding garden items), and with more people meaning a higher chance of someone copping it. Or is it that the winds aren’t so likely to cause quite this despite the greater chance of something flying and hitting someone or a moving car etc. I see reasons for it in the SW. Looks very bad, but it’s hardly looking much less around the SE - the most densely populated part. I’ve seen us with gusts of over 50mph and it’s been ok. I don’t know if it’ll get much over that. To me it seems it could be unlikely if I take warnings at face value. Public perception is key here I feel. I can only assume it won’t be quite that bad on this basis. And seemingly this is the perception. This is hardly the amber first warning we’ve had for weather and the events have never posed much of an issue. So people get complacent with that level. Having just got in I saw numerous bins out on the paths and drives. Soon they’ll be parted from their owners. Park bins with some tied up bags next to them too, and a few very full but this isn’t too unusual with the local parish! Not only that but I’ve also seen someone on my Twitter feed wishing their SW followers luck for tomorrow seemingly unaware that we’ll have a little more than a breeze here! And with so much more around is this a good thing to have millions thinking? So yeah, it must be the risk isn’t great enough and it won’t be quite that bad?? Having read on here I get the feeling it will be bad, but then more officially less so!