[Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards]

I've been keenly observing this for a few days now... This summer is starting to get fired up and despite some very early season misfires (due mostly to the atmosphere, sea and surface temps not quite getting where we needed them) these small but regular plume set-ups seem to be delivering the goods.

Some more widespread storms wouldn't be unwelcome but I'm quite happy with a weekly rinse-and repeat - at least until October ;-)

Also I'd like to add that on reflection last night's events were particularly enjoyable because I learned a few things (which I always do - being a novice chaser!) but also got to experience and capture some remarkable lightning forks. Maybe not as professional as I'd like but that's the fun of practicing I guess!

If I had the option I would actually quite happily donate next week's action to those in the northern and western areas who missed out last night - as well as those in Kent and extreme SE who didn't get anything despite a level 2. Feel your pain and good luck for the next few weeks!

Ok back to work now...

Good remark. This rinse and repeat idea seems to be all well but it would be nice to see the track of the storms be slightly different each Thursday-Saturday 'attempt' so the areas that always miss them (Guildford) finally get a chance and that the areas that have repeatedly done well this summer, miss out for a change. 

 

The issue this year is that the storms form in one area, usually not too far from the Guildford area then move away in a straight line (or lines) developing further north to N.E. or E.N.E. depending on the upper wind direction. The area of storms is usually very narrow, so coverage is very limited unless sufficiently lucky to be in the firing line. Frontal storms developing at an angle to the prevailing direction of movement then moving in an arc will cover a much greater area, an example being 17th/18th July 2014 which was an impressive event even in Guildford. Frontal storm activity has been lacking this summer and despite all these thunder events - thunder has only been heard on 4 days this year, last night's show-down amounting to two distant muffled rumbles. However the lightning, about 30 flashes, is the best this year SO FAR (last two words emphasized as I really hope there will be more chances and that we are not descending into a horrible cool and wet August and September having had the warmth of the summer). 

 

Rain is expected as Guildford area is in drought, the last measurable rain being 1.2 mm on 28th June, 19 days ago, and last reasonable total, 6.5 mm on 22nd June. Pity this extremely dry summer is an 'unsettled' one and not a sunny one. Looks like 2015 is shaping up to be like 1921, an extremely dry year but have little info on whether the summer was good or incidence of thundery activity.

 

Dry spells like this, Summer 2015 currently much drier than 1976!, often lead to a compensatory wet period. A hot thundery wet August like 1997 followed by dry sunny September like 1997 (holiday planned in first half) would be a perfect development on the current state. The resulting wet weather and potential for a decent storm to arrive before the holiday would make the next 6 weeks more enjoyable than the last 6, and I promise to contribute something better than moan posts on this site!   

[The No Storms Club July 2014 Onwards]

Right, Grumble Time.

 

The purpose of this post is to evaluate and illustrate that 2015 is a truly dire year in central Southern England and the examples given prove how there has been plenty of bad luck here this year and that interesting events have been lacking in a major way. I will also be exploring a bizarre coincidence about the timing of these all-too-frequent let-downs with thunderstorm events. 

 

2015 needs to be called 'The Year of the Let-Down'. 

 

Background: Winter 2014/2015 was the second consecutive virtually snow-free winter in Guildford and unlike in 2013/2014, there was frequent emphasis on snow further north, especially in January when 'cold zonality' was the dominant synoptic situation. Snow even fell in Cornwall, accompanied by thunder on the 13th.The month was beginning to be like January 1984, when Central Southern England (hereafter CSE) missed out badly on the heavier snow which affected the Midlands northwards. Unlike 2015, 1984 went on to be a good year for thunder events in a 'good' but not roasting hot summer. 

 

Last winter was subjectively the most unpleasant for 9 years, 2005/2006, which was also snow-less with local areas missing out while much of the U.K. had some snow. The main issue in 05/06 was the constant 'promise' of a major easterly freeze which was dominating the rest of Europe, moving west. Although frequently indicated, this surge of exceptionally cold air and heavy snow never made it into the S.E. 2006 went on to produce a memorable summer and some very thundery weather, although IMO, we did not do too well for quality of thunder events in Guildford and just had a lot of days when thunder was heard (23 days). Interestingly, the first thunder of 2006 was very late (8th May) like this year (19th May), the moral of this being that the second half of the year could perform very well indeed and catch up. 

 

I will keep this report to the issues with lack of thunder rather than other niggles about 2015, of which there are plenty. Suffice to say. 2015 has also been a very dry year, the current rainfall standing at around 250 mm, in 2014, this level having been reached by mid-February! The dryness is fine, but it would be great if it could be accompanied by proper anticyclonic weather with sunshine, light winds and little cloud and not and endless procession of weak or mediocre Atlantic fronts from the west accompanied by a frequent nuisance breeze, which is now blowing much dust around as the ground is now so dry. Today, the status of absolute drought has been reached as there has been no measurable rain for 14 days. Despite the dryness in 2015, this is the first time the drought threshold has been reached as the usual scenario of a mediocre amount of rain arriving at the 11th hour on the 13th day prevents the threshold being reached. The grumbles about another Atlantic dominated year will also be left out of this report.

 

Thunderstorm let-downs versus successes in Guildford in 2015: Here is a comprehensive list of thunder events that I remember in 2015 so far and illustrates how badly we have done this year.

 

(1) Tuesday 13^th January: Unstable westerly. Heavy rain at lunchtime, heavy enough to expect thunder. Get none and find thunder was widespread locally, including Bracknell, Wokingham and Reading. Evening brought another ‘trough’ which gave severe hailstorm, heavy snow and covering accompanied by thunder at Par, Cornwall.

(2) Sunday 1^st March: Afternoon torrential rain, Thunder really expected from the warnings in forecast. None heard locally but plenty further east towards London including Croydon.
(3) Tuesday 3^rd March: Coastal showers with thunder not too far south. See one flash at 5:30 am on bike ride then soaked in horrid cold rain (raining at 1.5~3 deg.C with not a trace of sleet, snow or even hail).
(4) Tuesday 19^th May – 1^st thunder of 2015: Thundery showers in general area. Afternoon thunder from thundery showers to south and north missing Guildford. Spectacular hail at Woking and eastern Guildford, <2 miles from my address.
(5) Friday 29^th May: Squally cold front just after midday. Heavy rain. Thunder was reported from Horsley, about 6 miles to east. None heard here.

(6) Friday 5^th June: Plume failure No.1. Dry with medium level threatening cloud in morning. Thunder over Kent and Sussex and as far west as east Surrey, just too far away to hear locally.

(7) Friday 12^th/Saturday 13^th June: Plume failure No.2. Almost identical to previous week except the storms persist in Kent and move north in evening. Muffled rumble heard at Fleet around 10 pm. Lightning but no thunder reported from Guildford.
( Saturday 20^th June: Instability with approaching cold front. Brief heavy rain. Thunder heard in north Guildford, none where I was, despite working outdoors during entire event!
(9) Tuesday 30^th June – Second thunder event of 2015: Only ‘surprise’ event of year with <5 lightning flashes and thunder just after 10 pm in hot and increasingly unstable.
(10) Wednesday 1^st July: Severe thunderstorms further north. Their forecast being very accurate and spot on. Guildford misses out again – this was expected but not a satisfactory event.
(11) Thursday 2^nd July: Major heat breaks down with a puff of wind locally and more storms up north. Thundery showers were forecast for CSE so this was yet another total flop and just like that awful 28^th June 2012, with the Newcastle area getting hammered by golf ball sized hail, again while we get altocumulus castellanus and an unstable sky to the east and fluffy cumulus blowing in on the increasingly fresh breeze from the S.W. signalling another ‘game over’ before it even had a chance to begin.

(12) Friday 3^rd/Saturday 4^th July – Third thunder event of 2015 but only just: The definitive event to get excited about with potential for something special. Two cells develop as per forecast and move north leaving an inverted ‘V’ in CSE with NO lightning activity. See some distant lightning and 20 minutes of thunder at Fleet just after midnight. Slight shower. Major event over Kent, London, Dorset and Wilshire moving north so northern areas get another major event.

(13) Sunday 5^th July: Another Kent and east based event, although slight. 15 mm rain forecast for Guildford from west returning warm front fails to move far enough west. Dry all day. Thundery showers over northern England, possibly more widespread than originally forecast.
(14) Monday 6^th July: Some isolated thundery showers in Northern England.
(15) Tuesday 7^th July: Rain on fronts was lighter than forecast, so much that amount that fell was not measurable. Thunder develops further north over the usual areas including Lincolnshire… again. No chance of anything further south and that irritating breeze is picking up again instead.       

 

On Saturday 28^th June, looking at the maps for 1^st/2^nd July with the emphasis on the north having all the storms and after all those annoying east-shunted Kent clippers in June, I had a horrible thought that July may be north dominated month for storms, here on 7^th July it looks like this thought was justified. Maybe the first week of July but can’t see anything remotely worthwhile next week and the S.W.ly dross is back anyway, so no chance for Guildford.

 

One expects to miss some events but not miss out EVERY time such as what is happening in 2015, and after such a long absence of thunder beforehand. Thunder somewhere in the UK every day in July so far, last time there was more than 4 days of thunder heard in a month was April 2008!

 

Coincidences about thunder let-down event dates:

Many of the let-downs, especially with the plume-type have occurred on a Friday / Saturday. This pattern started in September 2014, the boundary where the pleasing increased thundery activity in 2014 returned to the typical scenario suffered in the preceding 7 years. Friday 19^th/Saturday 20^th September 2014 brought a surprise plume event after 2 days of mediocre activity locally. This missed CSE / local areas by the usual 20~30 miles and affected east London and Kent. Similarly in October, Thursday 9^th brought thundery showers locally. This was the last thunder I heard in 2014 and would have to wait until 19^th May for the next. Meanwhile on Friday 10^th and Saturday 11^th, continued south coastal showers brought more thunderstorms to Kent and inland into Sussex and east London, just too far away to see the cloud-top flashes from Guildford. Similarly, in November, there was thundery shower activity along the south coast from about the 3^rd~9^th but not one single distant flash was seen nor did any of this activity survive the 40 mile trip inland. Thundery showers from coastal events in unstable SW airflow often affect Guildford in the autumn.

It is also strange that all these Friday night / Saturday morning fail events have occurred at ‘weekends’ when I have visited my father in Fleet (Hampshire), an area that is even more storm-starved than Guildford. My visits are planned months in advance due to working hours and commitments so it was not just going away on a whim when these let-down situations develop.

Furthermore, a half-hearted breakdown occurred on Friday 6^th/Saturday 7^th June 2014, hours before I went to Cornwall. On arrival I was told that the storm on the evening of the 6^th at Par Beach was quite impressive. The only impressive Friday night / Saturday morning event to affect Guildford in the last 13 months in this discussion in an impressive capacity was a week later when a 3~4 hour ‘surprise’ southward slow moving area of thunderstorms brought 43 mm rain. Quite typically, this occurred the night before I arrived home – culminating in the worst missed-storm event I have ever had my misfortune to experience. There have been plenty of these over the years. To add to the bad luck, the work security camera system failed to record the event, the cameras failing 5 pm on the 13^th and working by 9 am, Saturday 14^th. I am so fearful about missing interesting weather when on holiday that since 1995 or so I have asked people to take notes in my absence! It seems the chances of interesting weather at my holiday venue are never reciprocated. I thought the security camera idea would work well as it has a view of the car park where the intensity of the rain and lightning could be watched against a time-base. I was convinced correctly that something would kick off while away. Even the security guard was upset on my behalf about the camera failure and bad luck as he thought I might have at last circumvented the bad-luck curse that shadows me with anything meteorologically interesting.      

 

Needless to say, constant disappointment missing out on much wanted and craved for thunder events saps morale and there is plenty of time to fester about the frustration with little else to on which to focus and the boring atlantic S.W.ly dross has now returned again and probably take months to shift again. This boredom is especially when at work and unable to spend time on activities and hobbies including cycling which actually makes good use of the boring conditions provided that infernal wind isn’t blowing, and therefore can take mind off the boredom.   

 

Sorry for the length of this post, but I really wanted to have my say this time.    

[Summer of Heaven]

Lots of hot and dry sunny weather with low humidity when having a break between lots of thunderstorms.

Thundery conditions at least once a week when higher humidity would be acceptable. Occasionally more than one day of thunderstorm activity per week.

Absolutely no frontal rain, drizzle or humid muck without storms.

No annoying persistent breezes with chilly conditions, except a light breeze during the hottest days and squally wind during the huge and unprecedented number of thunderstorms in Guildford. 

No frustrating missing thunder events and getting NOTHING. If a nearby location gets 3 hours of thunder and we get only 1 hour, fine, but it would be our turn on another occasion.

Thunderstorm forecasts which favour Guildford which don't get downgraded or go tits up for a change.

Surprise thunderstorms when nothing is forecast would be nice.

No interesting events when away on holiday so I don't miss anything.

Lots of pleasant sunny weather during my Cornwall holidays.

Absolutely NO ATLANTIC MUCK at ANY time.

 

and, oh yes, summer lasts from April to October. Not asking a lot, is it?

 

Best examples of my 'dream' summers would be 1983, 1989, 2003 or 1959 if I had been alive back then. 

[The No Storms Club July 2014 Onwards]

Let-down No.3 in this EXTREMELY BORING MONTH. Filthy humid evening and unpleasant to work in.

 

Gnawing headache all evening now worsening with accompanying nausea courtesy of this humid thunder-less muck. Always seem to get headaches in this situation, less so if we get thunder. 

 

Brief period of heavy rain resulting in getting soaked (too warm to wear plastic impermeable wet weather gear they supply at work) and only 12 hours to dry this out before next shift - yet again nothing to show for it.

 

Thunder was 5-6 miles away, as usual. Working outdoors one would expect to hear even distant thunder. Never here in Guildford it seems - just irritating traffic noise and garbage music blasting from the open windows of cars. Normally, thunder should be loud enough to be heard over other noise (I have good hearing, good ear for sound & perfect pitch etc and can detect sound over sound etc).  

 

These let-downs seem to come every week on a Friday or Saturday. Will it be fourth week lucky next Saturday or will more atlantic dross kill off any other chances?  

[The No Storms Club July 2014 Onwards]

Another let-down. Only one day with thunder heard in Guildford in 2015 and that was from an area of heavy showers and awesome hailstorm that affected Woking (Tuesday 19th May) and missed my locality. A truly dreadful year - no snow in the winter and now another 2010 style el-crappo useless thunder-less summer. At least in 2010 the pitiful low number of thunder days and weakness of the events was offset by some decent winter weather and snow at either end of the year. 

 

Here's hoping the second half of 2015 will be better than the first.

 

Just cycled 13 miles around Guildford countryside in the dark in hope of seeing any distant lightning towards the coast. Not a thing and not even any illumination in the cloud tops when the sky started to clear as the first let-down moving north from france dies out having dumped its load over the English Channel and IOW. 

 

Forecast suggested over 40 mm rainfall & 62% thunder probability for this area overnight Friday - Saturday in evening forecast (something to get excited about for once), after suggesting 10~15 mm on Friday all week, downgraded to 4 mm at tea time today. Now its been downgraded to 5~10 mm again. Probably get drizzle if we're 'lucky'.

 

Anyway, look on the bright side, it will be Christmas in 136 days and we might have had one clap of thunder by then.   

[The No Storms Club July 2014 Onwards]

Here we go again.

 

Another near miss and the usual areas get all the action. The rest of day going to be more crud and now another long wait for any other potential.

 

Weeks of atlantic dross with useless rainfall amounts, no thunder except a few distant rumbles on Tuesday 19th May when Guildford misses out on the massive hailstorm at Woking. Never known such an awful year - a truly dire winter with virtually no snow and now a useless thunder-less summer. At least in the abysmal thunder-deficient years of 2009, 2010 and 2011 we had decent snow events in the winter.

 

More tedious waiting. Will we ever see a decent plume situation without that ************* eastward shift?

[Who still hasn't had any snow yet?]

I have started a thread for those, like myself in S.E. England, who have yet to see the first snow of winter.

 

This is a sort of moan thread but can also be considered as a No Snow thread and is not just biased specifically at the models and the ups and downs of model-watching. There there is already a good thread for the model aspects of any forthcoming cold and snow in the model section.  

 

I would be interested to hear how winter 2014/2015 compares with other poor performers for snow and snow-lessness especially with biased regional distribution like this season.

 

Feel free to have a good grumble... I think there will be a lot of dissatisfied snow loving southerners by the coming weekend... All are welcome here. I will add my thoughts on round three of 'cold' coming in this very disappointing winter so far, as things progress. I don't hold out much hope at present.     

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Give me last winter any day - this winter has so far been the most drab/boring/dull nothingness I've know for a while. Last winter at least had the excitement of some decent storms - will never forget the trips to Chesil Beach to watch some pretty impressive swells barrelling in

Not just the excitement of storms last year. No missing out on the snow, near misses, or dross like Boxing day, much of last week, Sunday, today etc. Fronts also pushed through quicker with lovely winter sunshine to follow, last year, whereas this year, the dross hangs about as frontal activity is slow moving, such as today's snow let-down.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

It is over mushy!!! Us cold weather fans can only take so many let downs and defeats before we throw in the towel. I feel utterly punch drunk with this winter so far my mind is now firmly looking forward to spring!!!

Another let-down on the way in the south tonight. Usual story, wrong side of marginal - yet more cold rain and dismal waste of time cold conditions. Snow north of M4 again, like on Boxing Day and forecast will be 100% correct (as south will have yet another near miss). Funny (well, not really) how Sunday's snow forecast for the south didn't materialise and it was cold rain dross as before. 

 

We're not even out of this 'cold' spell yet and it is game over. I take the FI cold snap of early February with extreme caution. Besides it's another northerly - useless for snow in central southern England. If we can't get snow, unless it is frosty and sunny weather, cold conditions are a complete waste of time and inhibit the enjoyment of outdoor activities - cross country cycling being the only thing that I can engage in to forget this dreadful winter and that isn't fun in damp and windy marginal muck. Sick of being confined to camp indoors when it isn't snowing but too cold to enjoy anything else. 

 

Currently, I rank this worse than 1983/1984 and 2005/2006. Only 1992/1993 was worse - however I am comparing 51 days of this winter with complete seasons in the past. The three other listed winters all yielded some snow, but amounts were very disappointing. This winter has yielded none. Last year was not seen as a dreadful winter, despite a complete absence of snow, as the deluge of rain was accompanied by comfortable mild conditions and the events were interesting. There were also several winter thunderstorms and hail (something else not seen this winter). It is these marginal snow events where this part of the south always misses out then there is a long wait for the next cold opportunity which is just another let-down that makes this type of winter so unpleasant.

 

Roll on spring, if things can't improve.       

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

This spell is becoming a bit of a disappointment to me and those in southern half of the UK. Frankly it's the worse type of winter weather for me, a degree or two the wrong side of marginal, so no snow but I still have to take a hit oh the heating costs...

This morning near miss and the latest runs confirm that - rain at 2 degrees and then we see runs that extend the marginal cold a bit longer..

Frankly if I can't have snow, I'm not interested and would rather the whole lot buggered off and saved a few quid on the gas bill.

Ran over. Back to bed and then off to see the hammers.. So not all bad.

Enjoy your Sunday folks

Woke up to the usual wintry landscape of grey wet roads and pavements, bare tree branches. Grey overcast skies. 

Went outside and made rain-balls, built a rain-man and then had a rain-ball fight. Took the sledge to work scraping against the wet concrete and tarmac and dissolved salt and grit particles where a gritter had gone past last night for some odd reason.

Looked in the rain gauge and measured 2.5 mm without having to melt any of the elusive white stuff.

What a funny morning... I thought it was supposed to snow.

 

Still not seen a single flake of snow here in Guildford. More snow fell in MAY 1997 than this dreadful winter from Hell. 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Are they really more reliable than they were 20+ years ago?

 

I remember a newspaper article at the start of January 1976 titled, "30 days of mild and dry". January 1976 was Bartlett High dominated with mild and dry weather until about the 26th when very cold easterlies took over - unfortunately little snow.

 

Models as good or better in 1976 than now?

 

My father who did a stint in the Odiham met-office said forecasting was just as accurate as it is today in 1955/1956!

 

I have been holding off having a moan on here as moan threads are all I ever seem to contribute. With the most restraint as possible, I rate this winter the most unpleasant and vile since the 2005/2006 winter which was dominated by constant promises then let-downs, very little snow and thoroughly unpleasant conditions for outdoor working an leisure, especially in February. Most other parts of the UK saw decent snow including a major snow event in Cornwall in late November. The slightly below average temperature theme of that winter accompanied by such disappointing weather has given me a life long dislike of snow-less cold. To add insult to injury that disgusting winter was followed by a cold and unpleasant March with Guildford missing all the snow again. One just wants to get into spring and put such miserable winters behind them. 

 

I now feel cold weather is only worth having if there is snow or radiation cold with sunshine & frost or perhaps fog with rime on trees. I am not interested in rain at 1 deg.C. or drizzle blown by 20 mph winds - I hate it!!

 

'05/'06 was a notch worse than this winter although I am comparing a whole winter with half a winter. If the second half of '14/'15 performs as badly as the first and Guildford, still yet to see it's first flakes of snow, goes completely snow-less, then this winter will be considered even worse then that of 9 years ago.

 

I rate winters on four factors;

(1) Amount of boredom.

(2) Amount of 'unfairness' / 'weather jealousy' etc. Chief component here is missing out on snow while others enjoy (eg. Boxing day '14, 13th~15th January '15)

(3) Level of discomfort from unpleasant conditions (drizzle, wind, damp, cold, ice preventing cycle rides or causing accidents)

(4) Amount of downgrades or promises of snow or other interesting events that are subsequently downgraded and indications of a snowy event that fails.

 

My worst winters locally are: (all have themes of near misses with snow, some worse than others).

2005/2006 (considerable)

2001/2002 

1998/1999

1992/1993 (considerable)

1991/1992 *

1988/1989 *

1987/1988

1983/1984 (considerable, we just missed everything as the rest of the UK was pasted in 3rd week of Jan.)

 

* although these winters were a 'trial' at the time, as they were dry based with little 'unfairness' and very mild ('88/'89) and comfortable ('91/'92) they would be recognised as good outdoor activity winters in the current day. By engaging in outdoor activities and hobbies, such frustrations about the winter will seem less prominent. Having to suffer cold rain and other nasties while the rest of the U.K. is getting snow, being confined to camp is  ot a good way to try to deal with the frustration. 

 

Whereas 1983/1984 disappointment was mostly focused on January, subjectively my most vile winter was 1992/1993 where there were early indications of cold after a cold October to be followed by an indifferent December, zonal mild January (then our 6th consecutive snowless January) with frequent snow up north followed by a very dry, very dull and anticyclonic and very boooring February with plenty of time to simmer & stew about what an awful winter it had been. It looks like these extra-horrendous winters occur roughly once a decade.

 

I wonder how 2014/2015 will shape up? 

 

Here's hoping we will just get a 'good' summer and plenty of thunderstorms after this noxious winter to redress the balance.

[Winter 2014-15 thread]

Where's the Winter Moan Thread or should I start one?

[Xmas day General Weather Chat]

Happy Christmas to everyone.

 

Clear skies with sunshine in Fleet, Hampshire. Min. temp. was 3 deg.C.

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Awesome ride up to the Hogs Back south of Guildford.

Left at 12:56 am just as the first rumbles to south and moon disappearing in veil of As or Cs. Frequent lightning (4-5 to 10-12 / min) ascending to vantage point. Lightning was illuminating Cu towers rather than anvil, although Cs & Ci filled sky by this point. Impressive view of lightning getting nearer towards south (Haselmere etc). Close discharge at 1:18 am and onset of rain. Thought I had better play safe and go lower down. Torrential rain at 1:22 am to 1:30 am - roads were awash in seconds with the rain intensity - although only 5 mm (est) was in gauge on arriving home at 2:45 am. Epic close discharge at entrance to Uni at 1:38 am during the second bout of torrential rain (1:37 am to 1:41 am). Lightning went from yellow to red and broke up like burning fragments of rope disintegrating - also saw this in the 1:18 am discharge). Lovely loud thunder crack to follow. Similar loud thunder at 1:39 am.

Ride around local roads and Manor Park campus watching lightning moving further away to the S.E., east and N.E. although last thunder heard at 2:05 am and stars overhead with anvil to east receding after 2:15 am. Lightning continuing in London direction to after 3:15 am, although clear overhead with moon.

Further thunder to west at 3:37 am becoming more frequent (1-2 / min) but little lightning seen.

The best night of storms overall since 1st/2nd June 1999 (lasted all night with 39.5 mm rain) and lightning frequency and intensity similar to 2nd/3rd July 1999 (lasted an hour with little rain). The overall amount of lightning and thunder probably exceeded the 14th June 1977 storm - a vivid childhood memory. The amount of lightning seen in tonight's event could be the most ever seen in one go!

Great to have another successful event after my disaster with 14th June this year - feel much more satisfied and excited now - also know what an 'all-nighter' feels like now!

Attached photos taken at Hogs Back as main event was approaching between 1:10 am and 1:15 am.

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Bring it on !!

I think I will go out on my bike ride early and go up some local high ground and watch for activity. IOW is only 30~40 miles south and surely flashes will be visible from the Hogs Back. I'm NOT going to miss this one.

Hope the Saturday (and even Sunday) potential continues for this area - I will be VERY happy if we get several hours of severe thunderstorm activity.

[The No Storms Club July 2014 Onwards]

Let's hope Guildford gets it's turn - when I am present - this time.

It is Guilfest weekend - as far as I know, there has never been a thunderstorm during this festival event. Let's hope 2014 changes this! Glastonbury and the festival has had more than it's fair share of T.storms over the years - wish we could follow suit.

If I am lucky enough to witness some excitement this time then I will stop complaining about the latest raw deal of missing that event on 14th June. Other locations (Wattisham) have had more than one severe storm this year - if others can attain this, why can't Guildford?

[The No Storms Club (NSC) 2014 Onwards]

Big hole on the lightning map over Guildford, Surrey in July too no doubt. Bet a months wages that Guildford will get through July without a single discharge - just like in May when the storms were 'there and everywhere' but here.

These evenings 'performance' is typical - high thundery potential for the weekend downgraded as the usual Atlantic dross makes a come-back when it is least wanted, wasn't supposed to have done so, and is only active enough to reduce convective potential with those pathetic weak fronts. At the last minute - areas just to the east get the 'surprise' and the excitement while Guildford misses out - just like last year.

Why can't annoyances like tonight happen when I am on holiday - and 'best storm for decades' (Saturday 14th June) occur when I am at home and can actually watch and appreciate the action? BTW - the promised CCTV footage of the aforementioned storm which I missed was missing from the HDD. Security guard colleague was most upset he could not help me on this matter! Typically 'convenient' as data was wiped from 1715 Friday 13th to 0832 Saturday 14th June.

I really feel there is a higher force that does not want me to enjoy thunderstorms.

This summer is becoming painful and reverting to the annoying rubbish suffered since 2006 onwards generally (really since 1999 for Guildford) - June 2014 had promise and now it is just fizzling out. In other years when I have missed good events when away on holiday there has ALWAYS been another comparable event during the summer - bet 2014 won't bring any other worthwhile thunder event here. Blew it and it wasn't even my fault that I was on holiday - feel I am being punished.

As for the humid muck - wish it would just produce storms here or roll on autumn and have some nice sunny dry clear N.W.lys with NOBODY getting any storms!!

[The No Storms Club (NSC) 2014 Onwards]

The 1999 event I was referring to was the night of the 1st / 2nd June.

I measured 39.5 mm rain overnight from 3 separate periods of torrential rain and thunder.

Below is my report for that night, copied from the June 1999 station notes.

"Wednesday June 2nd: Very stormy night. Three main areas of activity, preceded by light rain and slight thunderstorm at 2300 GMT (1/6) to 2330 GMT. Torrential rain and thunderstorm, 0120 GMT to 0210 GMT with overhead lightning at 0147 GMT. Extremely heavy rain with much surface water 0350 GMT to 0410 GMT, notably vivid lightning. Last burst at 0525 GMT to 0540 GMT. Torrential rain with little thunder. Daily rainfall total 39.5mm (1.56ins), where 35.5mm (1.40ins) fell 2300 GMT (1/6) to 0600 GMT, and 4mm (0.16ins) fell in heavy squally shower at 1236 GMT to 1244 GMT."

Before this storm arrived - my bedside lamp was making odd clicking and fizzing noises suggesting much charge in the air and a portent of the excitement coming over the next few hours.

1999 was an excellent year for thunderstorms and although I missed events while away on holiday in August, I still witnessed the main events in that year. 2006 was also a thundery year (23 days in '99 and '06) but the events were not as spectacular as in '99. I also (yet again) missed the years severest event on 13th August '06 while away in Cornwall.

I therefore firmly state that 1999 was the last good year for storms in this area. There were good thunder events on;

19th May

29th May

2nd June

3rd July - lightning and thunder only (Fleet, Hants) and only distant lightning at Guildford.

1st August

9th August - missed event while on holiday (told it was more 'thundery rain' than a thunderstorm.

5th September (no rain)

22nd September

[The No Storms Club (NSC) 2014 Onwards]

Still bl**** waiting.

Guildford hit by best storm since 1999 early on Saturday morning - 18 hours before I arrived back from holiday.

I posted back in May about this incessant bad luck of missing events at home when away on holiday - This annoyance and curse never seems to go away.

Back for the summer now - so it's probably back to weeks of boring humid muck without storms here while the usual (Lincolnshire) areas get the 'goods'.

Absolutely livid.

Fed up with people saying, "did you see the storm"?. No I bl**** didn't - nothing severe happens in Guildford when I'm here.

Why can't I have a holiday which;

(a) Is not ruined by poor weather (eg. drizzle, cloud, wind and lack of sunshine). 2013.

(b) Is not ruined by missing some exciting event at home while away, having had to sit through garbage, like that suffered in May where everywhere else gets the storms and Guildford misses out completely. 2006, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2014.

© Produces an interesting event at the holiday destination at the time when I am there - not the night before I arrive (2013, 2014) or week later after I depart (2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2013) etc. Seems most other people have an exciting event when they holiday and they DON'T MISS ANY EVENTS AT HOME WHILE AWAY.

Hopefully the abomination that has cursed me with this endless run of bad luck associated with sods law and never being in the right area at the right time, might get hit by a +ve CG and destroyed. I can then finally witness a decent thunder event where more normal statistical odds operate meaning a greater chance of being in the right area at the right time.

Sorry for the rant but I have had a gut-full of this type of letdown in recent years - lousy thunder-free summers like 2010 and 2011, thundery summers like 2012 and 2013 where local areas missed everything, horrid days like 28th June 2012 seeing the usual eastern areas and much of northern England get USA-mid-west style storms while all Guildford sees is a pathetic puff of wind and the humid filth reduced in the fresher post-cold front air-mass, impressive rainfall events while away on holiday as in 2011, 2012 (and now 2014) where the rest of the summer yielded nothing.

Let's hope 2014 can deliver - for everyone else here it already has - last time I saw anything worthwhile was in 2009 and really back as far as 1999 for anything prolonged (missed the main storms in 2006, the last above average year for thunder days here - as usual).

[Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards]

Nice little development over west Surrey at present. Started as heavy shower at 18:51 with some hail at 18:52. First thunder heard at 19:03. There have been 10 rumbles of thunder so far (19:26) making this the best thunder event of the year so far.

[Convective / storm Discussion - 5th June 2014 onwards]

Boreathon this week.

Storms guaranteed in 2 weeks time in S.E. I will be away on holiday in Cornwall and bound to miss the year's best event at home while away.

So convinced that I might miss something I have arranged with security guard at work to keep CCTV footage of the car park so I watch the storm when I get home! All I need is the time of the event and the video can be accessed - a bit like watching a missed much loved TV programme.

Looks like another unsettled June holiday like the dirges form last year back to 2007. (Sorry to be off-topic in this section).

[The No Storms Club (NSC) 2014 Onwards]

2nd let-down in 36 hours. Funny how the thunder forecast never comes to fruition here but the downgrades are always set in stone while elsewhere gets the thunder event promised and upgrades.

I bet a years wages that Guildford sees out May without a single clap of thunder - not even one of our 'one rumble wonders' which usually seem to be the best we can muster here.

Furthermore, I bet another years wages that when I go on holiday to Cornwall next month, that is when Guildford gets clobbered by the best storm for years while Cornwall gets the usual dross when I attempt to have a holiday and I miss the excitement craved all year. Then another summer of garbage like the last 7 years. Even last year wasn't great here and no thunder was heard in August which was supposedly a thundery month.

Hate U.K. weather like this and seriously wish I could go USA or even European storm chasing just to get my fix then perhaps I would not be so bored with the pathetic let-downs and constant 'unfair' disappointment and 'sods law' frustration which makes up 99.9% of events here.

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013]

First thunder heard to west at 20:21. Clear sky overhead and to N.E. Lightning first seen 20:25 followed by closer thunder at 20:27. Clear sky, stars and several aircraft lights (looking like they had flown through the Cb)to N.E.with sky filling in.

4 quite bright flashes, 3 without thunder, to west between 20:28~20:34, the 20:34 flash followed by fairly loud thunder and sudden heavy rain. Also, fairly windy (15~20 mph) after a less breezy period earlier in evening.

Bright lightning with lovely loud thunder and booming vibration felt in window ledge at 20:38. Rain eases at 20:45 with about 5.0 mm so far.

Less thunder to follow with rumbles at 20:47, 21:15, 21:30 & 21:36. Rain is increasing as I write 21:37.

Surprised the Met-Office and other lightning detectors are not showing MANY more discharges. This event is by far the best for duration and amount of thunder in Guildford this year! More than our usual one-rumble affairs.

[Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013]

Isn't it great when some of the models finally get a thunderstorm right?

30 mins of flashes and bangs here in Eastbourne last night, great stuff!! clapping.gif

(Sorry - quote feature wouldn't work, so I had to Copy & Paste COAST's remark).

Be a miracle in itself if the model for an interesting event leads to this area seeing a thunderstorm. For Guildford 2013 has been as bad as all the other years since 2006, except this year there has either been repeated hope followed by failures with the models proving right for other locations who get their storms while we completely miss them or failure of the model altogether.

This year is worse than others in the 2007~2012 storm-less era, as there has been so much activity elsewhere this year and Guildford has missed out EVERY time.

Wouldn't be so annoying if everywhere had to suffer a rubbish year for thunder activity like in 2010 where there was little activity anywhere and the year was 'boring' rather than 'unfair'.

[The No Storms Club (NSC) 2014 Onwards]

2013 - the worst year I have ever known for missing out. This area missed the snow in March and we have had no major thunder outbreak at all. There have been repeated forecast failures, lets downs and 'unfair' situations.

Big deal - we got a 'good' summer - it was only exceptionally dry thanks to missing all the thunder outbreaks.

Absolutely livid this evening - horrid day at work and come home hoping that SOMETHING might develop after a week of all the excitement pushing north over Devon and Cornwall. Btw - one of those storms that was supposed to affect the S.E. on 6th September hit my holiday spot - lightning hit a flagpole at the caravan park at Par - of course all I got when I was there 10 days later was poxy drizzle.

So tonight, after the load of rubbish last night and another no-show at lunchtime today (both given warnings even in this area) there are interesting developments over north France and the English Channel due south of this area - after a week of north movement - hopes are raised - Guildford might actually get something - no, not bl**dy likely - not in this dreadful year - everything starts to move N.E. and guess where is destined to completely miss out???

3.6 mm rain in one week from a depression in this synoptic set up is pitiful and pathetic.

Sorry to complain but I have had a gutfull of this dreadful year and missing out ALL THE TIME. I wouldn't be so bad if there was just ONE event and the usual areas missed out for a change.

2013 - S.E. UK weather at its worst. Summer and autumn 2013 for interesting rain and thunder events is what that dreadful snowless winter 1983~1984 was like for missing out frustration with no snow in southern England - I NEVER want a repeat of that horrid cold zonality and if that's the theme for this winter after the dreadful lack of excitement in 2013, I will end up bonkers in the funny farm - that is if I am not bonkers already.